Mercury vs Connecticut Sun (W) Prediction 19 July 2026
🏀 The Phoenix Mercury host the Connecticut Sun in a WNBA clash on their home court. Both teams currently sit near the bottom of their respective conference standings, making every win crucial for improving their position. The hosts are enduring a tough losing streak, while their opponents, despite facing challenges earlier in the season, have shown signs of stabilizing their form in recent games. With the playoff race heating up, both sides are under pressure to play aggressively, every point could prove vital in their battle for a higher spot on the table.
Head-to-Head
📊Statistical analysis of previous official games between the teams Phoenix Mercury (W) and Connecticut Sun (W):
- played 47 matches;
- wins (including extra time): 19 for today's home team and 28 for the guests;
- the home team averages 80.96 points per match, the guests - 83.4;
- average total match points - 164.36.
The last confrontation took place on 18 July 2026 at the venue of Phoenix Mercury (W) and ended with a score of 83:96.
Head-to-head statistics Mercury - Connecticut Sun (W)
Phoenix Mercury (W) Team Overview
Phoenix are enduring a turbulent season and currently find themselves in a slump: five straight losses and just four wins in their last ten outings. Their most recent matchup, also against Connecticut, ended in defeat, further highlighting the team's ongoing struggles. Over the course of the season, Phoenix are averaging 84.2 points per game while conceding 87.2, and recent numbers paint an even bleaker picture defensively, with that figure rising to 89 points allowed in their latest games. Offensively, they remain reasonably productive by their standards, but persistent defensive frailties have led to frequent defeats, even when the team manages strong spells on the offensive end.
Match Results: Phoenix Mercury (W)
Connecticut Sun (W) Team Overview
Connecticut are showing a more balanced run of form, with three wins in their last five outings and an even split of five victories over their previous ten games. The team have found some momentum recently after enduring a lengthy slump earlier in the season. On average, they score 79.9 points per game while conceding 85.6 across the campaign, but their last ten matchups have seen a notable uptick in offensive output (84.1) and a relatively solid defensive effort (81.9). Just a few days ago, the Sun defeated their rivals 96-83 in a head-to-head clash, highlighting their ability to exploit defensive weaknesses. Given this, Connecticut’s underdog status in the bookmakers’ odds comes as something of a surprise.
Match Results: Connecticut Sun (W)
Prediction for the 1st quarter
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 47;
- First quarter wins at home for the hosts - 13; for the visitors on the road - 10;
- Average total points in the first quarter: 41.85;
- Today's home team averages 21.85, while the visitors average 20.
First Quarter Stats: Phoenix Mercury (W) (home) vs Connecticut Sun (W) (away)
- Tournament matches played: 13 vs 12;
- Number of wins: 5 (38.46%) vs 7 (58.33%);
- Number of losses: 6 (46.15%) vs 4 (33.33%);
- Number of draws: 2 (15.38%) vs 1 (8.33%).
- Average points scored: 23.54 vs 23.08;
- Average points conceded: 23.46 vs 22.92.
Last 10 Matches (Overall):
- Number of wins: 3 vs 7;
- Number of losses: 7 vs 3;
- Number of draws: 0 vs 0;
- Average first quarter total: 44.9 (scored - 21.4, conceded - 23.5) vs 39.4 (scored - 21, conceded - 18.4).
- Connecticut Sun (W) won the 1st quarter in last 5 away games (WNBA).
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of matchups - 47;
- number of wins for the home team - 19, for the away team - 28.
Statistics: Phoenix Mercury (W) vs Connecticut Sun (W)
- number of tournament matches played: 26 vs 25;
- number of wins: 10 (35.71%) vs 8 (29.63%);
- number of losses: 18 (64.29%) vs 19 (70.37%);
- number of wins at home for the home team: 4;
- number of away wins for the away team: 4.
Last 10 matches:
- number of wins: 4 vs 5;
- number of losses: 6 vs 5;
- number of home wins for the home team: 2;
- number of away wins for the away team: 2.
- Connecticut Sun (W) won with a +6.5 points handicap in 8 of last 9 games (WNBA).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H:
- average total points per match for the home team - 80.96, for the away team - 83.4;
- average total points in H2H matches - 164.36.
Statistics: Phoenix Mercury (W) vs Connecticut Sun (W)
- average total in the tournament: 171.46 vs 165.63;
- average total points scored: 84.25 vs 79.96;
- average total points conceded: 87.21 vs 85.67;
- average total points scored in the 1st half: 43 vs 40.89;
- average total points scored in the 2nd half: 41.11 vs 38.85;
- Phoenix Mercury (W): average total points scored at home in the tournament - 85.77;
- Connecticut Sun (W): average total points scored away in the tournament - 79.42;
- last 10 matches (average total points scored): 85.6 (home - 84.2) vs 84.1 (away - 93).
- Over 164.5 points scored in last 5 Connecticut Sun (W) away games (WNBA).
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Both teams thrive on a fast-paced style and consistently deliver high-scoring performances, Phoenix are known for giving up plenty of points, while Connecticut have been remarkably reliable offensively in all their recent road games. Recent trends back this up: the over 164.5 total has hit in five straight away games for the visitors. All signs point to an open contest, with plenty of possessions and ample opportunities for both sides to showcase their offensive strengths. The pick - over 164.5 total points.
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Betting Tips: Phoenix Mercury (W) - Connecticut Sun (W)
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