Mercury vs Connecticut Sun (W) Prediction 18 July 2026
🏀 In the WNBA, the Phoenix Mercury host the Connecticut Sun. Both teams currently sit near the bottom of their respective conference standings and have struggled to find consistency this season. For the hosts, this matchup offers a chance to snap their losing streak and regain some momentum in front of their home fans. Meanwhile, the visitors are looking to prove that their recent win in the league wasn’t just a fluke.
Head-to-Head
📊Statistical analysis of previous official games between the teams Phoenix Mercury (W) and Connecticut Sun (W):
- played 46 matches;
- wins (including extra time): 19 for today's home team and 27 for the guests;
- the home team averages 80.91 points per match, the guests - 83.13;
- average total match points - 164.04.
The last confrontation took place on 06 September 2025 at the venue of Connecticut Sun (W) and ended with a score of 87:84.
Head-to-head statistics Mercury - Connecticut Sun (W)
Phoenix Mercury (W) Team Overview
Phoenix’s recent form raises concerns: just one win in their last five outings, including a run of four straight defeats. Over their past ten games, they’ve managed only four victories while suffering six losses. Their latest setback came against Minnesota (100-104), a result that could add extra pressure ahead of their home clash with Connecticut.
The Mercury are averaging 84.3 points per game, but opponents are putting up nearly 87 against them on average - a clear sign of defensive issues. While Phoenix try to maintain a high tempo and offensive intensity on home court, their defensive frailties often undermine the efforts of their attack.
Match Results: Phoenix Mercury (W)
Connecticut Sun (W) Team Overview
Connecticut have also been inconsistent lately, recording four wins and six losses over their last ten games. The team did manage to snap a two-game skid with a victory in their most recent outing.
They’re averaging 79.3 points per game this season, a slightly lower mark, but their defense has only been marginally better than their opponents’, conceding around 85.8 points per contest. Still, recent performances have shown some improvement both offensively and under their own basket. With a clutch win over Portland just days ago, Connecticut might be poised to build some momentum moving forward.
Match Results: Connecticut Sun (W)
Prediction for the 1st quarter
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 46;
- First quarter wins at home for the hosts - 13; for the visitors on the road - 9;
- Average total points in the first quarter: 41.74;
- Today's home team averages 21.87, while the visitors average 19.87.
First Quarter Stats: Phoenix Mercury (W) (home) vs Connecticut Sun (W) (away)
- Tournament matches played: 12 vs 11;
- Number of wins: 5 (41.67%) vs 6 (54.55%);
- Number of losses: 5 (41.67%) vs 4 (36.36%);
- Number of draws: 2 (16.67%) vs 1 (9.09%).
- Average points scored: 23.75 vs 22.82;
- Average points conceded: 23.25 vs 23.09.
Last 10 Matches (Overall):
- Number of wins: 4 vs 6;
- Number of losses: 6 vs 4;
- Number of draws: 0 vs 0;
- Average first quarter total: 45.4 (scored - 22.1, conceded - 23.3) vs 40.6 (scored - 21.3, conceded - 19.3).
- Over 40.5 points in the 1st quarter in 8 of last 9 Phoenix Mercury (W) home games (WNBA).
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of matchups - 46;
- number of wins for the home team - 19, for the away team - 27.
Statistics: Phoenix Mercury (W) vs Connecticut Sun (W)
- number of tournament matches played: 25 vs 24;
- number of wins: 10 (37.04%) vs 7 (26.92%);
- number of losses: 17 (62.96%) vs 19 (73.08%);
- number of wins at home for the home team: 4;
- number of away wins for the away team: 3.
Last 10 matches:
- number of wins: 4 vs 4;
- number of losses: 6 vs 6;
- number of home wins for the home team: 2;
- number of away wins for the away team: 1.
- Connecticut Sun (W) won with a +6.5 points handicap in 7 of last 8 games (WNBA).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H:
- average total points per match for the home team - 80.91, for the away team - 83.13;
- average total points in H2H matches - 164.04.
Statistics: Phoenix Mercury (W) vs Connecticut Sun (W)
- average total in the tournament: 171.19 vs 165.12;
- average total points scored: 84.3 vs 79.35;
- average total points conceded: 86.89 vs 85.77;
- average total points scored in the 1st half: 43.22 vs 40.38;
- average total points scored in the 2nd half: 40.93 vs 38.73;
- Phoenix Mercury (W): average total points scored at home in the tournament - 86;
- Connecticut Sun (W): average total points scored away in the tournament - 77.91;
- last 10 matches (average total points scored): 84.9 (home - 82.8) vs 82 (away - 90).
⭐ Editor’s Prediction
The game is shaping up to be a tightly contested battle, with both sides closely matched in terms of offensive and defensive capabilities. Each team posts similar scoring averages over recent stretches and both have struggled to protect their paint, often allowing a high number of points inside. The prevailing trend highlights Connecticut’s consistency: they have covered a +6.5 spread in seven of their last eight outings. This points to a competitive matchup, with neither side holding a clear advantage - even with the hosts enjoying home court. The pick: Sun to win with a +7.5 handicap.
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Betting Tips: Phoenix Mercury (W) - Connecticut Sun (W)
in 15 of last 16 away games (WNBA).in 9 of last 10 away games (WNBA).in last 5 games (WNBA).in 7 of last 8 games (WNBA).in 7 of last 8 games (WNBA).
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