Venezia vs Fiorentina Prediction 11 September 2026
📢 The fourth round of Serie A gets under way with a match between two sides who have made a genuinely poor start to the season. Venezia and Fiorentina are both without a point after three matches and sit in the relegation zone. At least one of them will end that run in this fixture, but which side will be the first to get off the mark? That question only adds to the interest surrounding the match at the Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
🔁 This prediction is updated on the day of the match. Keep an eye on the Latest News section.
Head-to-Head
📊 Over the last 20 years, the two sides have met just four times. Venezia have a slight edge, with two wins to Fiorentina's one, and one match ending in a draw. The most recent meetings came in the 2024/25 season, when Venezia - despite subsequently being relegated from Serie A - did not lose to Fiorentina on either occasion: first drawing 0-0 away, then winning 2-1 at home.
Head-to-head statistics Venezia - Fiorentina
Venezia Team Overview
🟢 Venezia, the best side in Serie B last season, are finding life in the top flight extremely difficult so far - they have lost all three of their opening matches. The defeat at Milan was understandable enough given the circumstances (0-2), but the losses to Lecce (0-2) and Frosinone (2-3) were matches in which the Lagunari could reasonably have expected more. In both of those games Venezia actually played the better football, yet came away with nothing.
🟠 Last weekend the club faced Frosinone away. Venezia had a poor first half and went into the break 0-2 down, but came out strongly after the interval, pulled it back to 2-2 and kept pressing. However, on 83 minutes Giovanni Stroppa's side conceded the decisive goal and could not recover. The statistics suggest they deserved at least a point: 61% possession, 15-13 in shots, 4-3 in chances created, and an xG of 2.25 against 1.27.
Match Results: Venezia
Fiorentina Team Overview
🟣 Only three rounds in, and Serie A has already seen its first managerial sacking. Fiorentina dismissed Fabio Grosso, and the decision is easy to understand: under the 48-year-old, the team played four matches across all competitions and produced very poor results. In the league, the Viola lost to Roma (0-4), Frosinone (0-3) and Torino (1-2), with their only win coming in the Coppa Italia against Benevento (4-1). That left Fiorentina bottom of Serie A - despite the club spending around €150 million on transfers in the summer. After last season's battle against relegation, the board clearly had no appetite for a repeat and moved quickly with drastic action. Paolo Vanoli has returned as head coach; under him, the team performed very well towards the end of last season.
⚪ The home defeat to Torino proved to be the decisive moment for Grosso. In terms of play, Fiorentina created noticeably more chances and even took the lead early in the second half. The hosts did not sit back and continued to push forward, but Torino made far better use of their opportunities. Fiorentina conceded the second goal on 82 minutes, and there was still time to respond, but the team were unable to mount a proper final assault.
Match Results: Fiorentina
Latest news
Venezia
❌ Venezia head into the fourth round with several injury concerns. Armel Bella-Kotchap is recovering from a muscular injury, Bartol Franjić is unavailable with a shoulder injury, and Marin Šverko continues his recovery from a thigh injury. Toma Bašić is expected to return soon after a muscular problem, while Andrea Adorante remains out with a back issue.
Fiorentina
❌ Fiorentina have two injury concerns. Christ Inao Oulaï picked up a leg injury in the previous round and remains doubtful, while Fabiano Parisi continues his long recovery from a cruciate ligament injury and is not expected to return until early December.
🔁 Update - 11 September, 5:28 UTC:
- Christ Inao Oulaï has been included in the squad for the match. According to Tutto Venezia Sport, the Ivorian's participation had been in doubt due to the injury. However, Vanoli has included the 20-year-old in the group travelling to Venice. Inao Oulaï has started just once this season, though he has featured in all four official matches. The midfielder has not contributed any goals or assists, and picked up a yellow card in the cup match.
🔁 Update - 11 September, 8:29 UTC:
- According to La Gazzetta dello Sport, Paolo Vanoli will entrust his defence in his first match back to familiar faces - Ranieri, Pongračič and Dodô, all three of whom played under him at the end of last season. Valdepenas will also start, though he has not previously worked with Vanoli.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Predicted starting XI - Venezia: Stanković - Haps, Halhal, Schingtienne - Correia, Sohm, Busio, Kike Pérez, Hainaut - Yeboah, Adams.
📋 Predicted starting XI - Fiorentina: de Gea - Valdepeñas, Ranieri, Pongračič, Dodô - Atta, Fagioli, Ndour - Gonçalves, Beto, Mastantuono.
⚽️ Goals Prediction
One of the main reasons for Venezia's and Fiorentina's poor starts has been weak defensive play. The hosts have conceded seven goals in three rounds, while the visitors have let in nine - the worst record in the league. It seems unlikely that either coaching staff will have fully resolved those problems in the space of a week, so Both Teams to Score - Yes at 1.65* looks a logical option.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Venezia regularly earn corners in home matches - a tendency that stretches back to last season. In their last seven home games, the Lagunari delivered at least four corners. In the current Serie A campaign they have so far played only one home match, against Lecce, and on that occasion they reached the corner flag five times. Venezia Team Total Corners - Over 3.5 at 1.67* looks an interesting option.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
Venezia make for an appealing option for those betting on high card counts. They picked up three yellow cards in the match against Milan, and four in the previous round against Frosinone - not counting the head coach. Venezia Team Total Yellow Cards - Over 1.5 is worth considering here.
* Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐️ Editor's Prediction
According to the bookmakers, Fiorentina are considered slight favourites for this match, though that is largely down to the visitors having a stronger squad. In terms of actual football, the Florentines are certainly not outperforming Venezia right now - the hosts have actually looked the more interesting side at times, they just haven't been able to convert good performances into points. Both teams see this match as a good opportunity to finally end their poor run, so the game should be competitive in both directions. Our main bet is Both Teams to Score - Yes. Correct score prediction: 2-2.
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Betting Tips: Venezia - Fiorentina
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