Fritz vs Cerundolo Prediction 5 September 2026
🔊 In the previous round of the US Open, Taylor Fritz recorded his 200th hard-court win of the decade, becoming only the fourth player to reach that mark after Medvedev, Sinner and Rublev. Next up for him is a match against Francisco Cerundolo, who has reached the third round at the New York Major for the first time. There is added interest in the fact that the two players are level in their head-to-head record. It remains to be seen whether the Argentine will set a new personal best at this venue or whether the American will take another step towards defending the ranking points he earned by reaching the quarter-finals here last year.
Head-to-Head
📊 The head-to-head record is level at 1-1, though the two have never met on hard court before. Both previous matches were played on clay, and neither went the minimum distance in sets.
Taylor Fritz Player Overview
Taylor Fritz arrived at the US Open on the back of an impressive 8-2 record during the summer hard-court swing. During that stretch he claimed his first title of the season at the Washington 500, then reached the quarter-finals of the Cincinnati Masters 1000. On his way to the round of 16 at his home Major he dropped just nine games against fellow American Darwin Blanch (6-3, 6-2, 6-4), and dismantled Italy's Mattia Bellucci with a bagel and two breadsticks (6-0, 6-1, 6-1).
Fritz is consistently solid on serve, holding 83% of his service games and averaging 17.5 aces per match. Although Fritz is a classic baseliner, he also has defensive qualities - his two-handed backhand in particular stands out: he hits it flat, which allows him not only to defend but to counter-attack aggressively.
Match Results: Taylor Fritz
Francisco Cerundolo Player Overview
Unlike his upcoming opponent, Francisco Cerúndolo won just one match on the summer hard-court swing, losing three in a row going into the US Open. That patchy form had no apparent effect once the main draw began, however: he beat Filip Misolic 6-4, 6-3, 7-5 in the first round, then came through a five-set battle with Wimbledon quarter-finalist Jan-Lennard Struff in the second, 5-7, 7-5, 4-6, 6-2, 6-3.
Cerúndolo is primarily a clay-court player, but his game translates reasonably well to faster surfaces - he has two ATP grass-court titles, in Eastbourne and London. That said, his serve is a relative weakness: he holds just 65% of his service games, his set-winning rate is lower still at 64%, and his average ace count is nearly three times lower than Fritz's. Where Cerúndolo does have an edge is the drop shot, an area where the American is less effective.
Match Results: Francisco Cerundolo
Key factors
- In 6 of Taylor Fritz's last 7 matches, the total games were under 33.5.
- Fritz wins 67% of sets and holds 83% of his service games.
- Cerundolo holds just 65% of his service games.
- In the previous round, the Argentine came through an exhausting five-set match.
- The American has dropped just 11 games in total across the main draw so far.
Expected scenario
Taylor Fritz is expected to start the match in full control, using a powerful first serve and the benefit of relatively easy early rounds to take the initiative from the off. As the match progresses, however, Francisco Cerundolo may adapt to the American's pace and draw him into extended baseline rallies. Even so, physical endurance could be a deciding factor: having spent over four hours on court in his previous match, Cerundolo may struggle to sustain that level of intensity across all sets.
Total Games Prediction
Fritz's recent matches have rarely featured a high game count. He is consistent on serve and plays aggressively both when attacking and defending. Cerundolo might have matched him in the latter respect, but after a draining five-set match he is unlikely to stay close on the scoreboard for long.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Fritz holds the form advantage. He has shown greater consistency than Cerundolo on the summer hard-court swing, and the later rounds of the US Open are familiar territory for him. Cerundolo's most recent win should not be overstated: although Struff reached the Wimbledon quarter-finals, he is considered a veteran on tour at 36 years old. Francisco, who only turned 28 last month, should be getting past opponents of that age considerably more quickly. We doubt the South American can resist the pressure of the home favourite for long, especially after his previous five-set marathon. Given that potential scenario, the logical play is Total Games - Under 36.5.
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Betting Tips: Taylor Fritz - Francisco Cerundolo
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