Fearnley vs Pavlovic Prediction 26 August 2026
🔊 Jacob Fearnley and Luca Pavlovic meet in the second round of US Open qualifying on outdoor hard courts. Both players arrive in decent form, and the numbers suggest a competitive match. The surface offers neither man a clear edge.
Head-to-Head
📊 Jacob Fearnley and Luca Nardi have no previous meetings on record.
Jacob Fearnley Player Overview
Jacob Fearnley arrives at this tournament having won six of his last ten matches, which reflects solid working form. In his most recent outing he beat Roberto Carballés Baena, and shortly before that he lost to Taro Daniel - both ATP-level opponents. He holds serve at 70% on average, a respectable figure at this level. He also converts break points at 40%, and has won 61% of his sets. In only two of those ten matches did he fail to take a set, which speaks to his ability to compete even against higher-ranked opponents.
Match Results: Jacob Fearnley
Luka Pavlovic Player Overview
Luka Pavlovich has the same record - six wins from his last ten matches - though his consistency is slightly lower, with four defeats across that same stretch. In his previous match he came through comfortably against Juan Pablo Varillas, before which he lost in the opening round of qualifying at the Cancún Challenger. On serve, Pavlovich holds at an average rate of 78% - a strong figure for a player ranked outside the top 200. His break-point conversion is a touch more modest at 32%, while his set-winning rate sits just above half at 52%. Four of his ten losses in that period came without him taking a set, though he has continued to pick up games even against higher-ranked opponents.
Match Results: Luka Pavlovic
Key factors
- Total Games - Over 21.5 has landed in nine consecutive matches for Jacob Fearnley.
- The average number of games per match is above 22 for both players.
- Both players have won six of their last ten matches, suggesting a comparable level.
- Luca Pavlovic frequently covers the handicap and consistently puts games on the board.
- The sets and games statistics point to a potentially extended match.
Expected scenario
Both players hold serve reliably and convert their chances, so a competitive match looks likely. The probability of a third set is moderate - a close contest fits better with the Over than with a quick finish. Neither player tends to fold without a fight, making a swift outcome unlikely.
Total Games Prediction
Pavlovic regularly features in extended matches, where winning a high number of games is required for victory - or even in defeat, tight sets keep the total above the line. That pattern makes it more likely this match will also go over.
⭐ Editor's Pick
The statistics on both sides point to solid form with no clear gap in class or current condition. Expect a high-game-count match - the hold rates on both sides support that kind of dynamic even without a tie-break or a deciding third set. Our pick is Total Games - Over 19.5.
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Betting Tips: Jacob Fearnley - Luka Pavlovic
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