Augsburg vs Bayern Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 10 October 2026
🔊 Augsburg host Bayern as one of the biggest surprises of the opening phase of the Bundesliga season: after four matchdays, the hosts have seven points and 11 goals scored. The German champions have ten points and an impressive goal difference of 14:2, though their two dropped points came in an away match. Augsburg are particularly dangerous at home and under their current manager have lost just one of their last 14 Bundesliga matches on their own ground. This is not, therefore, a trip where Bayern should treat victory as a formality.
🔁 We will update this prediction as new information about the teams becomes available. Check back just before kick-off to make sure you don't miss any important changes.
Bayern have historically dominated
📊 Across 34 official meetings, Bayern have won 26 times, Augsburg six, with two draws. The average total is 3.44 goals, and both teams have scored together in 56% of those matches. Recent head-to-head fixtures have also tended to produce plenty of chances: in August 2025 Augsburg lost at home 2-3, but in January 2026 they got their revenge at the Allianz Arena, winning 2-1. Those two meetings showed that the Fuggerei are capable of causing the champions serious problems even when Munich enjoy a clear territorial advantage.
Head-to-head statistics Augsburg - Bayern

Augsburg are already attacking with the intensity of the league’s top sides
Augsburg have started the season far more impressively than might have been expected: 11 goals in four matchdays is a new club record for that stage of the season. The win over Schalke, and particularly the away victory at Eintracht, showed that the team are capable of creating chances not only from set pieces or isolated moments, but also through quick combinations. On average, Augsburg have just 41% possession, but they compensate for that actively through intensity: 686 sprints and 2,671 high-intensity running actions across the four matchdays.
The home factor is particularly interesting. Since Manuel Baum's return, Augsburg have lost just one of their 14 Bundesliga matches at their own ground - a 2-5 defeat to Stuttgart in March was the only exception. That is a relevant detail ahead of this fixture against Bayern: the hosts are not obliged to surrender the initiative entirely and are capable of sustaining a high tempo even against a side that is considerably superior to them in squad quality.
Match Results: Augsburg

Bayern need to step up the tempo
Bayern sit second after four matchdays with 10 points and the best goal difference in the league - 14:2. Vincent Kompany's side average 64% possession, complete 89.9% of their passes and have already registered 87 shots. However, only two of their 14 goals have come in away matches, which illustrates the gap between their home and away efficiency at the start of the season.
The champions' main problem is not creating chances but breaking down a compact defence quickly on the road. Away from home, Bayern drew 0-0 with Schalke and only narrowly beat Elversberg 2-1. Augsburg are a considerably more dangerous proposition in that regard: they have already scored 11 goals and will not sit in a deep block for all 90 minutes. If the hosts push higher up the pitch, Bayern will get exactly the space that Michael Olise and Luis Díaz need.
Olise deserves particular attention. The Frenchman has scored four times in four matchdays, has had 18 shots - more than any other player in the league - and has hit the woodwork twice. In his last Bundesliga match he scored a hat-trick against Union, giving him five goal contributions in total. Augsburg's left-sided defenders face an extremely difficult task as a result.
Match Results: Bayern Munich
Latest news
Augsburg
❌ Augsburg will be without several players for this match. Tim Breithaupt, Steve Mounie, Faik Sakar, Sima Suso and defender Noahkai Banks are all unavailable. Banks suffered a knee ligament injury while on duty with the Germany U21. In attack, the main hopes rest on Michael Gregoritsch, Fabian Rieder, Rodrigo Ribeiro and Alexis Claude-Maurice.
Bayern Munich
❌ Bayern's only absentee is Jamal Musiala, who has a hamstring muscle tear. All other key players are available.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Augsburg predicted starting XI: Dahmen - Matsima, Gouweleeuw, Brackelmann - Wolf, Massengo, Rieder, Behrens - Fellhauer, Claude-Maurice - Gregoritsch.
