Penarol vs Cerro Largo Prediction 1 August 2026
⚡️ In the Uruguayan Primera, the top two sides in the intermediate tournament group go head to head. League leaders Peñarol host second-placed Cerro Largo, with just two points separating them. The stakes are clear: the hosts want to pull away at the top, while the visitors arrive with every intention of overtaking them.
Head-to-Head
The last official match between these two sides ended 2-3. Here's how the numbers looked in that game (Cerro Largo were the home side):
- possession: 35% vs 65%;
- corners: 1 vs 4;
- yellow cards: 1 vs 3.
📊 Head-to-head stats from official meetings between Peñarol and Cerro Largo:
- 18 matches played;
- home wins - 8, away wins - 3, draws - 7;
- goals - 26 vs 17;
- average first-half total - 1.11, second-half - 1.28;
- average match total - 2.39.
Head-to-head statistics Penarol - Cerro Largo
Penarol Montevideo Team Overview
Their last official match was in the Primera, with Peñarol at home against Boston River. Final score: 3-0.
Match stats (Peñarol vs Boston River):
- Possession: 53% vs 47%
- Corners: 4 vs 5
- Yellow cards: 2 vs 6
- Shots on target: 4 vs 1
Peñarol have had a strong tournament and sit top of Group A on 13 points - deservedly so. Last round they beat Boston River 3-0 with little fuss, finishing their chances well. The attack has been consistent, regularly pressing opposition defences. At home, though, they tend to lose focus and let teams score. In this one, the hosts will look to set the tempo early and take the sting out of their closest rival.
Match Results: Penarol Montevideo
Cerro Largo Team Overview
The visitors' most recent official match in the Primera tournament saw Cerro Largo travel to Central Español. The final score was 0-1.
Stats from that game (Cerro Largo vs Central Español):
- Possession: 41% vs 59%;
- Corners: 1 vs 5;
- Yellow cards: 2 vs 4;
- Shots on target: 5 vs 4.
Cerro Largo are having a strong season and sit just one point behind the leaders with 11. Last time out, they ground out a pragmatic 1-0 away win over Central Español. They don't look to dominate the ball - they'd rather sit back and hit on the counter. And they're good at making those moments count: five shots on target in that last match. The team is in good form and ready to punish any mistake the favourites make.
Match Results: Cerro Largo
Prediction on the over/under
H2H
- today's home team scores on average - 1.44, the guests - 0.94;
- average Over/Under goals in H2H matches - 2.39;
- both teams scored: overall - 10; at the home team's field - 3.
Statistics: Penarol Montevideo vs Cerro Largo
- average total in the tournament: 2.35 vs 2;
- average total goals scored: 1.45 vs 1;
- average total in the 1st half: 0.55 vs 0.45;
- average total in the 2nd half: 0.9 vs 0.55;
- Penarol Montevideo: average total at home in the tournament - 1.5;
- Cerro Largo: average total away in the tournament - 0.73;
- last 10 matches (average total): 1.4 (home - 1.2) vs 1 (away - 0.4).
- Penarol Montevideo have conceded in 13 of last 14 home games.
- Penarol Montevideo have conceded in 12 of last 13 home games (Primera Division).
Prediction on corners
Penarol Montevideo: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 4.65; at home field - 4.9;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 4.2; at home field - 4.8.
Cerro Largo: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 3.2, away - 3.55;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 2.5; away - 2.
Correct score prediction
Statistics of frequent results (current season):
- most common score in the tournament: 0:1 (24/161, 14.9%);
- Penarol Montevideo at home most often finish matches: 1:1 , 2:1 (2/10, 20%);
- Cerro Largo away most often play: 0:1 , 1:0 (3/11, 27.3%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1:0 - 17.8% (odds 5)
0:0 - 12.05% (odds 8)
1:1 - 11.02% (odds 6)
⭐ Editor's Pick
Despite being favourites at home, Peñarol's defence on their own ground keeps letting them down. They've conceded in 13 of their last 14 home matches. Cerro Largo are in good form right now and dangerous on the counter. Given how attacking the hosts play, there will be space behind for the visitors to exploit. Both Teams To Score - Yes looks like the logical call here. A 1-1 draw is one likely outcome.
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Betting Tips: Penarol Montevideo - Cerro Largo
in 7 of last 8 games (Primera Division).
in 14 of last 15 Penarol Montevideo home games (Primera Division).in 12 of last 14 Penarol Montevideo home games.in 9 of last 10 Penarol Montevideo home games.in last 8 Penarol Montevideo games.in last 6 Penarol Montevideo games (Primera Division).in 10 of last 11 Cerro Largo games (Primera Division).in 13 of last 14 home games.in 12 of last 13 home games (Primera Division).
Comparison of Teams Stats
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