Real Madrid vs Benfica Prediction
🔊 Is it all over for Benfica? The return leg of the playoff will take place at the Santiago Bernabéu, where the Lisbon side will face the Madrid team without José Mourinho on the sidelines. Our editorial team hopes to see more football and fewer controversies in this encounter. However, no surprises are expected: Real Madrid have won their last six home matches in a row, and with a one-goal advantage, Los Blancos are unlikely to hand over the qualification spot to the Portuguese team. Nonetheless, it's important to note that the Royal Club continues to show inconsistency this season, so anything can happen.
Head-to-Head
📊 Last Tuesday, Real Madrid avenged their defeat in the final round of the group stage (2-4) with a brilliant performance by Vinicius Junior (1-0).
H2H Stats Matches and Previous Teams Results
Real Madrid Team Overview
⚪ Álvaro Arbeloa clearly learned from the previous defeat to Benfica in the group stage and arrived in Lisbon with a determined intent to secure a result. By halftime, Los Blancos should have been leading by 3-4 goals, but either Benfica's goalkeeper made crucial saves or the ball narrowly missed the target. Early in the second half, Vinícius' skillful finish sealed the final score, allowing Real to feel comfortable ahead of the return leg at home.
🔵 However, their victory in Lisbon was overshadowed by their La Liga performance. In the 25th round, they traveled to Pamplona for a match against Osasuna (1-2), where they dropped crucial points. After the break, Vinícius leveled the score by converting Valverde's cross, but in the last minute of regular time, the Royal club's defense faltered, conceding a second goal. As a result, Real relinquished the top spot to Barcelona and now trail by a single point.
Match Results: Real Madrid
Benfica Lisbon Team Overview
🔴 The "Eagles" suffered a well-deserved defeat in the first leg. They were fortunate the scoreline wasn't more lopsided, as they only managed 0.58 xG, compared to an impressive 3.04 xG in their group stage clash against Real Madrid. Although all is not lost for the team, overcoming Real at the Bernabeu is typically a feat reserved for Europe's elite clubs. Additionally, José Mourinho will be absent from the technical area, having been sent off in the previous match.
⚪ On Saturday, Benfica returned to domestic action and dominated in their 23rd round fixture, thrashing ABC 3-0 at home, with goals from Alexander Bah, Enzo Barrenechea, and Rafa Silva sealing the result by halftime. With 11 rounds remaining, the "Eagles" trail league leaders Porto by 7 points and are three points behind second-placed Sporting. Their title chances look slim, but they are likely to retain third place, holding a 13-point cushion over Braga.
Match Results: Benfica Lisbon
Latest news
Real Madrid
🎙️ Álvaro Arbeloa after the match against Osasuna: "I'm not disappointed. Nobody likes to lose, but the season is going to be very long - it's essentially just beginning. We controlled the game in the first half but lacked pace. Against a low block, you need to move the ball faster and take on defenders more frequently down the flanks. We have another match on Wednesday, and we need to approach it in top form."
❌ Jude Bellingham will miss several more matches due to a hamstring injury. Éder Militão is dealing with a similar issue. Dean Huijsen missed the match against Osasuna because of a muscle injury. Dani Ceballos has been diagnosed with a right calf muscle injury and is expected to be out for around seven weeks. Rodrygo is also experiencing muscle problems and will miss the game due to the red card he received in the final group stage match against Benfica.
Benfica Lisbon
🎙️ José Mourinho after the weekend's victory: "These have been challenging days for everyone. ABC played professionally, but we managed to get the job done. Had we not won today, we would be heading to Barcelos (referring to the 24th round game against Gil Vicente this weekend) with different ambitions and plans. Our direct competitor won today, so we assume the other will win as well. This game motivates us for the match in Barcelos, rather than the meeting on Wednesday."
❌ Georgiy Sudakov was left out of the squad against ABC due to back pain-his participation in the return leg is questionable. Additionally, UEFA has temporarily suspended Gianluca Prestianni from the match against Real following an incident in the previous encounter: Vinicius accused the opponent of racism.
🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards
Slavko Vincic has been appointed as the main referee for the match at the Bernabeu. The Slovenian official has averaged 3.6 yellow cards per game in his last 10 outings. In the previous two encounters between Benfica and Real Madrid, the total exceeded 3.5 yellow cards. This trend is also common in both teams' domestic league matches, so we are opting for this outcome.
⚽ Goal Prediction
Considering the advantage Los Blancos had in Lisbon, a similar scenario might unfold in Madrid. Despite needing to come back, Benfica are likely to focus on defense, counterattacks, and set pieces. We are backing Real Madrid's individual total over 1.5 goals, as this has been achieved in their last six home matches at the Bernabeu.
🚩 Corner Prediction
In the last head-to-head, Real Madrid had the upper hand in corners: six to Benfica's three. Although the Lisbon side dominates the Portuguese league, Real Madrid are a different caliber. It will be extremely challenging for the visitors to outdo the hosts in this aspect at the Bernabeu. We are choosing total corners under 11.5, which has occurred in 7 of Benfica's last 8 matches.
🚀 Player Stats Bet
Vinicius Junior has significantly improved since Alvaro Arbeloa took over as head coach of Los Blancos. The Brazilian has netted five goals in his last four matches. If he scores on Wednesday, he will tie his personal record of scoring in five consecutive games, a feat he last achieved with Flamengo in 2018. Our bet is on a Vinicius goal with odds of 2.14.
😱 Risky Bet
If Benfica manage to withstand the pressure and the game turns into a tactical battle, Real Madrid might not push too hard, playing to maintain their lead. In this scenario, consider the option of 0 goals in the first half. This suggests a pragmatic win without a blowout, such as 1-0 or 2-0. The odds for this outcome are 4.10*.
👀 If the Match Doesn't Go as Planned
If Real Madrid fail to impose their tempo early and Benfica play disciplined defense, the match could become a drawn-out cautious affair with few chances. In this case, consider total goals under 2.5. Even with Madrid's advantage, a tight game at a slow pace could result in a modest scoreline like 1-0 or 1-1. The odds for this outcome are 2.63*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
Editor's Prediction
Madrid are expected to secure the win: they hold the aggregate advantage, have home-field advantage, a deeper squad, and their opponents are without a head coach.
Benfica are aware that their chances of progressing to the next round are slim. Meanwhile, Arbeloa’s side will be eager to regain confidence and make amends for their La Liga defeat.
Benfica have managed only one away win in the Champions League against a team of comparable level, while losing to more prominent opponents. We’re betting on a Real Madrid win with a -1 handicap, considering a potential rout, such as a 3-0 scoreline.
Betting Tips: Real Madrid - Benfica Lisbon
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Comparison of Teams Stats
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