Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 24 October 2026

📊 The two sides have met 23 times, and Madrid's record borders on embarrassing: 17 wins to Deportivo's three, with three draws. Atlético are particularly dominant at home, where in recent head-to-head meetings they have given the Galicians almost no chance.

Atlético's recent results make it easy to forget that not long ago Simeone's side were associated above all with caution. They have scored 19 goals in nine league rounds - an average of 2.11 per match, and at home that figure rises to 2.5. Their defence has lost none of its reliability either, conceding just eight times in the league and keeping four clean sheets.

Deportivo have scored in 8 of their 9 league rounds and found the net in all four of their away matches. But the Galicians will now have to manage without their top scorer, and at the Metropolitano they face a defence that allows opponents an average of fewer than 10 shots per match. In a cup meeting in January, Deportivo already experienced that first-hand, failing to score. The pick is Both Teams to Score - No at 1.75*.

Atlético attack a lot, but their corner count doesn't always reflect their dominance. Over nine league rounds they have earned 57 corners - an average of 6.33 per match. At the Metropolitano the figure is lower: 22 corners in four home games, or 5.5 per match. They reached seven or more only once at home, when they thrashed Osasuna. In their other home matches, fewer set pieces were enough. Our pick: Atlético Madrid Team Total Corners - Under 6.5 at 1.99*.

Atlético's matches average 4.22 yellow cards, while Deportivo's average 4.11. At least five bookings have been shown in only 4 of Atlético's 9 matches and in 3 of Deportivo's 9 matches. In other words, neither side regularly turns games into a constant stream of fouls.

The difference in class is also worth bearing in mind. Atlético can control the ball, forcing Deportivo to defend for longer periods. That said, the visitors average 13 fouls per game while Atlético average around 12. Their cup meeting in January also passed without a large number of bookings. The pick here is Total Yellow Cards - Under 4.5.

Alex Baena has unexpectedly become Atlético's top scorer. The midfielder has scored 5 goals in nine league rounds, with his latest winning the game against Espanyol. He regularly makes runs from deep, finds space between the lines and looks for shooting opportunities himself. We'll go with Alex Baena to Score.

Atlético are not only winning regularly but winning big. In the current league season they have beaten Osasuna 4-0, Real Sociedad 3-0 and Athletic 3-0. Two of those heavy wins came away from home, but Simeone's side have shown they can take a firm grip on matches at home just as quickly and not let go until the final whistle. Prediction: Atlético Madrid - Handicap -2.5 at 2.85*.

Seven wins from nine rounds, an unbeaten home run and 22 points from a possible 27. Atlético are giving little reason to doubt their quality. Even in difficult spells, Simeone's side have managed to avoid defeat. Deportivo are in the opposite situation. The Galicians try to play with ambition and regularly create chances, but they have not won in five rounds. That is why we are backing an Atlético win at 1.30*.

Deportivo are capable of making life difficult for the hosts early on. The Galicians have already shown they can hold the ball for extended periods and prevent opponents from taking control straight away. In the January cup match, Atlético also had to work hard - the only goal that day did not come until the 61st minute.

After a gruelling away trip to Stuttgart, Simeone is unlikely to want the game to turn into an end-to-end affair from the first whistle. If Deportivo can withstand the early pressure, the main action may well unfold in the second half. The bet: Total Goals - Under 1.5 in the 1st Half at 1.65*.

*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.

⭐️ Editorial Prediction

Atlético are too good right now to drop points at home against a side that has stopped winning. They have improved their finishing, found goals even in difficult matches and kept their defence solid. At the Metropolitano they score more than two goals a match, and Deportivo have yet to keep a clean sheet in the current league season.

The visitors will no doubt try to be more cautious than usual, but holding out under pressure for the full match will be difficult. Atlético can afford to build their lead at their own pace, using fresh players after the break. Predicted score: 3-0. Main bet: Atlético to win - Handicap -1.5.