Union vs Dortmund Prediction 24 January 2026
🔊 Does Borussia have enough in the tank? The clash between Union and Borussia at the "An der Alten Försterei" holds special significance for the hosts: on Tuesday, the Berlin club celebrated its 60th anniversary at this very stadium. Union rightfully sit in the middle of the league table, while trips to the capital have historically been challenging for Borussia. Additionally, the visitors face a more demanding schedule, so our editorial team does not see Niko Kovac's side as the clear favorites in this matchup. We'll break down all the details in our prediction.
Head-to-Head
📊 A brace from Serhou Guirassy and a goal by Felix Nmecha powered Borussia to a victory in their first home game of the season, defeating Union 3-0 in the second round. In the Bundesliga, the Black and Yellows have won all seven encounters against Union at Signal Iduna Park. However, trips to the capital have proved more challenging, with four defeats (including a 2-1 loss last season) and just two wins in their other matches.
Head-to-head statistics Union - Dortmund
Union Team Overview
🔴 After securing a hard-fought draw in Augsburg (2-2), the Berlin side embarked on their second consecutive away game, this time against Stuttgart, who are vying for a Champions League spot this season. Conceding a goal just past the hour mark, Union threw everything into the attack and were rewarded late on: following a flank run and cross from Stanley Nsoki, Jeong Woo-yeong struck from inside the box to score against his former club, earning his current team a 1-1 draw.
⚪ This goal allowed the South Korean to extend Union's unbeaten run in the Bundesliga to five matches. During this stretch, the capital side secured two wins and played to three consecutive draws. Once again, the Berliners showcased their resilience, living up to their nickname "The Iron Ones": in each of their last three matches, they equalized in the final 10 minutes. Steffen Baumgart's squad sits ninth after 18 rounds, with 24 points-level with eighth-placed Freiburg.
Match Results: Union
Borussia Dortmund Team Overview
🟡 In the 18th round, Borussia let slip a two-goal lead but still clinched three points thanks to a stoppage-time penalty converted by Emre Can. After goals from Julian Brandt and Karim Adeyemi in their home match against St. Pauli (3-2), it seemed like victory was already in the bag for the "Black and Yellows." However, the visitors leveled the score within 10 minutes midway through the second half, only to falter in the end by conceding a penalty due to a careless foul in their own box. Borussia remain unbeaten in their last 11 league matches, sitting second, six points ahead of third-placed Hoffenheim, but trailing Bayern by 11 points.
⚫ Following their victory over St. Pauli, Dortmund suffered a defeat on Tuesday in the 7th round of the Champions League group stage against Tottenham in London (0-2). In that match, Daniel Svensson received a straight red card. As a result, Borussia have dropped to 16th place in the standings and will be battling Inter in their final home match to improve their position.
Match Results: Borussia Dortmund
Latest news
Union
🎙 Steffen Baumgart ahead of the match against Dortmund: "No one needs motivation to face Borussia Dortmund. The game will be under the floodlights, and the away section will be packed to the brim. We're eagerly anticipating this challenge. If I were to assess Dortmund as an opposing coach, I'd look at their results, their play, their second-place standing, one of the best defenses in the league, and their absolutely powerful attack. But we're focused on ourselves. At home, we have certain advantages, and we'll approach the situation accordingly."
📝 Union's captain Christopher Trimmel has extended his contract with the club. On Tuesday, the Berliners celebrated their 60th anniversary at the "An der Alten Försterei" stadium, and as part of the festivities, the Austrian signed a new deal for another season, which will be his 13th with the club. Trimmel joined Union in 2014 from Vienna's Rapid, when the team was competing in the Second Bundesliga, and became captain before the 2018/19 season. That season, the Berliners made their historic debut in Germany's top flight and have remained there since. Trimmel has played more matches for Union than any other player in the club's history-378. This season, he has appeared in 18 matches across all competitions.
❌ The "Iron Ones" are still without Robert Skov, Tom Rothe, Tim Skarke, and Dmitriy Bogdanov. Derrick Köhn will miss his second consecutive match due to a red card received in the game against Augsburg.
Borussia Dortmund
🎙 Niko Kovač ahead of the trip to Berlin: "If we combine our undeniable quality with physical strength for the full 90 minutes, ultimately the best team will prevail. It will be a battle from the first to the last minute. My main demand is the will to confront Union, and then comes football. I know we have areas to work on, but I also see that we've significantly improved our game compared to last season. A year ago, criticism was more about results than style. I'm not entirely satisfied with certain aspects either. If you win only 36 percent of duels in the first half, winning becomes difficult. For me, football is primarily about intensity, aggression, and fight. Duels are the lifeblood of football."
❌ Except for Marcel Sabitzer (calf muscle issues), all players are fit for the game.
🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards
The main referee for the match is Robert Hartmann. In his most recent officiating duty during the Leipzig vs. Freiburg clash, he handed out a total of four yellow cards. Looking at Hartmann's last 10 matches, the average total stands at 4.5 cautions. Union rank third in the league for yellow cards, averaging 2.2 per match. Borussia share the seventh spot with Bayern, averaging 1.8. We are opting for Borussia's individual total to exceed 1.5 yellow cards, as this outcome has occurred in six of their last seven Bundesliga matches.
⚽ Goal Prediction
Historically, Union have conceded to Borussia in the second half in 11 of their last 12 Bundesliga encounters. We are backing a Borussia goal after the break, particularly since Dortmund have scored in the second half in eight of their last nine league games. Additionally, the Berlin side have conceded post-interval in their last four consecutive home matches.
🚩 Corner Prediction
Both teams deliver a significant number of corners per match: Union average 5.2, while Borussia average 5.1. However, for this game, we are selecting Borussia's individual total to be under 5.5 corners, a scenario that has played out in 12 of Borussia's last 13 away Bundesliga matches.
Editor's Prediction
The Berlin side hold the lowest possession rate in the league at just 41%, and over a third of their goals (37%) come from set pieces, ranking them second in the Bundesliga for this statistic. Their defenders pose the main threat, scoring more frequently than the forwards. Central defender Danilho Doekhi is the team's second top scorer with four goals, trailing only forward Ilyas Ansa, who has five. It's also worth noting Baumgart's effective substitutions: all four of Union's goals in 2026 have been scored by players coming off the bench.
Our prediction is both teams to score (yes). This outcome has occurred in seven of Union's last eight matches and in Borussia's last four away games in the Bundesliga. Union have lost to Borussia more often than any other opponent in the league (nine times, plus two more in the DFB-Pokal), yet Dortmund have been defeated in four of their six visits to the "An der Alten Försterei". We anticipate a potential draw, possibly a 1-1 result, considering Borussia's demanding schedule and their challenging history of matches in Berlin.
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Betting Tips: Union - Borussia Dortmund
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Comparison of Teams Stats
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