Benfica vs Real Madrid Prediction
🔊 Can José Mourinho once again defeat Real Madrid? At the conclusion of the Champions League group stage, Benfica pulled off the impossible by defeating the "Los Blancos" 4-2. Now, three weeks later, fate brings the teams together again in the knockout round. With the return leg at the Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid are seen as clear favorites to win the two-legged tie, yet bookmakers remain skeptical about their victory at the Estádio da Luz. Let's delve into the details. Here we go!
Head-to-Head
📊 The recent head-to-head was the first official meeting between the teams in the 21st century. Real Madrid opened the scoring, but Benfica turned the game around and secured a well-deserved victory. Vangelis Pavlidis contributed with a goal and two assists, while goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin scored in the dying moments to send the "Eagles" into the playoffs.
H2H Stats Matches and Previous Teams Results
Benfica Lisbon Team Overview
Before the final round of the Champions League group stage, Benfica's chances of advancing to the playoffs were estimated at 28.74%, but that was more than enough for José Mourinho. The "Eagles" delivered a phenomenal performance against Real Madrid and then dropped points in only one of their three Portuguese league matches-against Tondela (0-0). During that match, the team simply failed to convert a plethora of opportunities, generating an expected goals tally of 2.75.
It's crucial to highlight just how formidable Benfica are on home turf. The "Reds" have notched up six consecutive victories here, starting with a win over Napoli (2-0), which kicked off the streak. In five out of these six matches, Mourinho's side scored more than 1.5 goals, giving their visitors from Madrid plenty of reasons to be concerned.
Match Results: Benfica Lisbon
Real Madrid Team Overview
17.38% - that was the probability of Real Madrid heading to the playoffs before the eighth round of the group stage. Álvaro Arbeloa's side entered the match against Benfica in great form, but they were overwhelmed by the Lisbon downpour and were comprehensively outplayed by the Eagles. However, it's worth noting that lessons were learned, and this setback positively influenced Los Blancos' subsequent results.
Madrid have won their last three matches, allowing them to overtake Barcelona in the La Liga standings, although the Catalans have a game in hand. It's important to highlight the individual contribution of Vinícius, who scored a brace against Real Sociedad (4-1), taking on the goal-scoring responsibilities in Kylian Mbappé's absence. The Brazilian earned two penalties and coolly converted them himself.
Match Results: Real Madrid
Latest news
Benfica Lisbon
🎙 Jose Mourinho ahead of the upcoming clash: "This will be a very tough match, just the first leg of the playoffs. There will be no Trubin in attack at the Estádio da Luz. I'm used to these kinds of encounters; I've been doing it my whole life. Often, people think that in the first match, for one reason or another, a certain result must be achieved. I say there is no final result yet. We'll approach the first leg with a calm mindset, ambition, and confidence. We understand what we did with the kings of the Champions League. They are wounded, and a wounded king is dangerous."
❌ Benfica have long been without Alexander Bah and Dodi Lukebakio due to injuries. The team has adapted to playing without them. Since mid-January, Richard Rios has been sidelined, only recently starting training after a shoulder dislocation. Fredrik Aursnes picked up an injury in the last Primeira Liga match, and his participation against Madrid remains uncertain.
Real Madrid
🎙 Álvaro Arbeloa at the latest press conference: “We can adapt to different styles. We are capable of playing possession-based football. However, we also have incredibly fast players who allow us to excel on the counter-attack. Regarding the upcoming match against Benfica, we know it will be a tough game, partly due to the opponent's passionate fans. We need to focus solely on winning this match. It's not the time to think about the return leg.”
❌ Real Madrid face four roster setbacks. Éder Militão and Jude Bellingham are injured, Raúl Asensio is suspended, and Rodrygo is unavailable for both reasons. Meanwhile, Álvaro Arbeloa deliberately rested Kylian Mbappé by not fielding him in the league match. The Frenchman will be ready for the clash with Benfica.
🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards
The last encounter between these teams was a heated affair, resulting in 5 yellow and 2 red cards. Given how soon they meet again, we believe tensions remain high and are backing over 3.5 yellow cards. Referee François Letexier's average over his last 10 club-level matches is precisely 3.5 yellow cards per game. Both Benfica and Real Madrid aren't known for playing cautiously, receiving 2.4 and 2.8 cautions per game respectively in this season's Champions League.
⚽️ Goal Prediction
After the fireworks in their last clash, a straightforward bet would be both teams to score. This has been the case in Real Madrid's last four Champions League fixtures. The "Los Blancos" have exchanged goals with Benfica twice, and with Olympiacos (4-3) thrice. Madrid's defense is particularly vulnerable on the road, so we opt for both teams to score (yes).
🚩 Corner Prediction
Betting on the "over" for corners is a staple in matches involving Real Madrid: over 9.5 corners has hit in 13 of their last 14 games. In this season's Champions League, Benfica averages 5.4 corners per game, while Madrid averages 6.6. Therefore, we expect both teams to exceed the corner total. In their previous meeting, they managed to deliver 11 corner kicks.
Editor's Prediction
Real Madrid were so underwhelming in their last outing at the Estádio da Luz that it's hard to see them as favorites this time around. Nevertheless, Los Blancos did manage to score twice in that match, maintaining a streak of netting at least two goals in each of their last 14 games! With stars like these, Álvaro Arbeloa's side always poses a threat up front, but their defense remains unreliable, forcing them into high-scoring shootouts. We anticipate a similar scenario here, which leads us to back the over 2.5 goals market, a bet that has landed in Real's last four Champions League matches. We're expecting an exciting game and predict a thrilling 2-2 draw.
Betting Tips: Benfica Lisbon - Real Madrid
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