Choinski vs Van De Zandschulp Prediction 1 September 2026
🔊 US Open quarter-finalist Botic van de Zandschulp returns to New York to face Jan Choinski, who is still looking for his first main-draw win at this tournament. Van de Zandschulp brings the standout result of his career into this match, though Choinski's ranking of 75 was enough to earn the Briton direct entry into the main draw as well. The gap in pedigree is clear - how much it translates on court remains to be seen.
Head-to-Head
📊 The two players have met three times, with Van de Zandschulp leading the head-to-head 2-1. Their most recent encounter came on clay in Braunschweig in 2025, which he won 6-1, 6-0.
Head-to-head statistics Choinski - Van De Zandschulp
Jan Choinski Player Overview
On hard courts in 2026, Choinski has won 5 of 14 matches. He has held serve in 80% of his service games but broken his opponents in just 16% of theirs. His first serve keeps him competitive, but when he drops a service game, he struggles to break back quickly.
Choinski broke into the top 100 for the first time in June 2026 and arrived at the US Open ranked 75th, earning a place in the main draw. He has yet to win a main-draw match at the US Open, and a five-set format remains a significant challenge for him. His weak return game is a persistent limitation - once he falls behind, breaking back is rarely straightforward.
Match Results: Jan Choinski
Botic Van De Zandschulp Player Overview
Van de Zandschulp has won 12 of his 22 hard-court matches in 2026, holding serve in 83% of his service games and breaking in 21% of his opponents'. He holds the edge over Choinski both on serve and on return, and has built those numbers against considerably stronger opposition.
Heading into the US Open, Van de Zandschulp reached the quarter-finals in Winston-Salem, winning two matches before losing to Benjamin Bonzi 7-6, 6-4. In that match, Botic kept it competitive throughout, but both sets were decided by a narrow margin late on. Against Choinski, the key for the Dutchman will be to prevent his opponent from consistently winning short points off the first serve.
Match Results: Botic Van De Zandschulp
Key factors
- Van de Zandschulp has won 12 of 22 matches on hard courts in 2026; Choinski has won 5 of 14.
- Botic breaks in 21% of his opponents' service games; Jan manages just 16%.
- Choinski is ranked 75th and entered the main draw directly.
- In Winston-Salem, Botic won two matches with a combined games score of 24-3.
- The Dutchman leads their head-to-head 2-1.
Expected scenario
Choinski relies heavily on his first serve, but when it's working consistently, he can stay competitive for long stretches. On hard courts in 2026, he held 80% of his service games, and most of his defeats were decided by narrow margins in games. Van de Zandschulp generates break points more regularly, though he doesn't always convert pressure into one-sided wins.
The most likely scenario is one where Botic controls the majority of rallies, yet Choinski keeps a few sets tight and has a realistic chance of taking one. Four sets suits the Over, as long as there are no heavily lopsided results, while the favourite's handicap requires a considerably larger winning margin.
Match Result Prediction
Van de Zandschulp's hard-court record and his ability to create chances on return make him the clear favourite here. That said, Choinski's reliable first serve could keep individual sets competitive. Botic looks the more likely winner, but how long the match lasts feels harder to call than who wins it.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Choinski's hold percentage is nothing special for a player standing around 196 cm, but his first serve regularly keeps sets tight deep into the third. In 2026, the Briton has played 10 tie-breaks across 14 hard-court matches, and van de Zandschulp has also frequently been taken to close sets.
The Over doesn't require Choinski to win. It simply needs him to take a set or stay competitive across several of them. A quick 3-0 for Botic remains the main risk, but Choinski's actual results point far more towards a lengthy match than a comfortable margin for the favourite. Our pick is Total Games - Over 38.5.
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Betting Tips: Jan Choinski - Botic Van De Zandschulp
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