Sabalenka vs Keys Prediction 9 January 2026
🔊 Can Aryna Sabalenka get her revenge on Madison Keys for last year's defeat in the Australian Open final? This time, the draw has brought them together at a smaller event - the WTA 500 in Brisbane. Sabalenka has already avenged her loss to the American in last season's Indianapolis semifinal. Who will come out on top this time? Let's assess the odds for both athletes in our editorial's prediction.
Head-to-Head
📊 The tennis players share a rich history of encounters, having faced each other seven times throughout their careers. Aryna Sabalenka has emerged victorious five times, while Madison Keys has come out on top twice. Exactly half of their matches have gone to three sets.
Head-to-head statistics Sabalenka - Keys
Aryna Sabalenka Player Overview
Arina Sabalenka is in excellent form, having won four of her last five matches. Her only loss came against Nick Kyrgios in the Battle of the Sexes, so the exhibition results can be overlooked. As for the current WTA 500 event in Brisbane, Sabalenka has advanced through two rounds without dropping a set and with minimal game losses, conceding just seven games. On hard courts, Sabalenka is particularly aggressive with a 72% success rate on her serves. Additionally, she is strong from the baseline, and over the past year, she's significantly improved her break point defense, winning 42% of them.
Match Results: Aryna Sabalenka
Madison Keys Player Overview
Madison Keys' flawless streak is even more impressive than Sabalenka's, as it now stretches to four matches. The American also participated in exhibition tournaments during the off-season, but against female opponents, and she defeated the legendary Venus Williams. In Brisbane, Madison expended more energy reaching the quarterfinals, but her level of opposition was tougher than that faced by the Belarusian. For instance, in her most recent match, Keys faced Diana Shnaider, whom she only managed to defeat in three sets, each going to a tiebreak. Keys averages 3.8 aces per match with a low double fault rate of just 8%. Despite having a more modest first serve statistic compared to her upcoming opponent (63%), her percentage of service games won remains above average at 53%. Known for her powerful forehand and quick reactions on the baseline, Madison is capable of challenging any opponent regardless of their ranking.
Match Results: Madison Keys
⭐ Editorial Prediction
On paper, Aryna Sabalenka is the favorite, given her top ranking and excellent form on hard courts. Her aggressive play and powerful serves make the Belarusian a formidable opponent. However, Madison Keys has her own strengths: a powerful forehand, excellent baseline reactions, and the ability to push herself to the limit in long matches. Despite some issues with double faults, the American has shown impressive resilience in previous matches. Aryna will need to maintain focus and avoid unnecessary errors to prevent break-point opportunities, where Madison is particularly dangerous. Recalling last year's Grand Slam final in Australia, we anticipate that it won't be an easy ride for Sabalenka. It's worth noting that Keys hasn't lost by more than six games in 9 of her last 10 matches. With this in mind, our choice is clear. Our prediction: Keys handicap (+5.5).
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Betting Tips: Aryna Sabalenka - Madison Keys
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in last 7 matches against Madison Keys.Other predictions
