Italy vs Belgium Prediction 25 September 2026
📢 One of the most interesting matches of Matchday 1 in the Nations League takes place at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome. Italy host Belgium - a side with a very strong pool of players but without major achievements on the international stage. That said, Italy themselves have lacked consistency in recent years. Having failed to qualify for the 2026 World Cup, it is particularly important for them to start the new Nations League campaign well and at least begin to win back the trust of their supporters.
🔁 This prediction is updated on the day of the match. Keep an eye on the Latest News section.
Italy maintain control over their clash with Belgium
📊 Over the last few years the two sides have met six times, with Italy holding a clear advantage: five wins and one draw. They were last paired together in autumn 2024, when the draw again placed them in the same Nations League group. In Rome, Italy went 2-0 up quickly but were reduced to ten men before half-time and allowed their opponents to level at 2-2. In the away fixture, though, the Italians got their revenge with a 1-0 win.
Head-to-head statistics Italy - Belgium
Mancini returns to spearhead Italy’s national team reboot
Italy are still regarded as one of the top national sides in the world, a status backed by their impressive record: seven medal hauls at World Cups, including four gold, and five more at European Championships, where they have been crowned champions twice. Their most recent major triumph came not long ago - victory at Euro 2020, whose final was played in 2021.
At world level, though, things have gone considerably worse in recent years. Italy have now failed to qualify for three consecutive World Cups, and even the expansion of the tournament to 48 teams did not help. In the play-off final they lost to Bosnia and Herzegovina - 1-1 after extra time, then 1-4 on penalties. Results like these have seen Italy drop as low as 15th in the FIFA rankings. Roberto Mancini, the man who led Italy to the Euro 2020 title, returned as head coach in the summer, and the expectation is that he will reset the squad and restore at least some of the team's former consistency.
Italy's previous Nations League campaign was a mixed one. In the group stage they collected 13 points from a possible 18 and finished second only on goal difference behind France. In the quarter-finals they fell just short against Germany, losing the tie 4-5 on aggregate. The second leg was particularly memorable: Italy came back from 0-3 down to make it 3-3, but could not find the goal they needed to go further.
Match Results: Italy
Belgium entrust Mark van Bommel with leading their generational transition
Unlike Italy, Belgium have consistently qualified for World Cups, and the 2026 tournament was no exception. They even reached the quarter-finals, where they lost to Spain 1-2, conceding the decisive goal in the 88th minute. The overall performance left a mixed impression, though. A relatively straightforward draw helped them go far. In the group stage Belgium faced Egypt, Iran and New Zealand, but instead of the expected nine points they managed only five. Their only win came against New Zealand in the final round, 5-1. In the knockout stage they beat Senegal 3-2 after extra time and then the United States 4-1, opponents who were clearly below Belgium's level.
As in Italy, there was a managerial change over the summer. Rudi Garcia had taken charge of Belgium in February 2025, guided them through qualification for the 2026 World Cup and led them to the quarter-finals. After the tournament ended, however, the Belgian football association decided not to extend the contract of the French coach. In his farewell statement, Garcia said he was satisfied with the work done, but both parties concluded it was time to part ways. He has been replaced by Dutchman Mark van Bommel, who has signed a contract running until the end of Euro 2028. The federation is hoping the new manager can make the team more consistent and navigate the transition between generations without a serious dip in results.
The previous Nations League campaign, which Belgium played under Domenico Tedesco, was a different story entirely - a clear failure. The team collected just four points in the group and finished third, edging out Israel only on goal difference. That meant a relegation play-off to stay in League A. Even there Belgium made things difficult for themselves: they lost the first leg to Ukraine 1-3, but turned it completely around at home, winning 3-0. All three goals came in a 16-minute spell between the 70th and 86th minutes.
Match Results: Belgium
Latest news
Italy
📌 Italy are heading into the start of the Nations League with a noticeably changed squad: following their failure in the World Cup qualifiers, Roberto Mancini has called up nine debutants. The most notable absentees are Federico Chiesa and Manuel Locatelli, who are both missing the camp through injury. Federico Dimarco was included in the original squad but was unable to recover from a knee injury in time and has already left the camp, with Matteo Ruggeri called up in his place. Bryan Cristante has also dropped out after the squad announcement due to a back problem.
🔁 Update - 25 September, 7:04 UTC:
- According to Football Italia, Mancini has been working extensively on the combination of Moise Kean and Francesco Pio Esposito in one of the most recent training sessions. Analysts are not ruling out the possibility that Italy will start with two strikers from the first minute.
