Fritz vs Bellucci Prediction 3 September 2026
🔊 Taylor Fritz and Mattia Bellucci meet at the US Open in a rematch of their quarter-final at the Stuttgart grass-court tournament earlier this summer. Both players arrive in the second round in excellent physical condition. They came through the opening round without undue effort, and produced identical statistics in the serve department - a key metric on hard courts - hitting 14 aces each. That makes their second-round meeting at the American Major all the more interesting to watch.
Head-to-Head
📊 These two players have met once before, with Taylor Fritz taking the win. That match, played just under three months ago on the grass in Stuttgart, went to three sets, with the American eventually getting past the Italian 5-7, 7-5, 7-5.
Taylor Fritz Player Overview
Taylor Fritz arrives in good form - seven wins from his last ten matches, including a 500-level title in Washington and a quarter-final at the Cincinnati Masters in the build-up to the US Open. At his home Major, he came through the first round comfortably against fellow American Darwin Blanch (6-3, 6-2, 6-4). Fritz's primary weapon is his serve, which he holds in 85% of service games - an elite-level figure, some 4-5% above the tour average. Combined with a 69% first-serve percentage, it contributes to him winning 54% of all games. In rallies, Fritz stays almost exclusively on the baseline and takes the ball at the top of the bounce, which adds extra pace to his groundstrokes.
Match Results: Taylor Fritz
Mattia Bellucci Player Overview
Mattia Bellucci had an inconsistent summer on hard courts, failing to string together even two consecutive wins in the build-up to the US Open. That said, he made a strong start in the first round of the American Major, effectively dismantling Zsombor Piros and bagelling the Hungarian in the third set (6-4, 6-2, 6-0). Bellucci is an atypical product of Italian tennis, having spent most of his career on hard courts. Remarkably for a player standing 175 cm tall, he regularly hits winners and holds 81% of his service games - largely thanks to his left-handedness, which brought him 14 aces against Piros alone. In rallies, the Busto Arsizio native is highly mobile and makes frequent use of a varied technical repertoire that includes slice and drop shots.
Match Results: Mattia Bellucci
Key factors
- Mattia Bellucci had a very inconsistent summer hard-court stretch.
- Taylor Fritz regularly closes out matches without dropping a set.
- The American is almost 20 centimetres taller than the Italian.
Expected scenario
Fritz is expected to take control from the early games, with an advantage across all the main metrics. His powerful first serve and deep forehand should deny the mobile Bellucci time to construct points. Fritz will want to avoid extended rallies where the Italian can move him around the court. That said, Bellucci is unlikely to handle Fritz's heavy hitting consistently, so the favourite may build a comfortable lead on the scoreboard.
⭐ Editor's Pick
This match looks set to be a tight tactical contest, where Taylor Fritz will want to exploit his considerable physical advantages in size and power. Home crowd support and experience in five-set matches will naturally favour the American - including on the New York courts where his Italian opponent has never made it past the second round.
Despite Mattia Belluchi's impressive start to the tournament, an opponent of Fritz's calibre may well be a step too far. The Lombardy native had a very inconsistent North American hard-court swing, and his aggressive movement and net approaches may come to little against the home player's passing shots. It is worth noting that Belluchi would first need to get through Fritz's powerful serve, which will likely restrict his options considerably. Our prediction: Fritz to Win - Games Handicap -6.5.
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Betting Tips: Taylor Fritz - Mattia Bellucci
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