Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 10 October 2026
🔊 The two sides went into the international break in very different form. Alaves suffered two consecutive defeats before holding their own in the Basque derby against Athletic, coming away from Bilbao with a 0-0 draw. Atletico, by contrast, hit their stride just before the break: after a poor result at San Mames, Diego Simeone's side won three league rounds in a row, with Real Madrid their most recent victims, beaten 2-1.
Three weeks without La Liga is unlikely to have made preparation straightforward for Atletico. As many as 17 players left for international duty, leaving Simeone to reassemble his main group piece by piece. Alaves, meanwhile, welcome the favourites to Mendizorroza, a ground where they have already managed to cause problems for several strong opponents.
🔁 This prediction will be updated as important news emerges. Check back closer to kick-off.
Atletico have claimed victory in more than half of their head-to-head meetings.
📊 The two sides have met 26 times in official matches. Atletico have won 14, Alaves six, with six draws. The historical advantage lies clearly with the Madrid club, though in recent years trips to Vitoria-Gasteiz have rarely been straightforward for them.
In the previous five meetings, Alaves took points off the favourites twice and won once. The average total across the entire head-to-head history is just 1.96 goals, and both teams have scored in only 35% of those matches.
Head-to-head statistics Alaves - Atletico Madrid
“Mendizorroza” has transformed Alaves into a completely different side.
Alaves went into the international break in sixth place, with three wins, two draws and two defeats, 11 points and a goal difference of +5. Their recent form has dipped somewhat - after thrashing Osasuna, they lost to Racing and Valencia before drawing with Athletic, managing just one goal across those three matches.
At home, though, the picture is different. In four matches at Mendizorroza, the hosts have won three, scored nine goals and conceded just three. They have beaten Getafe, Villarreal and Osasuna, with their only slip coming against Valencia. For Quique Sánchez Flores' side, their own ground has already become a reliable source of points.
Match Results: Deportivo Alaves
Atletico suffered a heavy defeat and then shifted into turbo mode
Atletico have 16 points from seven matches - five wins, one draw and one defeat. They have scored 16 goals and conceded seven. Their response to the 0-3 loss to Athletic was particularly strong: the next three La Liga matches brought wins over Real Sociedad, Osasuna and Real Madrid with a combined score of 9-1.
The summer additions are also beginning to make their mark. Jonathan David scored three goals in his first 160 minutes of league football. Atletico are not just picking up points - the team now have more ways to break down defences. The schedule gets significantly busier from here, though, so Simeone will need to balance the result of the upcoming match against keeping the squad fresh for what follows. Next up after that is a Champions League fixture against Manchester United.
Match Results: Atletico Madrid
Latest news
Deportivo Alaves
🚑 Ville Koski has suffered a muscle injury and will miss the match against Atletico. Facundo Garces and Mikel Rodriguez are also unavailable.
Atletico Madrid
✅ Alejandro Grimaldo has been recovering from a hip problem, Alexander Sorloth is closing in on his first appearance of the season, and Pablo Barrios is back in training after an injury.
Predicted Lineups
Predicted starting XI for Alaves: Sivera - Castro, Tenaglia, Valentini - Rebbach, Ibanez, Blanco, Suarez, Pérez - Boye, Martinez.
Predicted starting XI for Atletico: Oblak - Pubill, Romero, Hancko - Llorente, Cardoso, Koke, Grimaldo - Simeone, Kang-In - David.
⚽ Goals Prediction
Atletico rarely produce a dull match. At least 3 goals have featured in 6 of their 7 La Liga matches this season, and since the defeat in Bilbao the run has been unbroken: Real Sociedad, Osasuna and Real Madrid have conceded 9 goals between them against Simeone's side.
Alaves can also contribute to the scoring. At home, the hosts average 2.25 goals per match, and the only game without a goal was the defeat to Valencia. Their defence has now been weakened by the loss of Villi Koski, who had not missed a single matchday before his injury. Keeping out one of the most prolific attacks in the division without their first-choice centre-back will be harder. Bet: Total Goals - Over 2.5 at 1.85*.
🚩 Corner Kick Prediction
Over seven league rounds, Atletico have taken 35 corners - exactly 5.0 per match. They earned at least 5 in four of those matches, reaching 8 on two occasions. There is also a useful reference point from head-to-head meetings: in their last three matches against Alaves, Atletico took at least 5 corners. After the break, the quality of their final ball may suffer, but their territorial dominance is unlikely to go anywhere. Our pick: Atletico Madrid Team Total Corners - Over 4.5 at 1.60.*
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
Over the opening seven rounds, Alaves have picked up 14 yellow cards and Atletico 12. The gap is small, but the hosts have committed 95 fouls compared to 87 for the Madrid side - and that is despite the opposition having more of the ball. At Mendizorroza, Alaves will regularly need to break up the opposition's build-up in midfield and cover ground after losing possession. Atlético, meanwhile, are not among the most physical sides in the division. We're backing Alaves to win the yellow card count - Handicap (0).
🚀 Player Statistics Bet
Jonathan David has taken virtually no time to settle in Spain. The Canadian has played just 160 minutes in La Liga but has already scored 3 goals in 3 matches. Now he faces a defence without Ville Koski. Alaves have enough trouble dealing with powerful forwards even at full strength. The bet: Jonathan David to Score.
😱 Risky bet
Both teams like to start sharply. Alaves have scored 9 goals at home and have no intention of turning the visitors' arrival into 90 minutes of defending. Atletico, after their poor September, have become noticeably more aggressive and now look to establish an advantage early.
An early goal could completely change the character of the match. The hosts, backed by Mendizorroza, are unlikely to sit back for long, and the Madrid side have enough quality to punish any space that opens up before the break. Prediction: Both Teams to Score in the 1st Half at 4.05.*
🎯 Reliable Bet
All 7 of Atletico's matches in this season's league have featured at least two goals. After the opening rounds, the Madrid side have only improved in attack and currently average 2.29 goals per game. Alaves at home are no strangers to scoring either: 9 goals in 4 matches goes a long way to explaining why the team have climbed so high in the table. We're backing Total Goals - Over 1.5 at 1.25.*
👀 If the match doesn't go to script
Alaves have shown that they are not particularly bothered by the opposition's reputation on their own ground. Across four home league rounds they have taken 9 points from a possible 12, beaten Villarreal and conceded just 3 goals. So any problems Atletico face in getting their internationals back will immediately boost the hosts' chances. On top of that, Madrid are coming into this match after a long break and have had almost no opportunity to train with a full squad. Bet: Alaves not to lose at 2.00.*
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐️ Editorial Prediction
Atletico are objectively the stronger side and were in good form before the break, but a trip to Vitoria-Gasteiz is not an easy way to keep a run going. Alaves have won 3 of their 4 home matches and scored 9 goals at home. The loss of Ville Koski leaves the hosts' defence more vulnerable, though Quique Sánchez Flores' side are capable of causing problems at the other end.
Atletico have even more going for them: 16 goals in 7 league rounds, three consecutive wins before the break, and Jonathan David, who has slotted straight into the attack. That said, the return of 17 internationals stretched almost right up to the trip itself, so expecting a perfect performance from the visitors carries its own risks. This looks like a match in which Atletico should create enough to score, but Alaves at home are capable of taking at least one chance of their own. Predicted score: 1-2. Main prediction: Both Teams to Score - Yes.
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Betting Tips: Deportivo Alaves - Atletico Madrid
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