Kilmarnock vs Hearts Prediction 19 September 2026
🔊 Hearts have made an excellent start to the season and are sitting in the top group, while Kilmarnock are bottom after a poor run of results. Both sides still have plenty to play for: the hosts are only three points behind the leaders, while the visitors are in contention for first place. The contrast between the visitors' attacking output and the hosts' weak defence makes the match particularly interesting in terms of how it might unfold and how many goals there could be.
Head-to-Head
📊 In 48 official meetings between Kilmarnock and Hearts, the hosts have won 21 times, the visitors 15, with 12 draws. Kilmarnock have the edge in goals scored - 60 to Hearts' 52. On average, 1.02 goals are scored in the first half and 1.31 in the second, giving an overall match average of 2.33 goals per game.
Head-to-head statistics Kilmarnock - Hearts
Kilmarnock Team Overview
Kilmarnock are in serious difficulty: they have lost four of their last five matches, with just one win and one draw. Over their last ten games, they have managed only three wins against six defeats. Their attack has been inconsistent - they are averaging 0.83 goals per game across the season, and exactly one goal per game over the last ten matches.
The main problem is defensive. Kilmarnock are conceding 2.33 goals per match, a figure supported by their average of 1.7 conceded over the last ten games. Despite a moderate level of competitive motivation and a relatively small gap to the leading group, their current form gives little reason to expect a confident performance against one of the stronger sides in the league.
Match Results: Kilmarnock
Heart of Midlothian Team Overview
Hearts have been in consistent form, winning four of their last five matches with just one defeat - a strong run of results right now. Over their last ten games, they have won seven, drawn two and lost one, averaging 2.6 goals per match, which is one of the best attacking returns in the division at this stage of the season.
Defensively they have also been solid, conceding an average of just 1.2 goals per game across those ten matches, with only one defeat - a balance between attacking output and discipline at the back. The motivation to stay close to first place is pushing Hearts to keep up their points-scoring pace.
Match Results: Heart of Midlothian
Outcome Prediction
Kilmarnock have covered the handicap (+1.5) at home in 25 of their last 26 head-to-head meetings with Hearts, which points to a consistent level of competitiveness from the hosts in this fixture. Hearts, meanwhile, have not been particularly reliable on the road, with just one win and two defeats from three away matches this season. Against that clear trend, Kilmarnock - Handicap +1.5 looks a dependable option at odds of 1.42*.
Total Goals Prediction
In 15 of the last 16 head-to-head meetings at Kilmarnock's ground, the total has come in under 3.5 goals. Kilmarnock this season are averaging just 0.33 goals scored and 3.33 conceded per home match, while Hearts away from home are averaging 1.67 scored and 1.67 conceded, which gives no clear indication of a high-scoring game. Given the consistent head-to-head trend and the absence of any statistical contradictions, a bet on Total Goals - Under 3.5 looks justified at odds of 1.57*.
Corners Prediction
Hearts have won more than 5.5 corners in 6 of their last 7 Scottish Premiership matches. This is a strong and recent trend that is backed up by the team's current attacking output. The price on Hearts Team Total Corners - Over 5.5 is 1.6*.
Reliable Bet
Hearts have gone unbeaten in 9 of their last 10 matches, which points to consistent form. Given Kilmarnock's poor home record this season (no wins and three defeats at home), the Double Chance - X2 looks very reliable at odds of 1.16*.
Correct Score Prediction
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm identifies three most likely scorelines: 1-1 (10.07%), 1-2 (8.82%) and 0-2 (8.47%). The most probable outcome among them is a 1-1 draw, though the chances of Hearts winning by one or two goals are also fairly high. The probabilities across these options are fairly close, reflecting a moderately cautious match scenario.
*Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
The match looks set to be shaped by Hearts' strong attack and Kilmarnock's defensive inconsistency - the visitors have been highly productive throughout the season, and their away matches frequently feature plenty of goals (Total Goals - Over 2.5 landed in twelve of their last thirteen away matches). The trend is reinforced by the visitors' current form: they are scoring well above the league average both at home and away, while the hosts' defence has been regularly found wanting even against less threatening opposition. In our view, the best bet is Total Goals - Over 2.5. Predicted score: 1-2.
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Betting Tips: Kilmarnock - Heart of Midlothian
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Comparison of Teams Stats
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