De Jong vs Passaro Prediction 1 September 2026
🔊 In the first round of the US Open, Jesper de Jong and Francesco Passaro will be looking to transfer their best qualities from clay to the fast courts of New York. Both players tend to build their game on patience, but here they'll need to make quicker decisions and hold serve more reliably. The match is not just a battle for a place in the second round - it's also a test of how well each of them adapts to a surface that doesn't suit them naturally.
Head-to-Head
📊 De Jong leads their head-to-head 2-0. In 2024 he beat Passaro in Cagliari, and at Roland Garros 2025 in the first round he came back from two sets down to win 3-6, 6-7, 6-4, 7-6, 6-1.
Head-to-head statistics De Jong - Passaro
Jesper De Jong Player Overview
In 2026, de Jong has won just 3 of 13 matches on hard courts. He has held serve in 71% of his service games and broken in 18% of his opponents' service games. Even accounting for a tougher schedule, those are poor numbers - he has won only 47% of points played overall.
Shortly before the US Open, Jesper beat Dane Sweeny convincingly, 7-5, 6-0. The second set stands out in particular: de Jong did not allow his opponent to hold a single service game. That said, his recent form has been inconsistent, so one result is not enough to build a case on. A stronger foundation is his overall experience and head-to-head record.
Match Results: Jesper De Jong
Francesco Passaro Player Overview
Passaro has won six of his eight hard-court matches in 2026, holding serve in 80% of his service games and breaking in 19% of his opponents'. His sample size is notably smaller, though at the US Open itself he came through three qualifying matches without dropping a set.
Going through qualifying gave Francesco three additional matches on the tournament courts, which helps with acclimatisation but also adds to his workload ahead of a potential five-setter. In tight sets Passaro has leaned heavily on tie-breaks: across his 2026 hard-court matches he has won 11 of 13, though projecting that rate forward carries obvious risk.
Match Results: Francesco Passaro
Key factors
- De Jong has won only 3 of his 13 hard-court matches in 2026.
- Passaro has won 6 of his 8 hard-court matches on the surface.
- The Italian came through US Open qualifying without dropping a set.
- Passaro has held 80% of his service games; De Jong, 71%.
- De Jong leads their head-to-head 2-0, but both matches were played on clay.
Expected scenario
Passaro will look to make his first serve count and limit de Jong's opportunities on return. The Italian had the stronger qualifying run, but the Dutchman has faced tougher opponents on hard courts and has already shown he can maintain focus in five-set matches.
For de Jong, the priority is to avoid letting Passaro rack up quick points off his first serve. If he can get into rallies regularly, his edge in longer matches and a favourable head-to-head record should come into play as the match progresses.
Total Games Prediction
Passaro's ability to hold serve and the competitive baseline suggest a potentially extended match. That said, the total is too sensitive to one poor set from either player. The match-winner market better accounts for De Jong's experience without requiring a call on the overall length of the match.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Passaro's hard-court record looks solid, though a good portion of it has come against weaker opposition. De Jong has faced a tougher schedule, won both previous meetings, and has already beaten the Italian from two sets down in a five-setter.
The qualifying run gave Passaro some useful court time, but it also means he arrives in the main draw with three extra matches in his legs. In what shapes up as a close contest, De Jong's experience and ability to adapt over the course of a long match give the Dutchman a slight edge. Our pick is Jesper de Jong to win.
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Betting Tips: Jesper De Jong - Francesco Passaro
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