St Pauli vs Leverkusen Prediction 27 September 2025
🔊 How will St. Pauli respond to their first defeat of the season? On Saturday, the Hamburg club hosts Bayer Leverkusen at their home ground, the Millerntor-Stadion. Since Kasper Hjulmand took charge, Bayer remain unbeaten, though their performances have yet to reach the heights achieved under Xabi Alonso over the past two seasons. Last year, Bayer failed to secure a win away at St. Pauli, and despite being favorites, our prediction leans towards a different outcome.
Head-to-Head
📊 Last season, Bayer defeated St. Pauli 2-1 in the first round at the BayArena, but in the return fixture at the Millerntor, last season's newcomers put up a strong fight, resulting in a 1-1 draw.
Head-to-head statistics St Pauli - Leverkusen
St. Pauli Team Overview
🟤 The "Browns" suffered their first defeat of the season in the fourth round, falling to Stuttgart away (0-2). The hosts took the lead shortly before halftime and doubled their advantage five minutes into the second half. St. Pauli's goalkeeper Nikola Vasil made a strong impression by saving a penalty from a Stuttgart player in the 24th minute, keeping the score at 0-0. Notably, this was St. Pauli's first away game in another city after four rounds-all previous matches were played in their home city of Hamburg. Ahead of their clash with Bayer, the "Browns" sit in 5th place with 7 points.
Match Results: St. Pauli
Bayer Leverkusen Team Overview
🔴 Bayer Leverkusen were on the brink of a home victory in the fourth round against Borussia Mönchengladbach (1-1). Leverkusen controlled the game from the outset. The first half was tough but lacked clear chances. Despite strong support from the stands, after the break, both sides continued to largely cancel each other out. In the 70th minute, Ernest Poku made a powerful run down the right flank, and though Patrik Schick couldn't finish his cross, Tillman was there to slot it into the net, marking his second goal for the club. After that, Bayer barely created any chances. However, in the second minute of added time, the "Pharmacists" let the win slip away: Gladbach equalized from a corner. As a result, Bayer had to settle for another draw-their second in the league and third of the season (including a 2-2 with Copenhagen in the Champions League). The team currently sits 11th with 5 points after four rounds.
Match Results: Bayer Leverkusen
Latest news
St. Pauli
🎙 Head coach Alexander Blessin: "We can't be satisfied. Stuttgart had a higher energy level in the first half and slightly outperformed us. We were actually prepared for this, but it's one thing to talk about it and another to face it on the field. You could feel our anxiety. In many situations, we made the wrong decisions, hid when in possession, and didn't play boldly. The second half was a bit better. We had two or three chances, but talking about a comeback would be incorrect. Stuttgart deserved the win. Now, we'll focus on the next game and try to unlock our potential again."
📝 St. Pauli have extended Hauke Wahl's contract, which was set to expire at the end of this season. The 31-year-old center-back joined the club from Holstein Kiel at the start of the 2023/24 season. He helped the "Brown-and-Whites" earn promotion to the Bundesliga in his first season and then avoid relegation in his second. To date, Wahl has made 77 appearances for the club: 37 in the Bundesliga, 33 in the 2. Bundesliga, and 7 in the DFB-Pokal. Over these two seasons, he missed only two matches and almost always started.
❌ Team captain Jackson Irvine needs more time to recover; the midfielder has intensified his running sessions. Ricky-Jade Jones is slightly ahead of schedule and is already working with the ball. Defender Karol Mets may be included in the squad after a lengthy absence.
Bayer Leverkusen
🎙 Kasper Hjulmand's thoughts on the draw with Borussia: "We're really disappointed with the missed opportunities and conceding from a set-piece. We were too passive. However, I'm starting to understand the team and the players better. We're heading into our first full week of training, and that will help us moving forward."
❌ Martin Terrier, Nathan Tella, and Ezequiel Palacios will be unavailable to assist the team in Hamburg. Robert Andrich and Ezequiel Fernandez are expected to return after their suspensions.
🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards
The main referee for this match is Martin Petersen, making his Bundesliga debut after officiating in the lower leagues. In terms of discipline, St. Pauli have received 8 yellow cards over 4 matches (averaging 2 per game), while Bayer have picked up 9 (2.25 per game). We recommend considering a bet on over 3.5 yellow cards. This bet has hit in all of Bayer's league matches and in three out of four matches for St. Pauli.
⚽ Goal Prediction
This is St. Pauli's best start to a season in their history, having collected 7 points from the first three rounds. Blessin's squad is confident at the Millerntor Stadium and capable of scoring against Bayer, who have conceded in every match of the current league campaign and during their Champions League outing in Copenhagen. Our prediction: St. Pauli will score a goal.
🚩 Corner Prediction
After four rounds, St. Pauli average 4.25 corners per match, while Bayer average 5 corners per game. Our bet: St. Pauli's individual total under 5.5 corners. This outcome has been successful in all matches this season.
Editorial Prediction
St. Pauli have already shown their resilience against favorites - in the opening round, they denied Borussia Dortmund a victory at the "Millerntor". Bayer Leverkusen are currently less consistent than Dortmund, and their away performances appear vulnerable: they've conceded in every match this season. However, their attack remains potent, having scored in each game.
Therefore, our prediction: both teams to score (yes). This match could go either way in terms of goals, but we're betting on an exciting contest and predict a final score of 2-1 in favor of the visitors.
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Betting Tips: St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen
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in 9 of last 10 home games (Bundesliga).in 15 of last 16 away games (Bundesliga).in last 11 games.in last 9 games (Bundesliga).in 12 of last 13 St. Pauli home games (Bundesliga).
in 7 of last 8 Martin Petersen games.
Comparison of Teams Stats
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