New-York City vs Chicago Fire Prediction 25 July 2026
🔊 Going into this one, the two sides are pulling in different directions when it comes to what's at stake. New York City are in the playoff spots and want to stay there. Chicago Fire are sitting near the top of the table but don't seem particularly driven to push for first place. Defensively, NYCFC have been fairly solid through this stretch of the season, while Chicago have looked sharper in attack - their scoring numbers back that up.
Head-to-Head
The last official match between these two sides took place on 14 September 2025 and ended 1-3. Here's the comparative stats from that game (Chicago Fire were the home side):
- possession: 51% vs 49%;
- corners: 2 vs 4;
- fouls: 7 vs 16;
- yellow cards: 0 vs 1;
- shots on target: 3 vs 5.
📊 Statistical preview from official meetings between New York City and Chicago Fire:
- 25 matches played;
- home wins - 14, away wins - 3, draws - 8;
- goals - 43 vs 25;
- average first-half total - 1.52, second-half - 1.2;
- average match total - 2.72.
Head-to-head statistics New-York City - Chicago Fire
New-York City Team Overview
The team's last official match was played on in MLS (Columbus Crew at home, New York City as visitors). The match ended 1-2.
Match stats (New York City vs Columbus Crew):
- possession: 41% vs 59%;
- corners: 0 vs 3;
- fouls: 11 vs 7;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 3;
- shots on target: 5 vs 4.
New York City come into this one in decent enough shape - two wins, a draw and two defeats from their last five. The return from the break got them three points straight away. Over ten games, it's been pretty even: four wins, four losses. The numbers across that stretch don't point strongly in either direction - 1.5 goals scored per game, 1.3 conceded. The season averages tell a similar story: 1.69 scored, 1.38 against. No dramatic swings in either end. They're sitting in the playoff spots and have reason to protect that, though the stage of the season gives them room to pick their approach without any real urgency.
Match Results: New-York City
Chicago Fire Team Overview
Their last official match was played in MLS (Inter Miami at home, Chicago Fire away). The final score was 3-2.
Match stats (Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami):
- Possession: 47% vs 53%;
- Corners: 4 vs 8;
- Fouls: 16 vs 8;
- Yellow cards: 1 vs 1;
- Shots on target: 4 vs 7.
Chicago Fire have had a noticeably attack-minded season. Three wins and two defeats in their last five, and they gave Inter Miami a real game in their first match back after a long break. Over ten matches, they're averaging 2.3 goals per game - but the defence leaks. 1.7 conceded per match. Season-wide numbers back up the attacking intent - over 1.5 goals per game on average - though the backline isn't solid enough to push for the top. Their league position leaves them with room to manoeuvre, and not much pressure to do anything with it.
Match Results: Chicago Fire
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of encounters - 25;
- home team wins - 14, away team wins - 3, draws - 8.
Statistics: New-York City vs Chicago Fire
- matches played in the tournament: 16 vs 15;
- wins: 6 vs 8;
- win percentage: 38% vs 53%;
- losses: 6 vs 5;
- draws: 4 vs 2.
Last 10 matches:
- wins: 4 vs 5;
- losses: 4 vs 4;
- draws: 2 vs 1.
- Chicago Fire won with a +1.5 handicap in 16 of last 17 games.
- Chicago Fire won with a +1.5 handicap in 14 of last 15 games (MLS).
- Chicago Fire won with a +1.5 handicap in last 12 away games.
- Chicago Fire won with a +1.5 handicap in last 11 away games (MLS).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H
- today's home team scores on average - 1.72, the guests - 1;
- average Over/Under goals in H2H matches - 2.72;
- both teams scored: overall - 14; at the home team's field - 6.
Statistics: New-York City vs Chicago Fire
- average total in the tournament: 3.06 vs 3.2;
- average total goals scored: 1.69 vs 1.93;
- average total in the 1st half: 0.88 vs 0.8;
- average total in the 2nd half: 0.81 vs 1.13;
- New-York City: average total at home in the tournament - 2.38;
- Chicago Fire: average total away in the tournament - 1.86;
- last 10 matches (average total): 1.5 (home - 2.33) vs 2.3 (away - 2.4).
- Chicago Fire have scored under 1.5 goals in 11 of last 12 away games against New-York City (MLS).
Prediction on corners
New-York City: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 3.44; at home field - 4.38;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 3.5; at home field - 3.67.
Chicago Fire: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 4.53, away - 3.71;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 4.5; away - 3.6.
- New-York City have taken over 4.5 corners in last 6 home games against Chicago Fire (MLS).
Prediction on BTTS
H2H:
- number of encounters - 25;
- both teams scored all-time - 14 times;
- on the home team’s field - 6 times.
Statistics: New-York City vs Chicago Fire
- number of matches played in the tournament: 16 vs 15;
- number of matches in the season where both teams scored (BTTS): 10 vs 9;
- number of BTTS matches for New-York City at home - 5 (63%);
- number of BTTS matches for Chicago Fire away - 5 (71%).
Last 10 matches:
- number of BTTS matches: 5 vs 8;
- BTTS matches for New-York City at home - 1 (33%);
- BTTS matches for Chicago Fire away - 4 (80%).
- Chicago Fire have scored and conceded in 6 of last 7 games.
Correct score prediction
Statistics of frequent results (current season):
- most common score in the tournament: 1:1 (21/238, 8.8%);
- New-York City at home most often finish matches: 0:2 , 1:1 , 1:2 , 2:3 , 3:0 , 3:1 , 4:4 , 5:0 (1/8, 12.5%);
- Chicago Fire away most often play: 0:0 , 0:2 , 1:2 , 1:3 , 2:1 , 3:2 , 3:3 (1/7, 14.3%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1:1 - 10.19% (odds 7)
2:1 - 8.25% (odds 9.5)
2:2 - 7.18% (odds 12)
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Recent form highlights a clear difference in how these two sides approach attack and defence. New York City sit within a consistent scoring range, keeping the balance between goals scored and conceded just above one per game. They've also been reliable at keeping things tight - seven straight matches with under 3.5 goals. Chicago Fire are noticeably sharper going forward, but their defensive issues may force them to be more cautious here. The main trend points to a low-scoring game, specifically in New York City matches - the run is too consistent to ignore. Prediction: total goals under 3.5.
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Betting Tips: New-York City - Chicago Fire
in 10 of last 11 home games against Chicago Fire (MLS).
in 6 of last 7 away games.in 16 of last 17 games against Chicago Fire (MLS).in last 13 home games against Chicago Fire (MLS).in 11 of last 12 away games against New-York City (MLS).
Comparison of Teams Stats
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