Berrettini vs Navone Prediction 2 September 2026
🔊 Matteo Berrettini and Mariano Navone reached the second round of the US Open by very different routes. The Italian, ranked 43rd, saw off Stan Wawrinka in three sets, using 32 games. The Argentine, ranked 49th, produced the biggest upset of the first round by beating Novak Djokovic in five sets - 7-6, 5-7, 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 - in a match that lasted 50 games and nearly four hours.
Head-to-Head
📊 The head-to-head stands at 3-1 in Berrettini's favour, though the surface split matters more than the overall record. All three of the Italian's wins came on clay: Marrakech in 2024 (6-7, 6-3, 6-2), Monte-Carlo in 2025 (6-4, 6-4) and Cagliari in April 2026 (7-5, 6-3). Their only hard-court meeting was on 2 August this year in Toronto, where Navone won 6-3, 6-7, 6-3.
Head-to-head statistics Berrettini - Navone
Matteo Berrettini Player Overview
Berrettini's season has been fragmented by breaks, but the quality of his serve remains intact. On hard courts in 2026 he has four wins and four losses, with 69% of service points won, 12% aces and 77% of first-serve points won. In the first round he beat Wawrinka in three sets, winning two tie-breaks and closing out the match 6-0 in the third.
His one problem - and it matters for handicap purposes - is his return game. He wins just 32% of return points, and his break-point conversion on hard courts has dropped to 18% over recent matches. What partly offsets this is the margin of his wins. When Berrettini wins a main-draw hard-court match at a Grand Slam, he tends to win it comfortably: his last three such victories came with margins of 9, 8 and 10 games.
Match Results: Matteo Berrettini
Mariano Navone Player Overview
Beating Djokovic is the best result of the Argentine's career, and also the most demanding. He came back from 1-2 down in sets, playing five sets and 50 games. Before that, his hard-court season had been modest: 9 wins and 8 losses, and since the start of July 3 wins and 3 losses, without a single win over a top-30 player.
His game is structured in the opposite way to his opponent's. Navone's serve is almost toothless: 2% aces on the season and 1% over the last two months, though his first-serve percentage of 69% is the highest of the two players. He relies on his return and on extended rallies, winning 38% of return points on the season. He earns no free points, so every service game requires a full fight to hold.
Match Results: Mariano Navone
Key factors
- Navone has played 50 games and five sets; Berrettini has played 32 games across three sets.
- Berrettini wins 69% of points on serve; Navone wins 62%.
- Navone's ace rate this season is 2%; Berrettini's is 12%.
- The Italian's last three wins at this stage came by margins of 9, 8 and 10 games.
- In 4 of his last 5 main-draw matches on hard courts at Grand Slams, Navone lost by a margin of 5 or more games.
Expected scenario
The stylistic picture is clear. Berettini rarely drops serve, but he breaks back just as infrequently, so his matches tend to shift in one go rather than gradually - he applies pressure in a single set and then carries that momentum through. Navone, by contrast, has no real weapon on serve, and against Berettini's first serve he will have to earn every point from the baseline.
Add to that the difference in energy expended. The Argentine gave five sets and every last drop of emotional resource to beating Djokovic, and matches like that almost always come at a cost in the next round. Berettini came through the first round in three sets. With his serve, even a modest return game should produce two or three breaks across the match - enough for the games margin to exceed the handicap.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
The logic is straightforward: Berrettini rarely wins matches like this narrowly. His last three victories in Grand Slam main-draw matches on hard courts came by margins of 9, 8 and 10 games, because a serve that wins 69% of points gives him virtually free service games, and opponents tend to drop two of their own serve in a row sooner or later. Navone fits that pattern perfectly: a 2% ace rate means he will earn almost no free points on serve.
The argument against is the meeting in Toronto a month ago, where the Argentine won on hard court 6-3, 7-6, 6-3 - that much should be acknowledged plainly. But that was a best-of-three match, whereas this is best-of-five, and Navone has already spent five sets against Djokovic. Berrettini is fresher by comparison, and converting break-point chances against a 2% ace serve is easier than against almost anyone else in this draw.
Pick: Matteo Berrettini - Games Handicap -3.5.
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Betting Tips: Matteo Berrettini - Mariano Navone
in last 4 matches against Mariano Navone.
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