Struff vs Cerundolo Prediction 3 September 2026
🔊 A year ago, Jan-Lennard Struff reached the fourth round at the US Open - the best result of his career - and now Francisco Cerundolo stands between the German and a repeat of that run. The Argentine is noticeably stronger on return, though Struff's serve could keep the score level for long stretches. The match will show whether the 36-year-old can go deep in New York again.
Head-to-Head
📊 The only previous meeting went to Cerundolo. In April 2025 on clay in Munich, the Argentine dropped just 2 games against Struff - 6-0, 6-2. This will be their first meeting on hard court.
Jan-Lennard Struff Player Overview
Struff came through comfortably against Camilo Ugo Carabelli - 6-4, 6-3, 6-3. He dropped no sets and found at least one break opportunity in each set. After two defeats in his last three matches on hard courts, the straightforward start matters: Struff kept the match from becoming a grind and conserved energy ahead of a tougher test.
Including the first round, Struff has won 8 of 19 matches on hard courts this season. He has held 80% of his service games, hit aces on 12% of service points, and won 74% of first-serve points. On return, however, he has won only 35% of points and broken in 17% of return games. His performance rating also places him noticeably below Cerundolo - the gap comes not from his serve but from how rarely he applies pressure on the opponent's serve.
Match Results: Jan-Lennard Struff
Francisco Cerundolo Player Overview
Cerundolo beat Filip Misolic 6-4, 6-3, 7-5. The Argentine also came through in three sets, though in the third he had to wait until the closing stages to build a decisive lead. The win ended a run of three consecutive losses on North American hard courts - to Arthur Fils, Alex Michelsen and Nuno Borges.
Including the first round, Cerundolo has won 9 of 16 matches on hard courts in 2026. He has held serve in 75% of service games, won 70% of first-serve points and 53% of second-serve points, and broken in 24% of return games. His edge over Struff is most pronounced on second serve and return. In rankings weighted by strength of results, the Argentine sits among the top 25 players, while the German is closer to the edge of the top 100.
Match Results: Francisco Cerundolo
Key factors
- Both players won their first-round matches in three sets.
- Struff held serve in 80% of his service games on hard courts this season; Cerundolo in 75%.
- The Argentine broke serve in 24% of return games, compared to 17% for the German.
- Cerundolo won 53% of second-serve return points; Struff won 51%.
- The performance rating gives the Argentine a notable advantage.
Expected scenario
Struff needs to maintain a high first-serve percentage, as it reduces the number of rallies in which Cerundolo can use his return advantage. The Argentine earns break points more often, but Struff's serve is reliable enough to prevent him from building a lead in every set.
On Cerundolo's serve, there may be more pressure, but the Argentine has more ways to recover from a difficult spell. He breaks more often and wins more points on his opponent's second serve, so he is not as dependent on any single element of his game as Struff is. Over the course of a best-of-five match, that gives Cerundolo a more consistent advantage.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Struff can stay competitive for long stretches thanks to his first serve, but Cerúndolo's advantage goes beyond a single statistic. The Argentine wins return points more often, is more effective when facing second serves, and is rated noticeably higher on results quality.
In a five-set format, a broader range of advantages carries more weight: Struff needs to serve close to perfectly throughout the match, while Cerúndolo can gain the upper hand on return games as well. For that reason, the pick is the Argentine without any additional margin requirement.
Pick: Francisco Cerúndolo to Win.
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Betting Tips: Jan-Lennard Struff - Francisco Cerundolo
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