Valencia vs Villarreal Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 24 October 2026

📊 The two sides have met 42 times. Villarreal lead on wins - 19 to Valencia's 14, with nine draws. On average, the matches produce 2.69 goals. Recent years have been noticeably more successful for the Yellow Submarine. Villarreal are unbeaten in their last five meetings with their neighbours - three wins and two draws.

Valencia have been struggling to score. At Mestalla, they have managed just two goals in five home league rounds, both against Real Sociedad. In the other four home matches they have failed to find the net. Villarreal's defence, meanwhile, has been regularly helping opponents improve that kind of record. In five away matches in this season's league campaign, the Yellow Submarine have conceded seven goals and have not kept a single clean sheet.

Villarreal's attack is keeping pace. They have scored in six of their nine La Liga matches, and in six of those nine games both sides have found the net. Even at Liverpool, where they spent much of the match defending, they still managed three scoring moments. Valencia under Aguirre are gradually creating more chances, and the visitors have built up fatigue from European competition that could affect the concentration of their defenders. The pick: Both Teams to Score - Yes at 1.60*.

Over nine rounds, Villarreal have won 64 corners - an average of 7.11 per match, the second-highest figure in La Liga. They earned at least 5 corners in 7 of their 9 matches, and their away average stands at 6.6. Even in a goalless match against Elche, they won 10 corners.

Valencia present the opposite picture. At home, the Bats concede an average of 3.8 corners, though that figure rose to 6 against Athletic. Aguirre's side frequently cede the initiative and look to hit back quickly on the break. Villarreal, meanwhile, keep pressing down the flanks, delivering crosses and loading the box. Our pick: Villarreal Team Total Corners - Over 4.5 at 1.62*.

Valencia have picked up 20 yellow cards in nine league rounds - an average of 2.22 per match. They have received at least three bookings in only three of those fixtures. Their home record is even more modest, averaging two yellows per game.

The derby will inevitably add some tension, particularly given the hosts' position in the table. But under Aguirre, Valencia have been trying to play in a more compact shape, and their overall foul count is not alarming - 98 fouls in nine matches. Villarreal themselves also pick up relatively few bookings, just 16 over the same period. A completely calm evening at Mestalla is hard to expect, but Valencia's current numbers suggest the hosts are unlikely to accumulate many cards. We're backing Valencia Team Total - Under 2.5 Yellow Cards.

*Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.

⭐️ Editorial Prediction

Valencia look more like a team trying to arrest a slide than a derby contender. Under their new manager the defence has become more compact, and the attack is gradually starting to find space. Against Athletic that wasn't enough to score, but it may be against Villarreal. The visitors arrive with different problems. There is enough quality up front to score even against top sides, but the defence regularly undoes the attacking work. In the current league campaign the team have conceded as many as they have scored, and after the Liverpool match the questions about their defensive reliability have only grown louder.

Valencia have had a full week to prepare and will look to play with confidence at home. The visitors have enough to punish the hosts for mistakes, but they are not keeping their own goal well protected either. Predicted score: 1-2. Main bet: Total Goals - Over 2.5.