Liverpool vs Newcastle Prediction 31 January 2026
🔊 Liverpool wrapped up the group stage of the Champions League on a high note. However, there's no time to rest and celebrate as they need to climb out of their Premier League slump, having gone winless in their last five fixtures. In their 24th match, Arne Slot's side face Newcastle, another English representative in the Champions League. The support of Anfield makes the Reds favorites, but recently it hasn't often translated into victories, so there's plenty to discuss here. Let's dive into our prediction.
Head-to-Head
📊 Liverpool have secured 8 wins in their last 10 encounters against Newcastle. The Magpies have managed just one victory, and that came in the League Cup. In the Premier League, they haven't beaten the Reds since 2015. However, when it comes to scoring, Newcastle have shown some promise, finding the net in 5 of their last 6 visits to Anfield.
H2H Stats Matches and Previous Teams Results
Liverpool Team Overview
Regardless of how Liverpool perform-whether it's good or bad-they have been unable to secure a win in the Premier League for five consecutive rounds. Until recently, the Reds at least managed to avoid defeat, but that streak ended when they faced Bournemouth (2-3). In the past, open matches against less skilled opponents were bread and butter for the Scousers, but times have changed. The number of dangerous chances speaks volumes (1-6). Conceding a decisive goal from a throw-in has become something of a trademark for Arne Slot's side.
However, while Liverpool have slipped out of the top five in the Premier League, they finished third in the overall stage of the Champions League. The Merseysiders had a field day in the 8th round match against Qarabag (6-0), claiming their biggest victory under Arne Slot. The xG was an astonishing 5.24, and Virgil van Dijk made history as the first central defender in Champions League history to provide three assists in a single match.
Match Results: Liverpool
Newcastle United Team Overview
Newcastle kicked off the year with three consecutive home victories, cementing their reputation as a formidable side at St. James' Park. However, that aura is starting to wane, as the Magpies have suffered two defeats in their last three home matches, falling 0-2 to both Man City and Aston Villa. The loss against the Villans was particularly frustrating, as Eddie Howe's men were not outplayed in terms of chances created (1.8 to 1.16 in xG).
The Champions League group stage also didn't end well for the Magpies. They put in a solid away performance against PSG (1-1), but ultimately missed out on a top-eight finish. This means they'll need to expend valuable energy in the playoffs. Nevertheless, Newcastle are set to face the surprising Qarabag, who Liverpool recently dispatched without much trouble. Thus, advancing to the Round of 16 is a must for the Magpies.
Match Results: Newcastle United
Latest news
Liverpool
🎙 Arne Slot shared his thoughts after the match against Qarabag: "Reaching the top eight is what you aim for when the Champions League begins. It’s beneficial because you skip a round where you might face tough opponents. We are thrilled to advance directly to the Round of 16, especially since just two years ago we were playing in the Europa League and were knocked out in the quarter-finals by Atalanta. So, for the second consecutive season, we find ourselves in the Round of 16. Last season, we had high ambitions, and this season we're aiming for even more."
❌ One of Liverpool's main concerns at the moment is their injury crisis. Giovanni Leone, Alexander Isak, Stefan Bajcetic, Conor Bradley, and Joe Gomez are sidelined. Only the latter is close to returning. It's also unfortunate for Jeremie Frimpong, who picked up an injury against Qarabag just over a month after his comeback. It's not as serious as initially feared, but the Dutchman will miss a few weeks. On a positive note for the team, Ibrahima Konate will return to the field after being absent due to a family tragedy.
Newcastle United
🎙 “Eddie Howe expressed his dissatisfaction with the officiating during the game against PSG: “We had to contend not only with a formidable opponent but also with decisions that went against us. PSG are an outstanding team who don't need any help from anyone. I'm pleased with the result; it was a strong comeback for us. Regardless, we have tough matches ahead. We're still in the fight and aim to break into the top 16,” stated the Magpies' head coach.
❌ Emil Krafth, Tino Livramento, and Fabian Schär are familiar names on Newcastle's injury list. However, it’s unfortunate to see midfield leaders Joelinton and Bruno Guimarães also included. Joelinton will be out for several weeks, while the captain has a chance to play against Liverpool-his condition will be assessed closer to the match.
🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards
The average number of cautions handed out per game by Premier League referee Simon Hooper is 4.6. This statistic alone makes a pragmatic bet on over 2.5 yellow cards quite appealing. Furthermore, this wager has been successful in 7 of Hooper's last 8 officiated matches, as well as in 15 of Newcastle's last 16 games.
⚽️ Goal Prediction
While the referee doesn't significantly influence scoring, it's worth noting that in 6 of the last 7 matches officiated by Simon Hooper, the over 2.5 goals total has been surpassed. Additionally, 5 of the last 6 head-to-head encounters between Liverpool and Newcastle have also seen high-scoring outcomes. We don't anticipate a cautious game at Anfield.
🚩 Corner Prediction
Over 9.5 corners is a bet that requires little deliberation. The trends speak for themselves. This bet has been successful in 6 of Newcastle's last 7 Premier League matches, as well as in 8 of Liverpool's last 9 games across all competitions. The Magpies lead the league in corner kicks per game (6.43), and the Reds are not far behind, especially at home (5.82).
Editor's Prediction
Considering Liverpool's defensive struggles, a clean sheet from Alisson isn't on our radar, yet we believe conceding a goal won't prevent the hosts from securing a win. Arne Slot's side enjoys the advantage of Anfield's support and freshness, having played their Champions League fixture at home, whereas Newcastle traveled to Paris. Moreover, the match was significantly easier, and the record-breaking victory likely boosted the players' morale.
Summing up, we anticipate a 2-1 victory for the Reds. The most reasonable and safe bet in this scenario is Liverpool's individual total over 1.5 goals. The Scousers have surpassed this mark in their last seven head-to-head matches against Newcastle!
Betting Tips: Liverpool - Newcastle United
in 8 of last 9 games against Newcastle United (Premier League).in 7 of last 8 home games against Newcastle United (Premier League).in 7 of last 8 home games against Newcastle United (Premier League).in last 18 games against Newcastle United (Premier League).in 16 of last 18 home games (Premier League).in 14 of last 15 games.in 10 of last 11 games (Premier League).in last 7 home games.
in 18 of last 19 games against Newcastle United.in 17 of last 18 games against Newcastle United (Premier League).in 10 of last 11 away games.
Comparison of Teams Stats
Other predictions
