Gremio vs Vitoria Prediction 28 September 2025
🔊 In Porto Alegre, Grêmio host Vitória in the 25th round of Brazil's Serie A. After two unbeaten matches, the hosts aim to solidify their mid-table position, relying on their attacking leaders. Vitória, fighting to stay in the top division, are searching for points to escape the relegation zone. The match promises to be intense and tactically rich, with a focus on battling for every point and controlling the midfield.
Head-to-Head
The last official match between the teams took place on 27 April 2025 and ended in a 1-1 draw. Here's a comparative breakdown of the stats from that encounter (Vitória were the home side):
- possession: 55% vs 45%;
- corner kicks: 6 vs 2;
- fouls: 20 vs 11;
- yellow cards: 4 vs 1;
- shots on target: 3 vs 8.
📊 Statistical preview of the official encounters between Gremio and Vitoria:
- 21 matches played;
- home team wins - 10, away team wins - 4, draws - 7;
- goal count - 30 for Gremio, 15 for Vitoria;
- average goals in the first half - 0.9, in the second half - 1.24;
- average total goals per match - 2.14.
Head-to-head statistics Gremio - Vitoria
Gremio Team Overview
The team's last official match took place on in the Serie A tournament, with Grêmio hosting Botafogo. The game ended in a 1-1 draw.
Here's the match statistics (Grêmio vs Botafogo):
- possession percentage: 46% vs 54%;
- corner kicks: 7 vs 1;
- fouls: 7 vs 17;
- yellow cards: 1 vs 2;
- shots on target: 4 vs 4.
⚫ In a rescheduled match from the 16th round, Grêmio held Botafogo to a 1-1 draw on home turf. The team conceded early in the second half but managed to level the score in the 90th minute thanks to a precise penalty by Thiago Volpi. After 24 rounds, Grêmio sit in 11th place in Serie A with 29 points. The team consistently finds itself mid-table, but to push into the upper echelons and secure a spot in the Copa Sudamericana, they need to improve their home results. Grêmio's home form has been shaky: in 12 matches, they have secured only four wins, with five draws and three losses, maintaining a goal difference of 10:10.
Match Results: Gremio
Vitoria Team Overview
The visitors last played an official match on in the Serie A tournament (home team - Vitoria, away team - Fluminense). The match ended with a 0-1 scoreline.
Here are the match statistics (Vitoria vs Fluminense):
- possession percentage: 54% vs 46%;
- corner kicks: 10 vs 6;
- fouls: 17 vs 14;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 2;
- shots on target: 4 vs 4.
🔴 In their latest round, Vitoria suffered a home defeat to Fluminense (0-1). This marked their third loss in the last five matches, negatively impacting their league form. After 24 rounds, Vitoria sit in 17th place in Serie A, trailing 16th place Atletico Mineiro by three points. The away match statistics are particularly concerning: they remain one of only two teams in the league yet to secure an away victory-managing just 5 draws and 7 losses in 12 away games, with a goal difference of 5:22. This form severely complicates the club's prospects, and Vitoria urgently need to improve their results both at home and on the road to escape the relegation zone.
Match Results: Vitoria
Prediction for the 1st half
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 21;
- First-half wins for the home team - 4; for the away team - 3; draws - 3;
- Average first-half total: 0.9;
- Today's home team averages 0.67 goals, while the visitors average 0.24.
First-Half Statistics: Gremio (home) vs Vitoria (away)
- Matches played in the tournament: 12 vs 12;
- Wins: 3 (25%) vs 0 (0%);
- Losses: 2 (16.67%) vs 6 (50%);
- Draws: 7 (58.33%) vs 6 (50%);
- Average goals scored: 0.83 vs 0.83;
- Average goals conceded: 0.33 vs 0.75.
Last 10 Matches (overall):
- Wins: 1 vs 4;
- Losses: 3 vs 4;
- Draws: 6 vs 2;
- Average first-half total: 1.2 (scored - 0.5, conceded - 0.7) vs 1.2 (scored - 0.5, conceded - 0.7).