Belgium
❌ Belgium also have a number of absentees. Thibaut Courtois will not feature by his own choice: the goalkeeper has decided to skip the current Nations League campaign and has temporarily stepped away from international duty, having agreed this decision with Marc van Bommel. In addition, Jérémy Doku and Amadou Onana are both absent through injury, which noticeably weakens the first-choice squad.
🔁 Update - 25 September, 10:37 UTC:
- Leandro Trossard did not travel with the squad to Rome. According to Walfoot, the Belgian has injured his heel bone. However, no official confirmation has come from the national team's representatives that he has left the squad. The Beşiktaş winger may be available for the remaining matches in the cycle.
🔁 Update - 25 September, 10:47 UTC:
- Belgium's most likely second-choice goalkeeper, Mike Penders, will also miss the upcoming match. The Chelsea goalkeeper is experiencing quadriceps discomfort, according to SB Nation. He remained at Belgium's training base and did not travel to Rome. Senne Lammens will start in goal against Italy - the only goalkeeper in the current squad with senior international experience. Maarten Vandevoordt is expected to be the second choice, with Jari De Busser as third goalkeeper.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Italy predicted starting XI: Donnarumma - Kayode, Mancini, Bastoni, Calafiori - Romano, Barella, Tonali - Zaniolo, Pio Esposito, Raspadori.
📋 Belgium predicted starting XI: Lammens - Castagne, De Winter, Debast, De Cuyper - Tielemans, Lavia - Godts, Lukebakio, De Bruyne - De Ketelaere.
⚽️ Goals Prediction
At the 2026 World Cup, Belgium's matches produced goals in abundance - Both Teams to Score landed in 5 of their 6 games at the tournament. The only exception was the match against Iran (0:0). An inconsistent Italy side are unlikely to hold firm defensively for the full 90 minutes, and at the same time they need to score at home. We're expecting goals at both ends. Odds: 1.68*.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Italy don't get to the corner flag all that often in the Nations League. In 12 of their last 14 matches in the competition, they took fewer than six corners. That scenario looks realistic against Belgium too: the visitors are unlikely to allow the hosts to pin them back and repeatedly force the ball behind for extended periods. We're backing Italy Team Total Corners - Under 5.5 at odds of 1.59*.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
Although referees at the 2026 World Cup were instructed not to be too liberal with bookings, Belgium regularly pushed them away from that approach. The only exceptions were the matches against New Zealand and the USA, where Belgium won comfortably and had little need to foul (0 cards). In the other four matches, the Belgians picked up at least two cards in every game (including a booking for the head coach and a red card in the match against Iran). We're backing Belgium Team Total - Over 1.5 Yellow Cards at odds of 1.69*.
🚀 Player Statistics Bet
Riccardo Calafiori has made a lively start to the new season and has already contributed several goal involvements. He scored against Manchester City in the Community Shield, then provided assists in matches against Coventry City and Aston Villa. He also had a goal against Chelsea, but it was ruled out for offside. The defender is getting forward regularly and is in good form, so it's worth a punt on Riccardo Calafiori to Score or Assist at odds of 7.20*.
😱 Risky Bet
Some of Belgium's matches turn into high-scoring affairs. At the 2026 World Cup, three of their six games featured at least five goals. For those who like a risk, Total Goals - Over 4 is worth considering at odds of 4.90*.
🎯 Reliable Bet
For those who prefer something safer, we'd suggest backing Italy to Score at odds of 1.22*. They rarely leave the pitch without finding the net - they scored in 17 of their last 18 official matches.
👀 If the Match Doesn't Go to Script
Despite plenty of pointers towards an open, high-scoring game, a low-scoring outcome can't be ruled out. For both sides, this will be their first match under a new manager, and in a short space of time the players may not yet have fully taken on board what the new coaching staff want. That could make the game less coherent and polished than expected, particularly if both teams start cautiously and focus more on defensive shape. As an alternative, Total Goals - Under 2.5 is available at odds of 2.06*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐️ Editorial Prediction
The bookmakers make Italy favourites, but betting on the result here is fairly risky. The hosts have gone through significant changes, and Belgium are not noticeably weaker in terms of squad quality. Both sides will surely want to start the new Nations League campaign with a win, so the game could open up considerably after the first goal goes in. And given that at least three goals were scored in 9 of Italy's last 10 Nations League matches, our main bet is Total Goals - Over 2.5. The expected score is 2-2.
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Betting Tips: Italy - Belgium
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in 6 of last 7 Daniel Siebert games.
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