Khachanov vs Bonzi Prediction 5 September 2026
🔊 Reaching the third round of the US Open, Karen Khachanov completed a "seasonal grand slam" of sorts: in 2026 he has reached this stage at all four Grand Slam tournaments. Notably, for the first time in a while he is unseeded, which makes him a particularly dangerous underdog. That was evident in his most recent match, where Karen pulled off an upset against world No. 4 Felix Auger-Aliassime. Next up is Benjamin Bonzi, who has also caused a surprise of his own, beating top-30 player Ignacio Buse. It makes for an intriguing contest to see whose run carries more weight.
Head-to-Head
📊 Karen Khachanov leads the head-to-head 2-0. Their only hard-court meeting came in the second round of the 2022 Australian Open, which Khachanov won in straight sets.
Karen Khachanov Player Overview
Karen Khachanov arrived at the US Open on a four-match losing streak, having failed to win a single match during the summer hard-court swing. On the New York courts, however, the former semi-finalist found his form, beating Roman Andres Burruchaga to love in the first round (6-3, 6-0, 6-1), then causing an upset in the second by eliminating Felix Auger-Aliassime (6-7, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2). Khachanov is a classic hard-hitting baseliner. His 198 cm frame allows him to serve powerfully at around 220 km/h and hold 75% of his service games. Despite his size, though, he is highly mobile, at least from the baseline, where he pushes opponents into the corners with heavy topspin.
Match Results: Karen Khachanov
Benjamin Bonzi Player Overview
Benjamin Bonzi has had considerably more match time on hard courts this summer, putting together a solid run of results with a 9-5 record after Wimbledon. In the build-up to the US Open he reached the semi-finals of the ATP 250 in Winston-Salem, though before that he had been playing mainly Challengers. At the Major itself he came through two rounds with minimal set losses, beating Alex Molcan 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 and Ignacio Buse 6-2, 7-6, 6-0. Bonzi does not have the same physical presence as Khachanov, but even at 183 cm he manages to hold serve at a higher rate - 80%. That figure, however, owes less to power than to aggressive early returns and a varied game that includes frequent net approaches.
Match Results: Benjamin Bonzi
Key factors
- Karen Khachanov has won both previous meetings against Benjamin Bonzi.
- The two players have comparable hold rates, though Khachanov has the more powerful serve.
- Both tennis players pulled off upsets in the previous round of the US Open, but the level of opposition was much higher for the Russian.
Expected scenario
Karen Khachanov will look to seize control from the opening games, building his game around deep, heavy topspin and a high-octane first serve to push the Frenchman well behind the baseline. Benjamin Bonzi, for his part, will try to disrupt that power-based rhythm by taking the ball early on the rise, giving the Russian less time to set up his shots, and mixing in frequent, well-timed approaches to the net. The key difference between the two is that the Frenchman is not comfortable in extended rallies, which the match is likely to gravitate towards as it progresses. So even if Khachanov's early pressure doesn't pay off, he should be able to take control over the course of the match.
⭐ Editor's Pick
This match looks like a classic contest between Karen Khachanov's attacking power and Benjamin Bonzi's more tactical approach. Khachanov's form appears the more convincing of the two - back-to-back wins, one of them over arguably the tournament's leading favourite, combined with an advantage over the Frenchman across the key match metrics. Bonzi's win over Buse is not to be dismissed, but his opponent's clay-court specialism is also worth bearing in mind.
Turning to the match itself, Khachanov's edge in the odds is reinforced by his head-to-head record and his considerable experience at the US Open specifically, including a semi-final run in 2022. He seems close to the level he was producing at his peak. We think Khachanov to Win - Games Handicap -2.5 is the right call here.
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Betting Tips: Karen Khachanov - Benjamin Bonzi
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