- Gremio have drawn the first half in 6 of their last 7 matches (Serie A).
Outcome Prediction
Head-to-Head Matches:
- total encounters - 21;
- home wins - 10, away wins - 4, draws - 7.
Statistics: Gremio vs Vitoria
- matches played in the tournament: 24 vs 24;
- wins: 7 vs 4;
- win percentage: 29% vs 17%;
- losses: 9 vs 10;
- draws: 8 vs 10.
Last 10 Matches:
- wins: 3 vs 2;
- losses: 4 vs 4;
- draws: 3 vs 4.
- Gremio are unbeaten in the last 10 head-to-head matches against Vitoria.
- Gremio have avoided defeat at home in 9 of the last 10 head-to-head encounters with Vitoria.
- Gremio are unbeaten in their last 8 Serie A head-to-head matches against Vitoria.
- Vitoria have failed to win in 16 of their last 17 away matches.
- Vitoria are winless in their last 12 away matches in Serie A.
- Vitoria have not won in 8 of their last 9 Serie A matches.
Total Goals Prediction
Head-to-Head Matches:
- today's home team averages - 1.43 goals, away team - 0.71;
- average total goals in head-to-head matches - 2.14;
- both teams scored: overall - 9 times; at home - 4 times.
Statistics: Gremio vs Vitoria
- average total in the tournament: 2.25 vs 2.25;
- average goals scored: 1 vs 0.79;
- average total in the first half: 0.54 vs 0.25;
- average total in the second half: 0.46 vs 0.54;
- Gremio: average home total in the tournament - 0.83;
- Vitoria: average away total in the tournament - 0.42;
- last 10 matches (average total): 1 (home - 0.6) vs 0.9 (away - 0.25).
- Total under 2.5 goals has occurred in 7 of Vitoria's last 8 away matches.
- Total under 2.5 goals has occurred in 6 of Vitoria's last 7 away matches in Serie A.
Corners Prediction
Gremio: Statistics
- season average total in the tournament - 3.83; at home - 3.83;
- last 10 matches: average total - 3.4; at home - 4.4.
Vitoria: Statistics
- season average total in the tournament - 4.67, away - 4.08;
- last 10 matches: average total - 4.1; away - 2.75.
- Gremio have had under 6.5 corners in 12 of their last 13 Serie A matches.
- Gremio have had under 6.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 matches.
Cards Prediction
Head-to-Head Matches
- average total yellow cards in head-to-head matches - 2.38 (1.19 for the home team and 1.19 for the away team);
- average total yellow cards at home - 3.1 (1.1 for the home team and 2 for the away team).
Gremio: Statistics
- season average total in the tournament - 2.79; at home - 2.75;
- last 10 matches: average total - 2.3; at home - 2.
Vitoria: Statistics
- season average total in the tournament - 2.71, away - 3.08;
- last 10 matches: average total - 2.7; away - 2.5.
- Total over 3.5 yellow cards has occurred in Vitoria's last 10 out of their last 11 Serie A matches.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Head-to-Head Matches:
- total encounters - 21;
- both teams scored overall - 9 times;
- at home - 4 times.
Statistics: Gremio vs Vitoria
- matches played in the tournament: 24 vs 24;
- matches with both teams scoring (BTTS) this season: Gremio -14 vs Vitoria -11;
- BTTS at home for Gremio - 6 (50%);
- BTTS away for Vitoria - 4 (33%).
Last 10 Matches:
- matches with BTTS: Gremio -5 vs Vitoria -4;
- BTTS at home for Gremio - 2 (40%);
- BTTS away for Vitoria -1 (25%).
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Our prediction: under 2.5 goals. The teams drew 1-1 in the first round, and head-to-head statistics reveal that this outcome has occurred in their last four meetings. We anticipate a cautious game with minimal risks, leading to a low-scoring match. Additionally, under 2.5 goals has been the result in 7 of Vitória's last 8 away games. A narrow 1-0 victory for Grêmio is possible.
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Betting Tips: Gremio - Vitoria
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