📋 Bayern predicted starting XI: Neuer - Laimer, Upamecano, Tah, Davies - Kimmich, Pavlović - Olise, Saibari, Díaz - Kane.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
The statistics here don't really support a high total. Augsburg have picked up only five yellow cards across four matchdays and committed 32 fouls. Bayern have just four bookings and 42 fouls. That said, the nature of the match could push the foul count up - Augsburg will likely have to stop Bayern's quick attacks through Olise and Dias, while Bayern will need to deal with the hosts' counter-attacks. So the cautious call is a modest total rather than a bet on lots of cards. Prediction: Total Yellow Cards - Under 4.5.
⚽ Goal Prediction
Bayern's 14 goals in four matchdays is the best return in the Bundesliga. They were particularly impressive last time out, putting seven past Union. However, Augsburg have conceded just six goals and are considerably more solid at home, so a repeat of that kind of scoreline seems unlikely. The previous three head-to-head meetings support a both-teams-to-score outcome. More broadly, recent matches at this ground have often been open affairs in which Augsburg have had chances to get on the scoresheet against stronger opposition. Bet: Both Teams to Score - Yes. Odds - 1.46*.
🚩 Corner Prediction
Bayern clearly outclass Augsburg in terms of possession and the quality of their positional play. However, in the most recent meeting at the WWK Arena, the Munich side were actually beaten on corners - 5-7 despite having 57% possession. There will undoubtedly be long spells of Bayern pressure around the Augsburg box, particularly if Augsburg score first and drop deeper. That said, I prefer to go with a combined market involving both clubs - Total Corners - Over 9.5 at 1.57*.
😱 Risky Bet
An interesting option for those willing to back a specific first-half scenario: Exact Number of Goals in the 1st Half - 2 at odds of 3.40*. In the last four head-to-head matches at the WWK Arena, exactly two goals were scored before the break every time: Bayern went in at half-time 2-0 up on two occasions, and in the other two matches the teams shared the goals at 1-1.
A repeat of one of those scenarios looks quite realistic. Augsburg are competitive enough at home that a quick collapse under Bayern's pressure seems unlikely, but expecting two home goals before the break is overly optimistic. The more logical outcomes are 1-1 or 0-2 - in the first case Augsburg take advantage of a counter-attack opportunity, in the second Bayern take control early and convert their territorial dominance.
🎯 Reliable Bet
Bayern have won 6 of their opening 7 matches across all competitions, with their only dropped points in that period coming in a 0-0 draw with Schalke. Augsburg, meanwhile, have lost just one of their last 14 home Bundesliga matches, which is why a straightforward away win looks more reliable than a heavy handicap. The champions have considerably greater individual quality and have already scored 14 goals in four league rounds. Reliable bet: Bayern Munich to win - 1.20*.
🚀 Player Statistics Bet
Michael Olise is in excellent form right now: alongside his remarkable numbers in the Bundesliga, the Frenchman has been carrying his national side. Across four Nations League matches, the winger has recorded 6 points (4 goals, 2 assists). His tendency to cut in from the right flank into central areas is particularly dangerous, and his shooting is extraordinarily precise - almost like it's guided. With space available, Olise looks capable of continuing to get shots off and find the net regularly. Bet: Michael Olise to Score - 1.93*.
👀 If the match doesn't go to plan
If Augsburg score first, it shouldn't come as a surprise. What matters more is how the Munich side respond: if they maintain territorial dominance, a high attacking tempo and a large number of shots, their team total in live betting is worth considering. If Bayern equalise quickly, a logical follow-up would be a bet on Bayern Munich Team Total - Over 2.5 Goals.
*Odds are approximate and may vary between bookmakers.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Augsburg deserve respect for their home run and strong start to the season, so Bayern should not expect an easy ride. However, the Munich side are superior to their opponents in virtually every key area - possession, passing quality, shots and the individual quality of their attacking line. Even without Musiala, the variety up front remains intact: Olise, Díaz and Kane retain enough to unlock the hosts' defence. Final pick: Bayern win with handicap (-2). Predicted score: 1-4.