Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 28 October 2026

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Key points

    🔊 A classic English football cup tie returns to decide who advances to the next round. Liverpool host Chelsea at the legendary Anfield in the fourth round of the League Cup. The League Cup has always been known for its unpredictability: Premier League commitments push managers to experiment with their squads, turning these matches into contests between ambitious fringe players and motivated youngsters. Andoni Iraola's cup pragmatism against the Londoners' bright attacking rebuild - that combination promises a fierce contest with plenty at stake right up to the final whistle, with no margin for error in a knockout tie.

    🔁 Don't miss the key pre-match news: we'll be updating the page with information on line-ups, injuries and other developments that could affect the balance of the match.

    Cup history and hard-fought encounters

    📊 Matches between Liverpool and Chelsea in cup competitions in recent years have already become the stuff of legend. Fans remember the tight finals with extra time and lengthy penalty shootouts. In cup football, these two sides are used to playing with maximum defensive concentration, sacrificing open play for the final result.

    Head-to-head statistics Liverpool - Chelsea

    36%
    20 Wins
    32%
    18 Draws
    32%
    18 Wins
    Total games
    56
    Avg. total goals
    2.57
    Both teams scored
    61%
    1.34
    Average total
    1.23
    Last matches
    09.05.26
    EPL
    Liverpool
    Liverpool
    Chelsea
    Chelsea
    0.54
    0.46
    5
    2
    17
    17
    2
    4
    1
    1
    1
    1
    0
    0
    0.54
    0.46
    5
    2
    17
    17
    2
    4
    04.10.25
    EPL
    Chelsea
    Chelsea
    1
    Liverpool
    Liverpool
    1.24
    2.06
    7
    2
    9
    8
    0
    2
    2
    1
    1
    0
    1
    1
    1.24
    2.06
    7
    2
    9
    8
    0
    2
    04.05.25
    EPL
    Chelsea
    Chelsea
    Liverpool
    Liverpool
    3.52
    1.43
    3
    6
    10
    11
    2
    2
    3
    1
    1
    0
    2
    1
    3.52
    1.43
    3
    6
    10
    11
    2
    2
    20.10.24
    EPL
    Liverpool
    Liverpool
    Chelsea
    Chelsea
    -
    -
    1
    5
    15
    12
    4
    3
    2
    1
    1
    0
    1
    1
    -
    -
    1
    5
    15
    12
    4
    3
    25.02.24
    EFL Cup
    Chelsea
    Chelsea
    Liverpool
    Liverpool
    -
    -
    6
    5
    14
    18
    2
    5
    0
    1
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    1
    -
    -
    6
    5
    14
    18
    2
    5
    Empty
    There are no events
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    Liverpool: Iraola’s Pragmatic Approach in Cup Competitions

    Liverpool head into this cup tie in excellent domestic form, but a congested schedule across the Premier League and Champions League means the coaching staff will need to make targeted changes to the lineup. Andoni Iraola relies on physical pragmatism and organised pressing, which has kept his side's results at a consistently high level. For the fringe players in the squad, this match is an ideal opportunity to make a case for a regular starting place.

    Liverpool's main advantages are the Anfield atmosphere and the depth of their squad, which allows them to maintain their style of play even when four or five key players are rested. The Merseysiders will look to dominate midfield and shut down the Londoners' attacks early through their trademark pressing, though a lack of cohesion in a reshuffled defensive line could be a vulnerability.

    Match Results: Liverpool

    Last matches
    25.10.26
    EPL
    Liverpool
    Liverpool
    Brighton & Hove Albion
    Brighton & Hove Albion
    1.06
    1.66
    4
    2
    13
    9
    0
    2
    2
    0
    2
    0
    0
    0
    1.06
    1.66
    4
    2
    13
    9
    0
    2
    W
    20.10.26
    UEFA Champions League
    Liverpool
    Liverpool
    Villarreal
    Villarreal
    2.33
    1.39
    7
    2
    12
    10
    0
    2
    4
    3
    2
    2
    2
    1
    2.33
    1.39
    7
    2
    12
    10
    0
    2
    W
    17.10.26
    EPL
    Brentford
    Brentford
    2
    Liverpool
    Liverpool
    1.41
    1.6
    3
    9
    7
    13
    3
    3
    1
    2
    1
    0
    0
    2
    1.41
    1.6
    3
    9
    7
    13
    3
    3
    W
    14.10.26
    UEFA Champions League
    LASK
    LASK
    Liverpool
    Liverpool
    1.42
    2.94
    3
    11
    7
    4
    1
    0
    3
    6
    0
    3
    3
    3
    1.42
    2.94
    3
    11
    7
    4
    1
    0
    W
    11.10.26
    EPL
    Liverpool
    Liverpool
    1
    Manchester City
    Manchester City
    1.24
    1.28
    5
    6
    19
    14
    3
    2
    0
    3
    0
    0
    0
    3
    1.24
    1.28
    5
    6
    19
    14
    3
    2
    L
    Empty
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    Chelsea: Ambition and the Bravery of Youth

