Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 9 October 2026
🔊 Borussia Dortmund go into matchday five as the only side in the Bundesliga to have won all four of their opening matches. Werder have made a decent start to the season: seven points and three matches without defeat have lifted Bremen into the top half of the table. The two sides are at different levels defensively, though - Dortmund have conceded just two goals, while Bremen have picked the ball out of their net eight times. The hosts look like favourites, but the head-to-head record and the visitors' current scoring form leave reason to expect goals at both ends.
🔁 We will update this prediction as new information about the teams becomes available. Check back just before kick-off so you don't miss any important changes.
Head-to-Head History
📊 Across the previous 41 head-to-head meetings, Borussia have won 23, Werder 10, with eight draws. The average number of goals per game in this fixture is 3.49, and both teams have scored in 61% of matches. The most recent meeting in Dortmund, in January 2026, ended in a 3-0 home win, while in the return fixture in May Borussia won 2-0. Dortmund have gone seven consecutive league matches against Bremen without defeat: five wins and two draws.
👀 That head-to-head advantage does not mean Dortmund have had things entirely their own way, though. Werder remain an uncomfortable opponent for them - as the August 2022 match showed, when Bremen were losing 0-2 going into the 89th minute, scored three times and took all three points.
Head-to-head statistics Dortmund - Werder Bremen
Dortmund have found their rhythm
Borussia have won all four of their league matches. Notably, three of those four wins came without conceding a goal. After the fourth round, Dortmund topped the table for the first time since May 2023.
The team are operating fairly pragmatically: average possession stands at 49%, yet Dortmund have already registered 57 shots on target this season and made 687 sprints. In their opening four league matches, Borussia have not scored more than three goals in any single game, but they have given opponents very little sustained pressure. Maximilian Beier has been in good form, contributing a goal involvement in three of the four rounds - one goal and two assists.
Match Results: Borussia Dortmund
Werder keep up the pace
After four matchdays, Werder Bremen have seven points and sit eighth. Their start has been inconsistent: a 1-4 defeat to Freiburg was followed by wins over RB Leipzig and Augsburg, with a draw against Cologne in between. Daniel Thioune's side have not lost in their last three league rounds, scoring seven goals in that run.
The defining feature of this Werder side is their high volume of work off the ball. Bremen cover an average of 121.5 km per match - more than any other team in the division except Bayern and Hoffenheim. Their defence, however, remains vulnerable: eight goals conceded in four matchdays works out at an average of two per game. In attack, the return of Niclas Füllkrug has added an extra edge - the striker has scored in four of his five competitive matches this season and has found the net in each of his last three Bundesliga appearances.
Match Results: Werder Bremen
Latest news
Borussia Dortmund
❌ Kovač has several injury concerns to contend with. Emre Can is out with a knee injury, while Giannis Konstantelias, Justin Lerma and Filippo Mané are also unavailable. Nico Schlotterbeck is recovering from an ankle injury and is not expected to feature either; Daniel Svensson is set to take his place in the predicted back three.
Werder Bremen
❌ Salim Musah has suffered a muscular injury and is out for several months, while Justin Njinmah and Jens Stage were injured earlier. Felix Agu and Keke Topp will also miss the match. Senne Lynen and Moussa Ndiaye remain doubts. There is also uncertainty over goalkeeper Karl Hein, who returned early from the Estonia squad due to muscular discomfort.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
In the first four rounds, Borussia have averaged around 2.5 yellow cards per match, while Werder have averaged 1.25. These are not among the higher figures in the league, so there is no strong reason to expect a large number of bookings here. Head-to-head meetings do not offer a clear signal towards a high total either, with the number of cards varying considerably in recent encounters between the sides. It makes more sense, then, to go by current disciplinary form rather than the nature of the fixture itself. Prediction: Total Yellow Cards - Under 4 at odds of 1.48*.
⚽ Goals Prediction
Borussia have scored nine goals in four rounds, while Werder have conceded eight. What makes those numbers particularly significant is the consistency behind them: Dortmund have registered 57 shots on target this season, while Bremen's defence has already been shipping an average of two goals per match. The visitors do have a counter-argument in Füllkrug, and Werder have scored seven goals in their last three league matches. So the possibility of Bremen scoring cannot be entirely ruled out. However, given the visitors' personnel losses and the hosts' perfect start, Dortmund's advantage looks fairly substantial. Prediction: Borussia Dortmund Team Total - Over 2 Goals. Odds - 1.55*.
🚩 Corner Kick Prediction
Across their first four league matches this season, Borussia are averaging 3.75 corners per game, while Werder average around 3.5. At Signal Iduna Park, though, Dortmund will look to dominate territory and regularly work the ball into wide areas for crosses. The head-to-head record also leans towards the hosts: in the last four meetings, Borussia have not lost the corner count against Werder. However, in five head-to-head matches, the Bees have never won more than six corners. Prediction: Borussia Dortmund Team Total Corners - Under 6.5. Odds - 1.82*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary between bookmakers.
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Dortmund go into this match in the best possible position: four wins, just two goals conceded and top of the table. Werder have looked considerably more convincing at the start of this season than they did last year, but their defence does not yet compare to the hosts' backline. That said, the return of Füllkrug makes a goal for the visitors quite plausible, so a completely shut-out match is not to be expected. Final selection: Borussia Dortmund to win with a handicap (-1). Predicted score - 3-1.
Will this prediction come true?
No comments
Betting Tips: Borussia Dortmund - Werder Bremen
in 6 of last 7 away games against Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga)..svg)
in 7 of last 8 games.in 6 of last 7 home games (Bundesliga).in 17 of last 19 home games against Werder Bremen (Bundesliga).in 14 of last 15 games against Werder Bremen (Bundesliga).in last 7 games against Werder Bremen.in 16 of last 18 home games (Bundesliga).in last 6 games (Bundesliga).in 15 of last 17 away games (Bundesliga).
Comparison of Teams Stats
Other predictions
