Gremio vs Chapecoense Prediction 30 August 2026
🔊 Grêmio go into this match having conceded in each of their last nine league games. Chapecoense, sitting in the relegation zone with the worst position in the league, have also struggled for results, winning just twice all season. The table adds extra edge to the fixture - the hosts are fighting to stay up and have only a slim gap above the danger zone, while the visitors have all but run out of hope of climbing off the bottom.
Head-to-Head
📊 Grêmio and Chapecoense have met 17 times in official fixtures. The hosts have won 8 of those meetings, the visitors 4, with 5 draws. In total, the teams have scored 28 and 20 goals respectively. On average, there are 1.47 goals per first half and 1.35 per second half. The average total goals per match is 2.82.
Head-to-head statistics Gremio - Chapecoense
Gremio Team Overview
Grêmio have been inconsistent of late, with three defeats and only two wins in their last five matches. In the ten matches before that, they won twice, lost five and drew three. Over that ten-match stretch, they averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Their defence remains the most vulnerable part of the team - nine consecutive matches with goals conceded underlines that problem regardless of the level of opposition. Their motivation is high given the table situation: Grêmio are close to the relegation zone, where every dropped point could make the task of staying up significantly harder.
Match Results: Gremio
Chapecoense Team Overview
Chapecoense are bottom of the table and showing one of the poorest forms in the league: just one win and six defeats in their last ten matches, with an average of 1.8 goals conceded per game. Over the last five rounds they have won once, drawn twice and lost twice - occasional flashes of activity against a generally passive set of results. Their motivation from a table perspective is almost non-existent: they sit firmly in last place with a significant gap to the safety zone.
Match Results: Chapecoense
Prediction for the 1st half
Grêmio have scored in the first half in 11 of their last 12 head-to-head meetings with Chapecoense. This suggests the hosts tend to start matches actively against this opponent. Their average of 1.64 goals scored per home game this season also supports the likelihood of a first-half goal. Our pick: Grêmio to Score in the 1st Half at 1.64*.
Total Goals Prediction
Grêmio have gone eight matches in a row where the Total Goals - Under 3.5 has landed, reflecting a consistent low-scoring trend. Grêmio's average goals scored per match this season is 1.04, and Chapecoense's is also 1.04, with both sides showing restrained attacking output. On top of that, Grêmio average 1 goal per home match across their last 10, while Chapecoense average 0.64 per away match over the same period. All of these figures support the Total Goals - Under 3.5 at 1.36*.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm's calculations, the most likely outcomes are: 1:0 (14.09%), 2:0 (11.28%) and 2:1 (10.45%). The most probable scoreline is a narrow Grêmio win by 1:0, though the options involving two home goals also carry high probabilities. The gap between the top three scenarios is fairly small, which suggests the algorithm rates them similarly.
*Odds are indicative and may vary depending on the bookmaker.
Safe Bet
Total Goals - Over 1.5 has landed in 6 of the last 7 head-to-head meetings between these two sides. Grêmio's average of 1.64 goals at home and Chapecoense's average of 0.64 goals away suggest at least two goals in this match, given how regularly the line has come in in their head-to-head encounters. Our pick: Total Goals - Over 1.5 at 1.27*.
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Both sides are far from their best, but it is Grêmio who are in more urgent need of points to ease the pressure of the relegation zone. Their defence has been leaking goals in nine consecutive home matches regardless of the opposition - this is directly linked to the trend in goals conceded at home and gives reason to expect at least one goal from Chapecoense even given their poor attacking form and lack of motivation in the table. The scenario revolves around Grêmio's defensive vulnerability regardless of the opponent, and the editorial selection is Chapecoense Team Total - Over 0.5.
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Betting Tips: Gremio - Chapecoense
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Comparison of Teams Stats
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