Alaves vs Malaga Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 23 October 2026

📊 The two sides have met 20 times. Málaga have a slight edge with nine wins to Alavés's eight, with three draws. Historically this fixture has not been particularly high-scoring: an average of 1.8 goals per game, and both teams scored in only 35% of meetings. The last time they faced each other was in the 2022/23 Segunda División, and each side won at home. Málaga won 1-0, and Alavés took revenge in the return fixture, winning 2-1.

Alavés haven't had a truly prolific match in attack for a while, but their home record still looks solid enough. Across five matches at Mendizorroza, the Basques have scored 10 goals - an average of exactly 2 per game. That said, their last two home matches both ended in defeat, so they will need to rediscover their confidence in front of goal.

Málaga look like the kind of opponents against which Alavés can start finding the net again. The Andalusians are conceding an average of 2 goals per match, and have shipped eight goals across their four away fixtures. There are too many individual errors at the back, and even after decent spells Funes's side cannot maintain their concentration through to the final whistle. The pick is Alavés Team Total - Over 1.5 at 1.92*.

Málaga's results have been disastrous, but their corner count has held up reasonably well. Over nine rounds they have earned 51 corners - an average of 5.67 per match. That figure looks quite different against the backdrop of their modest scoring record, meaning they are getting into dangerous areas more often than they are converting.

In their last five matches Málaga have won at least four corners. That trend has held even against stronger opponents. Funes looks to use the flanks and does not abandon attacking play even when the scoreline is against them. Against Alavés, who need to end their losing run, the visitors will likely find space for their own forays forward. Our pick: Málaga Team Total Corners - Over 3.5 at 1.59*.

The Basques have picked up 15 yellow cards in nine rounds - an average of 1.67 per match - while the Andalusians have accumulated 23 bookings, averaging 2.56 per game. Málaga have committed 104 fouls compared to 123 by the hosts, meaning Funes's side break the rules less often but get punished by referees more frequently.

In recent matches, Málaga's yellow card numbers have varied. They received five bookings against Villarreal, four against Espanyol, and none against Sociedad. At Mendizorroza, they will have to work hard against Alavés's physical forwards and get involved in regular aerial and physical battles. Given Málaga's current defensive problems, those situations could lead to fouls and bookings. We're backing Málaga Team Total - Over 1.5 Yellow Cards.

*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.

⭐️ Editorial Prediction

Five matches without a win is a cause for concern, but Alavés at least have a clear sense of how they can return to their previous form. Flores's side have already shown they can move the ball forward quickly, exploit defensive errors and finish off opponents after scoring the first goal. Málaga, by contrast, regularly lose players in dangerous areas and concede shots from inside the box far too easily. The recent heavy defeat to Real Sociedad only exposed problems that had been building since August.

The Andalusians are also without several options on the flanks, while the Basques, after two consecutive home defeats, will surely look to be more aggressive. The visitors have enough character to fight until the end, but determination alone is not enough in La Liga. At home, Alavés have already thrashed Getafe and Osasuna, and Málaga's defence looks less reliable. Predicted score: 2-0. Main bet: Alavés Team Total - Over 1.5 goals.