Merida Aguilar vs Rublev Prediction 2 September 2026
🔊 Daniel Merida Aguilar and Andrei Rublev had contrasting first rounds at the US Open: while the Russian came back from two sets down, the Spaniard won his match without dropping a set. This is notable given that Merida Aguilar is making his main-draw debut at a Major, whereas Rublev has extensive experience at the tournament - four quarter-finals, and a run to the third round in each of the previous two editions. We'll see whether Rublev can progress and justify his status as favourite in this match.
Head-to-Head
📊 Daniel Merida Aguilar and Andrey Rublev have never previously met at professional level.
Daniel Merida Player Overview
Daniel Merida Aguilar arrives at this round having won seven of his last ten matches, and reached the quarter-finals of the Montreal Masters in the build-up to the US Open. That hard-court experience served the clay-court specialist well in the first round of this Major, where he beat Marton Fucsovics 6-4, 6-2, 6-2. He lands his first serve at 71% and holds serve in 77% of his service games.
His sets-won and games-won percentages - 46% and 47% respectively - suggest he is often taken to tight finishes. His double-fault count is at a good level for a top-40 ATP player. Overall, Merida Aguilar's game is built on reliability both on serve and in the rallies that follow, where, unlike many Spaniards, he does not sit back and defend but plays with considerable aggression on the counter-attack.
Match Results: Daniel Merida
Andrey Rublev Player Overview
Andrey Rublev has shown good form across his last ten matches, winning six, a run that stretches back to the summer clay swing where he claimed the title in Båstad. His hard-court results ahead of the US Open have been less convincing, though, with a 1-2 record. In the first round of the Major he ground out a tough five-set win over lucky loser Otto Virtanen, 6-7, 6-7, 6-0, 6-2, 7-6.
Rublev stands out for his effectiveness on serve, holding 77% of his service games and winning an average of 66% of games overall. His set-winning percentage stands at 56, and he averages more than ten aces per match, which adds weight to every phase of play. He is a classic baseliner with a power-based game, looking to overwhelm opponents through sheer force, with his cannon of a forehand central to that approach. His defensive backhand has also improved of late.
Match Results: Andrey Rublev
Key factors
- In Andrey Rublev's last six best-of-five matches, the total games went over 35.5.
- Both players have won roughly half the games and sets in their recent matches, suggesting the contest could be closely fought.
- Both players have strong serve statistics, which tends to favour holds of serve.
Expected scenario
Rublev will try to impose a high tempo from the opening games, loading his opponent with his trademark forehand. However, the Russian came through a gruelling five-set match in the first round, and any fatigue from that could be exploited by Daniel Merida Aguilar, who has been in excellent form on hard courts. The Spaniard is likely to rely on extended baseline exchanges, a solid serve and a low error count, aiming to drag the match out and disrupt Rublev's rhythm.
Total Games Prediction
Andrey Rublev has seen the total go over the line in six matches in a row, reflecting the nature of his recent contests: most have gone at least to a fourth set or involved tight scoring in three-set formats. Combined with the grinding clay-court style typical of his Spanish opponent, this may produce another lengthy match for the Russian.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Both players arrive in good serving form and are capable of maintaining a high level of consistency across several sets. The outcome will depend largely on Rublev's ability to sustain accuracy through extended baseline exchanges, and on whether Merida Aguilar can weather the early aggression of the 23rd seed. The Spaniard will look to draw Rublev into a grinding game, but as the first round suggested - and as Andrey's clay-court results this summer have shown - he is capable of handling prolonged rallies. The pick is Total Games - Over 35.5.
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Betting Tips: Daniel Merida - Andrey Rublev
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