Popyrin vs Tabilo Prediction 3 September 2026
🔊 The US Open has brought together Alexei Popyrin and Alejandro Tabilo at a moment when both are trying to re-establish themselves among the better hard-court players. The Australian reached the fourth round in New York two years ago, while the Chilean has never gone beyond the second round. For one, this match could represent a return to a familiar level at the tournament; for the other, it could be his best result at the US Open.
Head-to-Head
📊 Popyrin leads their head-to-head 1-0. In the second round of Roland Garros 2025, the Australian beat Tabilo in three sets - 7-5, 6-3, 6-4. Their upcoming match will be the first between them on hard court.
Alexei Popyrin Player Overview
Popyrin beat Grigor Dimitrov 3-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-4. After dropping the first set, the Australian won three consecutive sets and broke serve at least once in each of them. The win carries extra weight given his recent results: at Montreal and Cincinnati he lost to Thiago Tirante and Titouan Droguet, with only two matches at a Challenger in Quebec in between.
On hard courts this season, including the first round, Popyrin has won 7 of 24 matches. He held 82% of his service games, won 75% of first-serve points and 50% of second-serve points, with aces accounting for 15% of all his serves. The main problem was on return: he won just 32% of return points and broke serve in 12% of return games. As a result, even a strong serve has not been enough to produce a positive match record.
Match Results: Alexei Popyrin
Alejandro Tabilo Player Overview
Tabilo beat Yannick Hanfmann 6-3, 6-2, 6-7, 6-3. The Chilean was comfortable in the first two sets, failed to close out the third in the tie-break, but regained control immediately. Across four sets he avoided any prolonged dip and finished the match with a margin of eight games.
On hard courts this season Tabilo has won 25 of 41 matches. He has held 86% of his service games, won 74% of first-serve points and 52% of second-serve points, and broken in 18% of return games. He relies on aces less than Popyrin does, but is more consistent on second serve and creates more opportunities on return. His win-loss record on the surface is also considerably better.
Match Results: Alejandro Tabilo
Key factors
- Both players won their first-round matches in four sets.
- Popyrin served aces on 15% of his service points.
- Tabilo held serve in 86% of his service games on hard courts this season, compared with 82% for the Australian.
- Popyrin broke serve in 12% of return games; Tabilo in 18%.
- Tabilo's hard-court record is considerably better: 25 wins from 41 matches, against 7 from 24 for Popyrin.
Expected scenario
Both players hold serve comfortably for long stretches, so the decisive moments are likely to come in individual games on second serve. Tabilo created break points more frequently during the season, but Popyrin came through pressure in the first round after losing the opening set, dropping none of the next three.
Tabilo has been more consistent throughout the season and has an advantage on return, though Popyrin's serve makes it difficult to break away quickly. At the same time, the Australian's weaker return play helps Tabilo hold his own service games. Sets with few break-point opportunities and several close finishes are therefore a possibility.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
The season statistics make Tabilo a slight favourite, while also pointing to a match with a high proportion of held serves. The Chilean has held 86% of his service games, and Popyrin has served an ace on nearly one in every seven deliveries. With numbers like these, even individual sets without a break can add considerably to the overall length of the match.
A bet on the outright result requires a more precise read on whether Popyrin can sustain his first-round level. The total games line depends less on who wins and combines the most reliable traits of both players: the Australian's strong first serve, Tabilo's consistency on serve, and the likelihood of at least one extended set.
Pick: Total Games - Over 39.5.
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Betting Tips: Alexei Popyrin - Alejandro Tabilo
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