Vukic vs Sakamoto Prediction 30 August 2026
🔊 Aleksandar Vukic is making his fifth attempt to win a first-round match at the US Open. He has lost in the opening round of the main draw three years in a row, and on one earlier occasion failed to come through qualifying. His opponent, Rei Sakamoto, had no such trouble - the Japanese player came through qualifying at the first attempt and goes into this match as the favourite despite sitting below Vukic in the rankings. Whether he can justify that billing remains to be seen.
Head-to-Head
📊 The two players have met just once - a year ago on hard courts, where Vukic came out on top. Even so, his opponent, ranked 189th in the world at the time, pushed a top-100 player close, as the score suggests: 6-4, 7-6 in the Australian's favour.
Aleksandar Vukic Player Overview
The hard-court swing got off to a fine start for Aleksandar Vukic - he won the Granby Challenger title, then came through qualifying to reach the second round of the Washington 500. Since then, though, his results have tailed off, and he has been inconsistent across his last seven matches. Vukic holds serve in 79% of his service games, but trails his upcoming opponent in both games won (45%) and sets won (33%). His backhand has been a particular weakness: opponents target his left side regularly, drawing frequent errors from the Australian.
Match Results: Aleksandar Vukic
Rei Sakamoto Player Overview
Sakamoto has been in decent form of late, winning seven of his last ten matches. That said, his results don't compare to Vukic's, and his pre-US Open schedule was limited to lower-tier events. He did come through qualifying comfortably, dropping just one set across three matches. One notable trend: he has won the first set in six of his last ten matches. His hold percentage stands at 80%, and his overall games and sets won rates - 53% and 63% respectively - are both meaningfully higher than his opponent's.
Match Results: Rei Sakamoto
Key factors
- Aleksandar Vukic has had the stronger hard-court stretch recently, picking up a Challenger title.
- Rei Sakamoto has won 7 of his last 10 matches and is in good form.
- Sakamoto tends to start matches strongly.
- Their only hard-court meeting, a year ago, went to Vukic.
Expected scenario
Both players have powerful serves and, judging by their hold percentages, effective ones too - which is hardly surprising given their size (Sakamoto at 193 cm against 188 cm for his opponent). With those serving credentials, expect plenty of holds and few breaks. That said, if the Japanese player's serve loses its edge as the match progresses, the Australian will look to press him with heavy forehands from the baseline. The Asian player may respond by coming to the net more frequently.
⭐ Editor's Pick
The gap in recent results between these two is minimal, with one important caveat: the Japanese player hasn't competed on the main ATP Tour since Wimbledon qualifying. Vukic, by contrast, reached the round of 16 at the Washington 500 last month and came through qualifying at the Montreal 1000 in August. That makes the odds somewhat surprising - the bookmakers favour the Japanese player by nearly 1.5 times. We don't think that reflects the true picture, so our pick is to back the Australian at the inflated price: Vukic - Games Handicap +4.5.
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Betting Tips: Aleksandar Vukic - Rei Sakamoto
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