Gremio vs Mirassol Prediction 5 August 2026
🔊 The second leg of the Copa do Brasil Round of 16 between Grêmio and Mirassol takes place at Arena Grêmio in Porto Alegre. The first match in São Paulo ended 1-1, so both sides are still in it. Grêmio now have the advantage - the decisive game is at home, where they're noticeably more comfortable. For Mirassol, it's a tricky spot: they've already shown they can compete with a higher-profile opponent, but now they'll need to be more aggressive away from home, where any mistake costs a lot more.
Head-to-Head
The last official match between these two sides took place on 02 August 2026 and ended 1-1. Here's the key stats from that game (Mirassol were the home side):
- possession: 53% vs 47%;
- corners: 3 vs 2;
- fouls: 10 vs 8;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 1;
- shots on target: 2 vs 3.
📊 Head-to-head stats from official meetings between Grêmio and Mirassol:
- 5 matches played;
- home wins - 0, away wins - 4, draws - 1;
- goals - 5 vs 11;
- average first-half total - 2, second-half - 1.2;
- average total goals per match - 3.2.
Head-to-head statistics Gremio - Mirassol
Gremio Team Overview
Gremio travelled to São Paulo without being considered favourites, but they were competitive enough - the quality of chances created was roughly even. Mirassol had more of the ball in the first leg, 53% to 47%, though it didn't translate into any real attacking edge. The xG figures were almost identical: 0.98 for Mirassol, 1.00 for Gremio. The visitors created just as much danger without dominating possession.
The shot numbers back that up. Both sides had 12 attempts, but Gremio were more accurate - three on target to two. Mirassol edged the corners, 3-2.
The second leg should look different. At Arena Gremio, the hosts will have to take the game to Mirassol and spend more time in the attacking half. The problem is Luís Castro's side aren't in great shape right now - seven matches without a win, four of them at home. The key question is the same one from the first leg: can they actually finish? The chances were there. The result wasn't.
Match Results: Gremio
Mirassol Team Overview
Mirassol's first leg wasn't ideal in terms of the result. They failed to make home advantage count and, for the first time in five meetings with Grêmio, didn't win. Still, the draw leaves Rafael Guanaes' side in decent shape ahead of the trip to Porto Alegre.
In that first match, Mirassol were no worse than their opponents. They edged possession, had 12 shots, and created roughly as many chances as Grêmio. That said, they never fully controlled the game - the visitors kept finding space to attack.
Now the task gets harder. At the Arena Grêmio, Mirassol will spend more time defending without the ball, and the pressure from the hosts will be considerably greater. Their away form doesn't help either: they've conceded in each of their last 13 road games, and failed to win 12 of those 13. Their best shot is a disciplined defensive shape and quick transitions when Grêmio lose the ball. If the hosts struggle in front of goal again, Mirassol can keep this tie alive.
Match Results: Mirassol
Total Prediction
Head-to-head matches (average total):
- at home side - 1, away side - 2.2;
- in head-to-head matches - 3.2;
- both teams scored: all time - 4 times; at the home team's ground - 0 times.
Average total stats: Grêmio vs Mirassol
- in the tournament: 2.33 vs 2.33;
- goals scored: 2 vs 1.33;
- 1st half: 0.33 vs 1;
- 2nd half: 1.67 vs 0.33;
- Grêmio: at home in the tournament - 2;
- Mirassol: away in the tournament - 1;
- last 10 matches: 1.4 (home - 1.5) vs 1.2 (away - 0.8).
- Grêmio have conceded in 8 matches in a row.
Corners Prediction
Head-to-head
- average total corners in head-to-head matches - 8.2 (5.4 for the home side, 2.8 for the away side);
- average total corners at the home team's ground - 9 (6 for the home side, 3 for the away side).
Grêmio: Stats
- season: average total in the competition - 5; at home - 11;
- last 10 matches: average total - 5.7; at home - 7.
Mirassol: Stats
- season: average total in the competition - 2.67; away - 3;
- last 10 matches: average total - 3.9; away - 3.8.
- Total corners over 8.5 has landed in 9 of Grêmio's last 10 matches.
- Total corners over 8.5 has landed in 6 of Mirassol's last 7 matches.
Both Teams To Score Prediction
Head-to-head:
- matches played - 5;
- both teams scored - 4 times overall;
- at the home team's ground - 0 times.
- Grêmio have scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
Correct Score Prediction
Most common results this season:
- most frequent score in the tournament: 1:1 (21/134, 15.7%);
- Grêmio at home most often finish matches: 2:0 (1/1, 100%);
- Mirassol away most often play: 1:1 (1/1, 100%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1:0 - 15.57% (odds 3.4)
0:0 - 13.94% (odds 2.3)
1:1 - 11.41% (odds 7.5)
⭐ Editor's Pick
The first match showed these two are fairly evenly matched in this particular tie. But the game in Porto Alegre should go differently - Grêmio get home support and will need to push forward.
Mirassol need a win too, so they can't simply repeat the cautious approach from the first leg. That opens up space and should mean chances at both ends.
Grêmio will likely see more of the ball and press higher, but their current form makes a clean sheet hard to back. The best option here is Both Teams To Score - Yes, which has landed in 7 of Grêmio's last 8 matches. A penalty shootout to decide the tie looks quite possible. Predicted score after 90 minutes - 1:1.
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Betting Tips: Gremio - Mirassol
in last 7 games.
in 12 of last 13 away games.in 20 of last 21 Mirassol games.in 7 of last 8 Mirassol away games.in 10 of last 11 games.in last 13 away games.in 10 of last 11 games.Comparison of Teams Stats
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