    Chelsea are in the middle of actively building a new playing identity this season. The League Cup represents one of their most realistic chances of winning a trophy, so their motivation will be extremely high. The London club often use cup matches to give game time to their large and exceptionally talented squad, and in those matches the players give everything.

    Their attack is particularly interesting - capable of bursting into life quickly and punishing opponents on the counter. However, the team's main problem remains a lack of composure defensively and a periodic loss of balance in the transition from attack to defence. At Anfield, the visitors will need to sit back and hope to take their chances on the break.

    Match Results: Chelsea

    Last matches
    24.10.26
    EPL
    Chelsea
    Chelsea
    1
    Tottenham Hotspur
    Tottenham Hotspur
    0.46
    0.84
    4
    6
    14
    14
    3
    3
    0
    2
    0
    0
    0
    2
    0.46
    0.84
    4
    6
    14
    14
    3
    3
    L
    17.10.26
    EPL
    Everton
    Everton
    Chelsea
    Chelsea
    0.51
    1.38
    5
    7
    8
    15
    3
    4
    0
    2
    0
    0
    0
    2
    0.51
    1.38
    5
    7
    8
    15
    3
    4
    W
    10.10.26
    EPL
    Chelsea
    Chelsea
    Bournemouth
    Bournemouth
    1.11
    1.03
    1
    7
    7
    15
    0
    4
    5
    1
    2
    0
    3
    1
    1.11
    1.03
    1
    7
    7
    15
    0
    4
    W
    18.09.26
    EPL
    Brentford
    Brentford
    Chelsea
    Chelsea
    2.13
    0.89
    4
    12
    10
    7
    2
    0
    3
    0
    0
    0
    3
    0
    2.13
    0.89
    4
    12
    10
    7
    2
    0
    L
    12.09.26
    EPL
    Chelsea
    Chelsea
    Hull City
    Hull City
    1.07
    1.35
    11
    4
    7
    12
    1
    5
    2
    2
    1
    2
    1
    0
    1.07
    1.35
    11
    4
    7
    12
    1
    5
    D
    Empty
    There are no events
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    Latest news

    Liverpool

    ❌ The main absentee for the Reds is Dominik Szoboszlai. Hugo Ekitike remains in a lengthy recovery process and will not feature in Saturday's match. Conor Bradley has been out since suffering a serious knee injury in January and will need considerably more time before he can push for a place in the squad. Jeremie Frimpong is unlikely to return before the upcoming international break after picking up a new muscle injury.

    ❓ Whether Víctor Muñoz and Florian Wirtz will be involved is unknown at the time of publication.

    Chelsea

    ❌ Emiliano Martínez has successfully undergone surgery following a broken jaw. Reece James has had an operation and is unlikely to return before the end of the year. Cole Palmer will miss the match through suspension.

    ❓ João Pedro may miss some time due to injury. Jamie Gittens is still a few weeks away from returning, and it is currently unknown whether he will be available for this match.

    Predicted Lineups

    📋 Liverpool predicted starting XI: Mamardashvili - Araújo, Jacquet, Gomez, Kerkez - Mac Allister, Nyoni - Barcola, Gakpo, Ngumoha - Koumas.

    📋 Chelsea predicted starting XI: Penders - Gusto, Fofana, Lacroix, Palestra - Barco, Lavia, Henderson - Rodgers, Welbeck, Estêvão.

    ⚽ Goals Prediction

    Despite both sides' historical tendency towards tight cup finals, squad rotation at this stage of the tournament will inevitably lead to positional errors at the back on both sides. Motivated fringe players will be eager to prove themselves in attack. We can expect a lively exchange of shots and chances. The prediction is Total Goals - Over 2.5, priced at 1.48*.

