Jodar vs Kokkinakis Prediction 1 September 2026
🔊 In 2024, Rafael Jodar won the junior US Open title, and in 2026 he returns to these courts to make his senior debut at the tournament. The Spaniard has had a remarkable rise through the rankings this season - he began the year outside the top 150 and arrives at this Major as world No. 13. His opponent Thanasi Kokkinakis has never reached those heights; his career-best ranking is No. 65. With nine years between them, this match-up has something of a generational edge to it - and that makes the central question all the more intriguing: will Kokkinakis's experience prove decisive, or will Jodar's youth and quality win out?
Head-to-Head
📊 The two players have never met before.
Rafael Jodar Player Overview
Rafael Jodar arrives at the US Open having won seven of his last ten matches, a run that reflects solid recent form. A product of the Spanish school, he had a decent summer hard-court swing, reaching the final of the Washington 500 and the semi-finals of the Montreal 1000. That said, his game is better suited to slower surfaces and doesn't change dramatically on hard courts. His serve hold rate of 73% reflects that, though at 191 cm he does pick up aces regularly. Where Jodar genuinely stands out is on return - it is one of the strongest parts of his game on tour, and in Montreal he posted a notably high 49% of points won on opponents' first serve.
Match Results: Rafael Jodar
Thanasi Kokkinakis Player Overview
Kokkinakis heads into this match having won four of his last ten, with a difficult summer on hard courts - just four matches played on the surface, three of which ended in defeat. His North American swing began with a Challenger in Bloomfield, where he reached the second round, before failing to qualify in Montreal and then losing in the opening round in Cincinnati. That said, his hold rate remains high at 82%, and he is averaging 14 aces per match, which helps him win points quickly and limit extended rallies - something he clearly prefers to avoid, using drop shots to draw opponents to the net rather than getting drawn into prolonged baseline exchanges.
Match Results: Thanasi Kokkinakis
Key factors
- In 6 of Kokkinakis's last 7 matches, the total games exceeded 33.5.
- Kokkinakis regularly plays long matches, even against higher-ranked opponents.
- A natural clay-court player, Rafael Jodar has performed well on hard courts this summer.
- Kokkinakis's powerful serve will come up against Jodar's high-quality return game.
Expected scenario
In this match, expect a classic clash of generations and styles, with the key battle being Kokkinakis's big serve against Jodar's exceptional return game. The Australian will look to seize control early, targeting short two-or-three-shot points off his powerful delivery, while the 19-year-old Spaniard will aim to drag Thanasi into extended, physical baseline exchanges - systematically targeting his weaker backhand.
Total Games Prediction
Kokkinakis regularly features in extended matches regardless of his opponent's level: most of his recent outings, despite the poor results, have been high-volume affairs. Take his six losses from the last ten matches: in four of them he took at least a set, and in the other two he retired through injury.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Jodar heads into the first round on the back of solid hard-court results this summer and an outstanding season overall, during which he has climbed from outside the top 150 to the fringes of the top ten. His best results have come on clay, though, which could work in the favour of an Australian who is very much at home on that surface.
That said, Jodar's superior fitness and composure should allow him to press the pace and take time away from his opponent, forcing the big Australian to cover a lot of ground - something that, over a best-of-five match, is likely to take its toll. While Thanasi is fresh, however, he is capable of making at least one set competitive, or even taking it. That scenario would suit a bet on Total Games - Over 31.5.
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Betting Tips: Rafael Jodar - Thanasi Kokkinakis
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