Queretaro vs Toluca Prediction 22 August 2026
🔊 The match between Querétaro and Toluca draws attention not only because of the standings battle but also because of the contrast in current form. Both sides have had mixed results to start the season: Querétaro have won just three of their last ten matches, while Toluca have picked up more wins over the same stretch. Both clubs have secured playoff spots, but avoiding losing runs matters even at this early stage of the campaign. A lot in this match will come down to which defence holds up better.
Head-to-Head
The last official meeting between the sides took place on 04 April 2026 and ended 1-0. Here are the key stats from that match (Querétaro were the home side):
- Possession: 24% vs 76%;
- Corners: 3 vs 7;
- Fouls: 12 vs 6;
- Yellow cards: 3 vs 1;
- Shots on target: 6 vs 5.
📊 In 45 official meetings between Querétaro and Toluca, the hosts have won 9, the visitors 20, with 16 draws. Toluca hold a clear edge in goals scored - 68 to 38. On average, matches produce 1.16 goals in the first half and 1.2 in the second, for an overall match average of 2.36.
Head-to-head statistics Queretaro - Toluca
Queretaro Team Overview
Their most recent competitive match took place on in Liga MX, with UNAM Pumas at home against Querétaro. The match ended 0-0.
Match statistics (Querétaro vs UNAM Pumas):
- Possession: 34% vs 66%;
- Corner kicks: 1 vs 6;
- Fouls: 10 vs 12;
- Yellow cards: 3 vs 1;
- Shots on target: 3 vs 4.
Querétaro come into this match with mixed recent form. Over their last five games they have two wins, one defeat and one draw, which reflects an inconsistent run of results. Across their last ten matches, they have won just they have won just three or four times, and their average of one goal scored per game points to limited attacking output. Defensively they are not particularly reliable either, conceding an average of 1.3 goals per game over their last ten matches and around one per game across the season as a whole. Their objective is to stay in the playoff places, though with the season still in its early stages the pressure is not yet acute. The team is prioritising stability over risk.
Match Results: Queretaro
Toluca Team Overview
The visitors' most recent competitive match took place on in Liga MX, with Atlante as the home side and Toluca as the visitors. The match ended 0-0.
Match statistics (Toluca vs Atlante):
- Possession: 57% vs 43%;
- Corner kicks: 7 vs 8;
- Fouls: 7 vs 9;
- Yellow cards: 0 vs 2;
- Shots on target: 2 vs 5.
Toluca have been the more consistent side so far this season. Over their last ten matches they have won five and lost just four, which suggests the squad is well-equipped to compete in the upper half of the table. They are averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game, reflecting a reasonable balance between attack and defence. In their last five matches specifically, Toluca have won twice, lost once and drawn once - a steady run without any prolonged dip in form. Their league objective is also straightforward: stay in the playoff positions, though at this early stage of the season the pressure is relatively low, giving the team room to work on their game without needing to make drastic changes.
Match Results: Toluca
Total Prediction
Head-to-head (average totals):
- home side - 0.84, away side - 1.51;
- in head-to-head matches - 2.36;
- both teams scored: all time - 20 times; at the home side's ground - 9 times.
Average total stats: Querétaro vs Toluca
- in the tournament: 2.25 vs 2.25;
- goals scored: 1.25 vs 1.5;
- first half: 0.5 vs 1;
- second half: 0.75 vs 0.5;
- Querétaro: at home in the tournament - 1.5;
- Toluca: away in the tournament - 1;
- last 10 matches: 1 (home - 1.33) vs 1.4 (away - 0.67).
- Querétaro have scored under 1.5 goals in 10 of their last 11 head-to-head meetings with Toluca (Liga MX).
Corners Prediction
Querétaro: Statistics
- season: average total in the league - 3.75; at home - 4;
- last 10 matches: average total - 5; at home - 3.33.
Toluca: Statistics
- season: average total in the league - 6; away - 4.5;
- last 10 matches: average total - 6.1; away - 5.
- Total Corners - Over 9.5 has landed in 12 of the last 14 head-to-head matches between these sides (Liga MX).
- Total Corners - Over 9.5 has landed in seven consecutive head-to-head matches played at the home side's ground (Liga MX).
- Total Corners - Over 9.5 has landed in 9 of Toluca's last 10 away matches (Liga MX).
Yellow Cards Prediction
Head-to-head matches:
- average total - 3.64 (1.82 for the home side and 1.82 for the away side);
- average total at the home side's ground - 2.68 (1.45 for the home side and 1.23 for the away side).
Querétaro: Statistics
- season: average total in the league - 4.5; at home - 6;
- last 10 matches: average total - 2.9; at home - 5.
Toluca: Statistics
- season: average total in the league - 1; away - 1;
- last 10 matches: average total - 0.9; away - 0.67.
- Total Yellow Cards - Under 5.5 has landed in 7 consecutive head-to-head matches between these sides (Liga MX).
- Total Yellow Cards - Under 5.5 has landed in 13 consecutive Toluca matches.
- Total Yellow Cards - Under 5.5 has landed in 10 of Toluca's last 11 matches (Liga MX).
- Total Yellow Cards - Under 5.5 has landed in 8 consecutive Toluca away matches.
- Total Yellow Cards - Under 5.5 has landed in 6 consecutive Toluca away matches (Liga MX).
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Head-to-head:
- matches played - 45;
- both teams scored (all-time) - 20 times;
- at the home side's ground - 9 times.
Stats: Querétaro vs Toluca
- matches played this tournament: 4 vs 4;
- matches this season with both teams scoring (BTTS): 2 vs 2;
- Querétaro: BTTS at home - 1 (50%);
- Toluca: BTTS away - 0 (0%).
Last 10 matches:
- BTTS: 6 vs 5;
- Querétaro: BTTS at home - 2 (67%);
- Toluca: BTTS away - 0 (0%).
Correct Score Prediction
Most common scorelines (current season):
- most frequent scoreline in the competition: 2-1 (5/36, 13.9%);
- Querétaro at home most often finish matches: 0-1, 3-2 (1/2, 50%);
- Toluca away most often play: 0-0, 0-2 (1/2, 50%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
0-1 - 16.16% (odds 9.5)
1-1 - 10.95% (odds 7.5)
0-0 - 10.24% (odds 13.5)
⭐ Editor's Pick
The statistics point fairly clearly to Querétaro avoiding defeat here. They have a strong home record against this opponent, going unbeaten in 7 of their last 8 Liga MX home matches against them. Their current form is also consistent - Querétaro have gone unbeaten in 11 of their last 12 league matches. Both factors, the head-to-head history at home and the current run, point in the same direction. We're predicting a 1-1 draw. Our pick: Querétaro not to lose.
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Betting Tips: Queretaro - Toluca
in 7 of last 8 home games against Toluca (Liga MX).in 11 of last 12 games (Liga MX).
in 10 of last 11 games against Toluca (Liga MX).
in last 9 away games against Queretaro (Liga MX).in 6 of last 7 away games (Liga MX).in 9 of last 10 Queretaro games.in 6 of last 7 Queretaro games (Liga MX).in 8 of last 9 Toluca away games.in 6 of last 7 Toluca away games (Liga MX).
Comparison of Teams Stats
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