Fearnley vs Carballes Baena Prediction 24 August 2026
🔊 Jacob Fearnley and Roberto Carballés Baena meet in the first round of US Open qualifying on hard courts. The match promises an interesting dynamic, with both players posting similar numbers in sets and games won. Neither player has a clear surface advantage, so current form is the key factor to watch.
Head-to-Head
📊 The only previous meeting between these two, played in April 2025, went in favour of Jacob Fearnley.
Head-to-head statistics Fearnley - Carballes Baena
Jacob Fearnley Player Overview
Jacob Fearnley arrives at qualifying having won 6 of his last 10 matches. In his three most recent outings, he beat Mackenzie McDonald and Alexis Galarneau before losing to Taro Daniel in the quarter-finals of a Challenger. His average of 22.6 games per match sits noticeably above the selected total line. He holds around 70% of his service games, which helps him stay competitive even against players at his level. His set-winning rate stands at 61%, and he converts 40% of his break points.
Match Results: Jacob Fearnley
Roberto Carballes Baena Player Overview
Carballés Baena is in less consistent form, with just 4 wins from his last 10 matches. Recent results include defeats to Marc-Andrea Hüsler and Olle Värnamo, as well as a Challenger-level win over Max Purcell. The Spaniard is hitting 68% of first serves in and holding serve in 74% of his service games - a solid level for a player of his ranking. He also rarely gets bagelled: only three of his last ten matches ended in a straight-sets defeat. His average match total sits just above 20 games, which supports the case for a longer contest.
Match Results: Roberto Carballes Baena
Key factors
- In 12 of Feirney's last 13 matches, the total games exceeded 20.5.
- Feirney averages 22.6 games per match, above the selected line.
- Both players tend to play long sets, which increases the likelihood of the total going over.
- The two players have similar records in sets and games won, suggesting a competitive match.
Expected scenario
Both players' recent trends and statistics suggest a competitive match with a close contest expected in most sets. The likelihood of a deciding third set is moderate; both players hold serve reliably and create pressure on return. That picture supports a bet on the over - a quick two-set finish looks unlikely.
Total Games Prediction
Feirney regularly features in long matches regardless of the opponent or the round - most of his games produce high game totals. That strengthens the case for the line being exceeded here, even without a third set.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Both players head into US Open qualifying with question marks, but their results suggest a tendency towards extended sets and neither holds a clear edge in form or on serve. A competitive match should push the total past the line, whether through long sets or a deciding third. Our pick is Total Games - Over 19.5.
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Betting Tips: Jacob Fearnley - Roberto Carballes Baena
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