Millwall vs Derby Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 31 October 2026
🔊 Millwall have had an inconsistent start to the season, winning just two of their last ten matches. They sit in mid-table, still some way off the automatic promotion places. Derby County are currently in the relegation zone, which puts pressure on the visitors to pick up points early in the campaign. The key contrast in this match is the difference in situations: the hosts are in a relatively comfortable battle to improve their position, while the visitors are forced to respond to a worrying one.
Millwall's Advantage
Millwall beat Derby County 1-0 in a Championship match. The shot count was almost level at 15-14, but the hosts were more accurate, putting four on target to Derby's one.
📊 Across 36 official meetings, Millwall have the upper hand: 15 wins to Derby County's 9, with 12 draws. The goal difference stands at 40-36.
Head-to-head statistics Millwall - Derby
Millwall: a side that concedes more often than they score
Millwall lost their last Championship match away at Portsmouth, going down 2-1. Despite that, they had more shots than the hosts - 10 to 7 - but only one of those was on target.
Millwall have been unconvincing both in their overall win-loss record and in recent form, winning just twice in their last ten matches while losing five. Their average over that same period is 1.3 goals scored per game, though they have been conceding even more - 1.6 per match. Despite sitting in mid-table, the team have shown no consistent improvement either in attack or defence. Their motivation in terms of the table is limited: they are eight points off the promotion places, the season is still early and no individual match is yet critical to Millwall's prospects.
Match Results: Millwall
Derby County: Fighting for Survival
Derby County's previous Championship match ended in a 1-1 draw away at Sheffield United. The opposition had 25 shots to Derby County's 11, with 10 on target; the Derby County goalkeeper made 10 saves.
Derby County are having serious difficulty picking up points: one win and six defeats in their last ten matches reflect a troubled situation within the squad. Their scoring is suffering too - just 0.7 goals per game on average, while conceding at a high rate of 1.7. Their away form does stand out as a relative positive, though: they have scored at least once in ten of their last eleven away Championship matches. Their league position demands they fight for every point - Derby County need results now to climb out of the relegation zone.
Match Results: Derby
Match Result Prediction
Millwall have not lost to Derby County in their last seven head-to-head meetings. This season Millwall have four wins from 12 matches, while Derby County have one; the visitors have also lost three of their six away games. However, Millwall have won only two of their six home matches, so their advantage cannot be considered convincing. We are backing a Millwall win at odds of 1.66*.
Goals Prediction / Total
In the last eight head-to-head meetings between these sides, there have been fewer than 3.5 goals. Derby County average one goal per away match this season, and 0.7 per match across their last ten matches overall. Millwall, meanwhile, average 1.83 goals per home match, and Derby County concede 1.83 per away match - which adds some uncertainty to the case for a low-scoring game. We're going with Total Goals - Under 3.5 at odds of 1.37*.
Corners Prediction
Millwall have taken fewer than 7.5 corners in 12 of their last 13 head-to-head meetings with Derby County. In six of their last seven home head-to-head matches, they also stayed under 6.5 corners. Both figures come from the same head-to-head record, so they cannot be treated as independent pieces of evidence. Our selection is Millwall Team Total Corners - Under 7.5 at 1.54*.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Derby County have scored in 10 of their last 11 away matches, while Millwall have scored in 11 of their last 12 head-to-head meetings. Over their last ten home matches, Millwall have conceded an average of 1.5 goals, and Derby County have conceded an average of 1.8 goals in their last ten away matches. What tempers the prediction is Derby County's low overall scoring rate over their last ten matches - an average of 0.7 goals. We're going with Both Teams to Score - Yes at 1.81*.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm's calculations, the three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10.96%), 2-1 (10.45%) and 1-0 (10.13%). The highest probability belongs to 1-1. The difference between the first and third options is 0.83 percentage points.
*Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
The match narrative centres on Derby County's away trend: despite modest scoring numbers overall this season, the team have scored at least once in the majority of their Championship away fixtures. Even with a difficult league position and struggles to pick up points, Derby County have retained the ability to find the net on the road. Millwall concede regularly - their average goals conceded across their last ten matches is above one per game. In that context, the visitors are expected to get on the scoresheet at least once, backed by a consistent away scoring record and the motivation to climb out of the relegation zone. The bet is Derby County Team Total - Over 0.5. Predicted score: 2-1.
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Betting Tips: Millwall - Derby
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