Mirassol vs Gremio Prediction 17 July 2026
🔊 Mirassol host Gremio in round 19 of the Brazilian championship. Both sides are hovering near the relegation zone, so this one carries real weight in the table. The hosts will be looking to make home advantage count, while Gremio want to end a poor run against this opponent.
Head-to-Head
The last official match between the two sides took place on 13 September 2025 and ended 0-1. Here's how the stats looked that day (Grêmio were the home side):
- possession: 56% vs 44%;
- corners: 6 vs 3;
- fouls: 13 vs 15;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 2;
- shots on target: 5 vs 6.
📊 The two sides have met three times in official matches. Here's how the numbers look:
- goals: 8 vs 3;
- average first-half total - 2.33, second half - 1.33;
- average match total - 3.67.
Head-to-head statistics Mirassol - Gremio
Mirassol Team Overview
After 18 rounds, Mirassol sit 19th with 16 points - but that position doesn't tell the full story. Three wins from their last seven league matches have brought them closer to the safety zone. They've been particularly strong at home, where 12 of those 16 points have come from. In their last six matches across all competitions at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Rafael Guanaes' side have won five and drawn one.
The head-to-head record gives the hosts extra confidence. Mirassol have won all three previous official meetings with Grêmio, scoring eight goals in the process. Last season they beat them twice - 4-1 at home and 1-0 away. Two of those three meetings also went over 2.5 goals.
Match Results: Mirassol
Gremio Team Overview
Grêmio are having a rough season. After 18 rounds they sit 16th with 21 points - one place above the relegation zone. The biggest problem is on the road: Luís Castro's side haven't won any of their nine away matches in the league this year - four draws, five defeats. There is one bright spot, though: in four of their last five away games across all competitions, they've kept a clean sheet.
The inconsistent results come down to a lack of punch in attack. Grêmio have scored under 1.5 goals in 10 of their last 11 Série A matches, and in 13 of their last 15 away games across all competitions. During the break, the Porto Alegre side played three friendlies - beating Cascavel (2-1) and Cruzeiro (3-1), then losing to Chapecoense (1-2).
Match Results: Gremio
Prediction for the 1st half
Head-to-head:
- matches played - 3;
- first-half wins for the home side - 1; for the away side - 0; draws - 1;
- average first-half total: 2.33;
- today's hosts average 1.67 goals in the first half, the visitors - 0.67.
First-half stats: Mirassol (home) vs Grêmio (away)
- matches played in the tournament: 9 vs 9;
- wins: 4 (44.44%) vs 0 (0%);
- losses: 0 (0%) vs 3 (33.33%);
- draws: 5 (55.56%) vs 6 (66.67%);
- average goals scored: 1 vs 0.78;
- average goals conceded: 0.22 vs 0.56.
Last 10 matches (overall):
- wins: 4 vs 3;
- losses: 1 vs 1;
- draws: 5 vs 6;
- average first-half total: 1 (scored - 0.7, conceded - 0.3) vs 0.8 (scored - 0.5, conceded - 0.3).
- Grêmio have drawn the first half in 8 of their last 9 matches (Série A).
Match Outcome Prediction
Head-to-head matches:
- played - 3;
- home wins - 3, away wins - 0, draws - 0.
Statistics: Mirassol vs Gremio
- matches in the tournament: 17 vs 18;
- wins: 4 vs 5;
- win percentage: 24% vs 28%;
- losses: 9 vs 7;
- draws: 4 vs 6.
Last 10 matches:
- wins: 6 vs 4;
- losses: 3 vs 2;
- draws: 1 vs 4.
- Gremio wins with a +1.5 handicap in 13 of their last 15 Serie A matches.
- Gremio wins with a +1.5 handicap away from home in 12 of their last 13 matches.
- Gremio wins with a +1.5 handicap in 11 of their last 12 matches.
- Gremio wins with a +1.5 handicap away from home in 6 of their last 7 Serie A matches.
Total Goals Prediction
Head-to-head matches (average total):
- home team - 2.67, away team - 1;
- in head-to-head matches - 3.67;
- both teams scored: 2 times overall; 2 times at the home team's stadium.
Average total statistics: Mirassol vs Gremio
- in the tournament: 2.47 vs 2.39;
- goals scored: 1.06 vs 1.11;
- first half: 0.65 vs 0.44;
- second half: 0.41 vs 0.67;
- Mirassol: home average in the tournament - 1.22;
- Gremio: away average in the tournament - 0.56;
- last 10 matches: 1.3 (home - 1.67) vs 1.5 (away - 1.4).
- Mirassol conceded in 17 of their last 18 Serie A matches.
- Mirassol conceded at home in 9 of their last 10 Serie A matches.
Corners Prediction
Head-to-head matches
- average total corners in head-to-head matches - 9 (2 for the home team and 7 for the away team);
- average total corners at the home team's stadium - 9 (1.5 for the home team and 7.5 for the away team).
Mirassol: Statistics
- season: average corners in the tournament - 5.71; at home - 6.67;
- last 10 matches: average total - 4.3; at home - 4.83.
Gremio: Statistics
- season: average corners in the tournament - 4; away - 3;
- last 10 matches: average total - 3.5; away - 2.4.
- Over 8.5 corners occurred in 11 of Mirassol's last 12 Serie A matches.
- Over 8.5 corners occurred in 8 of Mirassol's last 9 home Serie A matches.
Correct Score Prediction
Most frequent results statistics (current season):
- most common score in the tournament: 1:1 (26/177, 14.7%);
- Mirassol's most common home results: 0:1, 2:1, 2:2 (2/9, 22.2%);
- Gremio's most common away result: 2:1 (3/9, 33.3%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1:0 - 14.49% (odds 6.5)
1:1 - 12.45% (odds 6)
0:0 - 10.69% (odds 8.7)
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Mirassol go into this match in better shape mentally. The team has been building form gradually, plays with confidence at home, and has already shown they can handle Gremio. The visitors, meanwhile, keep struggling on the road and haven't found any consistency yet. Given Mirassol's current form, the home advantage, and a favorable head-to-head record, a Mirassol win is the most logical call. Most likely score - 2:1.
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Betting Tips: Mirassol - Gremio
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Comparison of Teams Stats
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