Chicago Fire vs New-York City Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 10 October 2026
🔉 Chicago Fire come into this match without any particular pressure in terms of their league position, while New York City are holding on to a playoff spot in MLS and need points to stay there. Statistically, neither side has been prolific over a longer run, and the visitors' recent form raises questions: New York City have won just once in their last ten matches. Chicago Fire, meanwhile, score consistently at home, though their defence remains vulnerable. The key contrast is the difference in each side's league situation and their current attacking output.
Head-to-Head
New York City beat Chicago Fire 3-1 in their MLS match 25 July 2026, with all four goals scored before half-time. Despite nearly identical xG figures - 1.48 to 1.47 - Chicago Fire had more shots on target, 5 to 3.
📊 Across 26 official meetings, New York City have won 15, Chicago Fire three, with eight draws. At home, Chicago Fire have lost just three of their ten head-to-head matches.
Head-to-head statistics Chicago Fire - New-York City
Chicago Fire Team Overview
Chicago Fire's most recent MLS match on 7 October 2026 saw them beat Vancouver Whitecaps 3-1 at home. The hosts had 22 shots to Vancouver's 15 and significantly outperformed their opponents in xG - 2.97 to 1.35.
Chicago Fire have put up average scoring numbers this season, finding the net at a rate of 1.81 goals per game while conceding 1.44 on average. Their last five matches have been inconsistent - two wins, two defeats and a draw. Over their last ten games, the club have recorded three wins, three defeats and four draws; their average goals scored at home (1.6) is higher than away, though their defence has been leaking (1.7 conceded per game over that run). Despite having little to play for towards the end of the season, Chicago continue to play openly at home and are regularly involved in goal exchanges.
Match Results: Chicago Fire
New-York City Team Overview
New York City's away match against Atlanta United on 26 September 2026 ended in a 2-2 draw. In that MLS game, the visitors had more shots - 9 to 7 - though Atlanta were more accurate, putting 5 on target to New York City's 3.
New York City are struggling for points - just one win from their last ten matches, with five defeats and four draws, points to a dip in form. In their last five games they have won once, lost twice and drawn twice; their attack rarely produces more than one goal per game (averaging 1.1), while their defence has been marginally more reliable than the home side's (1.4 conceded). The trend further underlines the attacking problems: they have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in six of their last seven MLS matches, which significantly limits the visitors' potential even with the playoff places at stake.
Match Results: New-York City
Total Goals Prediction
In 11 of New York City's last 12 matches, the Total Goals - Under 3.5 bet has landed, pointing to fairly low-scoring games when they are involved. Both teams are posting average figures for goals scored and conceded this season: Chicago Fire average 1.81 scored and 1.44 conceded, while New York City average 1.52 scored and 1.33 conceded. Total Goals - Under 4.5 has also come in in all 12 of their last 12 head-to-head meetings. On that basis, we are backing Total Goals - Under 3.5 at odds of 1.61*.
Corner Kick Prediction
New York City have taken more than 3.5 corners in 8 of their last 9 away head-to-head meetings with Chicago Fire. This trend holds over a considerable sample and shows consistency specifically in head-to-head fixtures. It therefore makes sense to look at New York City Team Total Corners - Over 3.5 at 1.68*.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Chicago Fire have seen both teams score in 10 of their last 11 home matches, which points to a high likelihood of goals at both ends on their own ground. This season, Chicago Fire are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per home match, while New York City are averaging 1.15 scored and 1.15 conceded away from home. The hosts' recent home statistics support the both teams to score trend. On that basis, we're backing Both Teams to Score - Yes at 1.50*.
Reliable Bet
In 25 of their last 26 matches, Chicago Fire have seen total goals go over 1.5, pointing to a high-scoring pattern in their games. Both teams' season statistics support this scenario as well, with both sides regularly scoring and conceding more than one goal per match. We're backing Total Goals - Over 1.5 at odds of 1.20*.
Correct Score Prediction
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm identifies three most likely scorelines: 1-1 (10.79%), 2-1 (9.62%), 1-0 (8.89%). Of these, 1-1 has the highest probability, though the gap between the options is fairly small. This reflects the overall balance and moderate scoring between the two sides in head-to-head meetings.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Given the trend of low scoring from New York City in the second half of the season, it is hard to expect a sudden attacking breakthrough against Chicago Fire, a side that makes defensive errors fairly regularly but plays pragmatically enough at home towards the end of the season without any real pressure from the standings. The visitors' statistics point to a systemic struggle to create chances: under 1.5 goals in almost all of their recent league matches regardless of the opponent's level or the motivation to hold onto a place in the MLS Eastern Conference top eight. The main prediction is built around exactly that limitation in New York City's attacking output, even accounting for how much each round matters to them right now.
The bet is New York City Team Total - Under 1.5 Goals.
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Betting Tips: Chicago Fire - New-York City
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