Mensik vs Rodionov Prediction 3 September 2026
🔊 For Jakub Mensik, the second round of the US Open was an extension of a celebratory week: the Czech turned 21 during the tournament, while Jurij Rodionov reached this stage of the main draw in New York for the first time. The match will show whether the Austrian can build on a rare Grand Slam run against one of the strongest young players on the ATP Tour.
Head-to-Head
📊 Mensik and Rodionov will meet for the first time.
Jakub Mensik Player Overview
Mensik beat Shintaro Mochizuki 6-1, 6-4, 7-5. The Czech hit 18 aces, won 74% of first-serve points and converted 7 of 11 break points. His advantage did narrow during the match: after a dominant first set, his opponent pulled level at 5-5 in the third.
In 2026, Mensik has won 22 of 31 matches on hard courts. He has held serve in 84% of service games, won 78% of first-serve points and 48% of second-serve points, and broken in 21% of his opponents' service games. He has faced top players regularly this season and has beaten Jannik Sinner. Hard courts have accounted for the bulk of his results this season, with his edge coming not only from his serve but also from a reasonably productive return game.
Match Results: Jakub Mensik
Jurij Rodionov Player Overview
Rodionov came through against Giovanni Mpetshi-Perricard in surprisingly convincing fashion - 7-6, 6-0, 7-6. The Austrian won both tie-breaks, did not allow the Frenchman to convert any of his three break points, and won 38% of return points. That said, his opponent committed seven double faults and won only 39% of second-serve points, so repeating that kind of margin against Mensik will be harder.
In 2026, Rodionov has won 8 of 11 matches on outdoor hard courts before the main draw, though a significant portion of those results came at Challenger level. This season he has beaten Jordan Thompson and Shintaro Mochizuki, but also lost to Zachary Svajda, Ivan Gakhov, Chris Rodesch and Matteo Martino. The first round was a strong performance, but Mensik's serve is noticeably better and more consistent.
Match Results: Jurij Rodionov
Key factors
- Both players won their first-round matches in three sets.
- Mensik hit 18 aces and converted 7 of 11 break points.
- The Czech won 24 of 37 hard-court matches this season before the US Open.
- Rodionov is playing his fifth match at the tournament, including qualifying.
- The Austrian won both tie-breaks in the first round, though his opponent won only 39% of second-serve points.
Expected scenario
Mensik will look to draw a short return off his first serve and finish the rally with the next shot. Rodionov returned well against a big serve in the first round, so it matters for the Czech to keep his second serve accurate - that is where the Austrian can gain more of a foothold in sets.
On his own serve, Rodionov faces a considerably sterner test. Mensik created 11 break points across 3 sets and can regularly force his opponent into second-serve situations. If the Czech keeps getting those opportunities, the Austrian will have few ways to extend the match to a fourth or fifth set.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Rodionov had plenty of opportunities on his opponent's second serve in the first round, but he should get fewer of those against Mensik. The Czech has been noticeably more successful on hard courts this season and regularly holds his own against stronger opposition.
A straight win for the favourite offers little value on its own, and a large games handicap is too sensitive to one competitive set. The lower total more accurately reflects Mensik's overall advantage and the likelihood that the match does not go to a prolonged five-set battle.
Pick: Total Games - Under 33.5.
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Betting Tips: Jakub Mensik - Jurij Rodionov
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