    🚩 Corners Prediction

    Liverpool, as the home side, will look to control the ball and make active use of the flanks through cutbacks and crosses, which typically leads to a high number of blocked deliveries. Chelsea will respond with quick forward runs from their attacking line, which has been used to playing on the front foot this season. The prediction is Total Corners - Over 9.5 at 1.68*.

    🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction

    The cup nature of the match and the traditionally fierce rivalry between Liverpool and Chelsea should ensure a high-intensity battle across every area of the pitch. Defenders on both sides, in reshuffled combinations, will frequently need to resort to tactical fouls to break up quick attacks. We're expecting a tight, physical game with plenty of minor infringements. Our prediction is Total Yellow Cards - Over 3.5.

    🚀 Player Stat Bet

    Bradley Barcola - Liverpool's French winger. In recent matches the forward has started to make a real impact on his team's results, beginning a productive run with a hat-trick in the Champions League against Austrian side LASK, then following it up with assists in Premier League matches against Brentford and Brighton. We're backing Barcola to register an assist or score a goal, priced at 2.07.

    😱 Risky Bet

    Here is an interesting option for those looking for a higher price. Goalscoring football has been Chelsea's trademark at the start of this season. Xabi Alonso has been instilling an open style of play in his squad. Liverpool, while less aggressive, can get drawn into a high-scoring game, and that has happened fairly often recently. It is quite possible that after both sides exchange goals, neither team will find a winner in normal time. The risky bet is Both Teams to Score - Yes + Draw, priced at 4.2*.

    🎯 Reliable Bet

    The quality of Liverpool's players and the Anfield factor carry real weight in cup ties. Even with rotation, the Merseysiders will do everything to avoid defeat in normal time. Chelsea tend to play open football, and Liverpool have every chance to take advantage of that. The reliable bet here is Liverpool not to lose, priced at 1.43*.

    👀 If the match doesn't go to script

    If Liverpool switch on their trademark suffocating press from the first minute and completely cut off Chelsea's routes out of defence, the Londoners could grow nervous and drop into a deep defensive shape, trying to hold on until a penalty shootout. In that scenario, the match would lose its cup-game openness and become as closed as possible. The alternative bet is Total Goals - Under 2.5, priced at 2.70*.

    *Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.

    ⭐️ Editorial Prediction

    Liverpool will look to take control at home, but Chelsea's bold attack will find a way through the hosts' defence. This looks like being a tight, hard-fought end-to-end match where the full 90 minutes could well produce goals. In the previous round of the competition, both sides were involved in high-scoring games - Liverpool beat Tottenham 3-1, while Chelsea came through a goal-fest against Leeds, winning 6-3. The main prediction is Total Goals - Over 3. Predicted score: 2-2.

    Total goals Over (3)
    Thunderpick
    Place a bet-139
    Published: 27/10/2026, 08:14
    Daniil Shilovich
    Daniil Shilovich
    Football expert
    96
    2
    80
    178 predictions
    Statistics for October 2026

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    Betting Tips: Liverpool - Chelsea

    Liverpool have drawn in the 2nd half:
    liverpool-fc-1chelsea-fcin 12 of last 14 games against Chelsea.
    liverpool-fc-1chelsea-fcin 6 of last 7 home games against Chelsea.
    2nd Half Draw
    +180
    Liverpool have drawn in the 1st half:
    liverpool-fc-1chelsea-fcin 6 of last 7 games against Chelsea (EFL Cup).
    1st Half Draw
    Bovada
    +155
    Liverpool have won:
    liverpool-fc-1in 6 of last 7 games.
    Liverpool to Win
    Bovada
    +150
    Liverpool have not lost:
    liverpool-fc-1chelsea-fcin 8 of last 9 home games against Chelsea.
    liverpool-fc-1in 11 of last 12 games.
    liverpool-fc-1in 9 of last 10 home games.
    Liverpool will not lose
    MyBookie
    -244
    View more facts

    Comparison of Teams Stats

    10 matches
    8 - Wins
    1 - Draw
    1 - Loss
    Wins - 6
    Draw - 1
    Losses - 3
    10 matches
    Scored - 22
    Conceded - 12
    +10
    +7
    25 - Scored
    18 - Conceded
    8
    Wins
    6
    1
    Draw
    1
    1
    Losses
    3
    Goal difference
    22
    Scored
    25
    12
    Conceded
    18
    3.4
    Average total per match
    4.3
    2.2
    Goals scored per match on average
    2.5
    1.2
    Goals conceded per match on average
    1.8
    5
    Both teams scored
    6
    41'
    Minutes / Goal scored
    36'
    View all stats