Flamengo vs Sao Paulo Prediction 26 July 2026
🔊 Flamengo come into this match off a strong home run and sitting high in the table - second place, with their eyes on Palmeiras above them. São Paulo are twelfth and need to push into the top half. But the gap between Flamengo's home form and São Paulo's struggles on the road could end up deciding how this one plays out.
Head-to-Head
The last official match between the sides took place on 29 January 2026 and ended 2-1. Here's the key stats from that game (home side: São Paulo):
- possession: 41% vs 59%;
- corners: 2 vs 6;
- fouls: 14 vs 11;
- yellow cards: 0 vs 0;
- shots on target: 4 vs 5.
📊 Statistical preview based on official meetings between Flamengo and São Paulo:
- 45 matches played;
- home wins - 15, away wins - 17, draws - 13;
- goals - 55 vs 58;
- average first-half total - 1, second-half - 1.51;
- average total goals per match - 2.51.
Head-to-head statistics Flamengo - Sao Paulo
Flamengo Team Overview
The team's last official match was played on in the Série A (Chapecoense at home, Flamengo away). The match ended 0:4.
Match stats (Flamengo vs Chapecoense):
- possession: 63% vs 37%;
- corners: 3 vs 5;
- fouls: 8 vs 9;
- yellow cards: 0 vs 1;
- shots on target: 6 vs 3.
Flamengo have been living up to their status as one of the tournament favourites - four wins from their last five official matches, with one defeat. Leonardo Jardim's side are a productive attacking unit: 1.94 goals per game across the season, and 1.8 per game over the last ten, conceding less than one (0.8). At home, the attacking numbers stand out even more: at the Maracanã, they've scored more than 1.5 goals in eight consecutive league matches.
Match Results: Flamengo
Sao Paulo Team Overview
The current visitors played their last official match on as part of the Série A tournament (home team - São Paulo, visitors - Athletico Paranaense). The match ended with a score of 1:2.
The match statistics are as follows (São Paulo vs Athletico Paranaense):
- possession percentage: 70% vs 30%;
- corner kicks: 7 vs 3;
- fouls: 7 vs 15;
- yellow cards: 0 vs 1;
- shots on target: 3 vs 3.
Sao Paulo's season has been a mess: one win from their last ten, five defeats and four draws. They're averaging just 1.26 goals per game, while conceding at a rate of 1.16 across the season and 1.5 over the last ten. On the road it's even worse: five straight away defeats in Série A.
Match Results: Sao Paulo
Match Outcome Prediction
Head-to-Head:
- played - 45;
- home wins - 15, away wins - 17, draws - 13.
Statistics: Flamengo vs São Paulo
- matches in tournament: 18 vs 19;
- wins: 11 vs 7;
- win rate: 61% vs 37%;
- losses: 3 vs 8;
- draws: 4 vs 4.
Last 10 matches:
- wins: 6 vs 1;
- losses: 2 vs 5;
- draws: 2 vs 4.
- São Paulo wins with a +1.5 handicap in 9 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these teams.
- São Paulo wins with a +1.5 handicap in 20 of the last 21 matches (Série A).
- São Paulo wins with a +1.5 handicap in 14 of the last 15 matches.
- São Paulo wins with a +1.5 handicap away in 10 of the last 11 matches (Série A).
- São Paulo wins with a +1.5 handicap away in 6 of the last 7 matches.
Total Goals Prediction
Head-to-Head (average total):
- home team - 1.22, away team - 1.29;
- in head-to-head matches - 2.51;
- both teams scored: overall - 23 times; at home - 11 times.
Average total statistics: Flamengo vs São Paulo
- in tournament: 2.83 vs 2.42;
- goals scored: 1.94 vs 1.26;
- in 1st half: 0.89 vs 0.42;
- in 2nd half: 1.06 vs 0.84;
- Flamengo: home in tournament - 2;
- São Paulo: away in tournament - 0.9;
- last 10 matches: 1.8 (home - 1.8) vs 1.1 (away - 0.8).
- Flamengo concedes in 8 of the last 9 head-to-head meetings between these teams.
Corners Prediction
- São Paulo takes more than 3.5 corners in 19 of the last 20 matches.
- São Paulo takes more than 3.5 corners in 12 consecutive matches (Série A).
- São Paulo takes more than 3.5 corners away in 9 of the last 10 matches (Série A).
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Head-to-Head:
- played - 45;
- both teams scored overall - 23 times;
- at home - 11 times.
Statistics: Flamengo vs São Paulo
- played in tournament: 18 vs 19;
- season matches where both teams scored (BTTS): 8 vs 11;
- Flamengo: BTTS home - 3 (38%);
- São Paulo: BTTS away - 6 (60%).
Last 10 matches:
- matches with BTTS: 2 vs 7;
- Flamengo: BTTS home - 1 (20%);
- São Paulo: BTTS away - 3 (60%).
Correct Score Prediction
Statistics of frequent results (current season):
- most common score in tournament: 1:1 (28/189, 14.8%);
- Flamengo at home most often finish with: 2:0, 3:0 (2/8, 25%);
- São Paulo away most often play: 1:0, 1:1, 2:1 (2/10, 20%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top-3 outcomes:
1:0 - 13.37% (odds 6)
2:0 - 11.25% (odds 6.5)
2:1 - 10.74% (odds 7.5)
⭐ Editor's Prediction
The overall trend over the past month backs Flamengo across every key area: solid at home, clinical in front of goal, and reliable at the back. São Paulo's run of away defeats speaks for itself - this side has struggled on the road even against weaker opposition, and now they travel to face one of the best attacking teams in the league, with one of the strongest home structures in the division. Our pick is a straight Flamengo win, based on the hosts' squad quality, their recent form, and São Paulo's prolonged misery away from home. Predicted score: 2-1.
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Betting Tips: Flamengo - Sao Paulo
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