Benfica vs Real Madrid Prediction
🔊 Can José Mourinho outsmart his former team? Benfica face off against Real Madrid in the final round of the Champions League group stage. The "Los Blancos" are already through to the knockout phase, but the "Eagles" aren't assured of the same fate, even with a win. Too many factors need to align for them, especially since the hosts at Estádio da Luz trail the top 24 by two points. Naturally, they aren't the favorites in this upcoming clash.
Head-to-Head
📊 Surprisingly, these prestigious clubs have not faced each other in an official match in the 21st century. The upcoming game will be their first encounter.
H2H Stats Matches and Previous Teams Results
Benfica Lisbon Team Overview
Benfica have been a consistent force in the Champions League in recent seasons, regularly reaching the knockout stages. However, this year they are at risk of a significant setback. With only six points from seven matches and unexpected home defeats to Qarabag (2-3) and Bayer Leverkusen (0-1), their campaign is on shaky ground. The Eagles found their winning stride only by the fifth round, but after two solid victories, they stumbled against Juventus (0-2). Their last hope for points in Turin was dashed when Vangelis Pavlidis missed a penalty in the 81st minute.
It's worth noting that Benfica are also struggling in domestic competitions. In January, they missed out on a trophy after losing to Braga (1-3) in the League Cup semi-final and fell to Porto (0-1) in the Primeira Liga. They trail the league-leading Dragons by ten points, leaving their title aspirations nearly out of reach.
Match Results: Benfica Lisbon
Real Madrid Team Overview
Despite their shocking exit from the Copa del Rey at the hands of Albacete (2-3), it seems that the change in head coach has benefited Real Madrid. The atmosphere in the dressing room has improved, and Los Blancos have secured three consecutive victories with an aggregate score of 10-1. Kylian Mbappé has recovered from injury and is once again showcasing his incredible scoring ability, netting five goals during this stretch. The forward bagged a brace in the resounding Champions League win over Monaco (6-1).
However, the standout performer in that match was Vinícius, who contributed with a goal and two assists. The Brazilian needs just three more assists to become Madrid's top provider in the Champions League, surpassing Cristiano Ronaldo. Shifting focus back to the team, it's worth noting that in their favored European competition, Los Blancos are not facing any major issues. They currently sit in third place, and according to statistical portal Opta, the likelihood of them having to play in the playoffs is just 17.38%.
Match Results: Real Madrid
Latest news
Benfica Lisbon
📌 According to Record, around 200 Benfica fans recently stormed the club's training ground, demanding a meeting with the management. Displeased with the team's performances, the supporters were unable to meet with President Rui Costa but voiced their grievances to other club officials, including CEO Mario Branco, technical director Simao Sabrosa, and head coach Jose Mourinho.
❌ Alexander Bah and Dodi Lukebakio have been sidelined with injuries for quite some time, while key midfielder Richard Rios was ruled out in mid-January. New signings Sidney Lopes Cabral and Rafa Silva will also miss the clash against Real Madrid, as they are not registered for the Champions League.
Real Madrid
🎙 Álvaro Arbeloa, following the 2-0 victory over Villarreal last weekend: "I'm incredibly proud of the boys. This win is a testament to their hard work. They are highly motivated and committed, willing to make sacrifices for the team's success. We haven't had much time to work on the training ground, but the players are gradually understanding my demands. We certainly have room for growth, but over time, things will become easier."
❌ Defense remains Real's most problematic area. Three defenders are still sidelined: Trent Alexander-Arnold, Éder Militão, and Ferland Mendy. Antonio Rüdiger has just returned to team training, and reports have surfaced that Raúl Asensio has been playing with a minor fracture in his right tibia for a month. The cantera product is reluctant to miss matches given the already challenging personnel situation within the squad.
🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards
The match will be officiated by Davide Massa. The Italian referee averages just 2.3 yellow cards per game in the current Champions League season, but in Serie A, this figure rises significantly to 4.4. As for today's opponents, they tend to play quite aggressively, so referees usually don't hold back on cards: Benfica average 1.8 per game, while Real Madrid see 2.1.
The upcoming match is crucial for both teams, so we don't expect a gentlemanly affair. Considering the statistics, we're betting on a total of over 3.5 yellow cards.
⚽️ Goal Prediction
The "Los Blancos" are in decent form and are not just favorites. Despite some issues, their scoring remains high-Real Madrid have scored more than 1.5 goals in ten consecutive matches. We believe Mbappe and company will extend this streak against a less stable and noticeably inferior Benfica.
🚩 Corner Prediction
The game is expected to be dynamic with plenty of chances, so we anticipate a total of over 9.5 corners. This has been the case in 9 out of Real Madrid's last 10 matches. Both teams have high average corner stats: 5.7 versus 6.9 in favor of Madrid.
Editor's Prediction
Benfica's chances of advancing to the playoffs are estimated at 28.74%. For the "Special One's" team, it's not just about defeating Real Madrid; they must also hope for favorable outcomes in the other matches happening simultaneously. This is unlikely to dampen the Eagles' motivation at home, but we still don't believe in the hosts' success.
The main reason is the transformation of Madrid under Arbeloa's leadership. The coach has shifted the focus from structure to individual brilliance, which perfectly suits the Galacticos' stars to showcase their best football. While there might be challenges against well-organized top teams, Real should comfortably overcome Benfica, who under Mourinho seem to lack a clear strategy, and advance to the Round of 16. We anticipate a final score of 1-3 at Estádio da Luz and are betting on a Real Madrid victory.
Betting Tips: Benfica Lisbon - Real Madrid
in 10 of last 11 home games.
in 8 of last 9 away games.in last 19 Benfica Lisbon games.in last 8 Benfica Lisbon home games.
in last 12 Davide Massa games (in the Champions League).in 10 of last 11 Benfica Lisbon games (Champions League).in last 6 Davide Massa games.
Comparison of Teams Stats
Other predictions
