Mirassol vs Gremio Prediction 2 August 2026
🔊 The first leg of the Brazilian Cup Round of 16 sees Mirassol host Gremio at the Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia. The home side go in as favourites - they're playing in front of their own fans, they're in decent form, and there's a psychological edge too: Mirassol have won all four previous meetings with the Porto Alegre club. Gremio arrive in poor form, and an early exit from the Brazilian Cup could put Luís Castro's future as head coach in serious doubt. For the visitors, the priority is to avoid a heavy defeat - anything else and the second leg at the Arena Gremio becomes very difficult.
Head-to-Head
The last official match between the two sides took place on 17 July 2026 and ended 2-1. Here's how the stats looked that day (Mirassol were the home side):
- possession: 44% vs 56%;
- corners: 5 vs 4;
- fouls: 14 vs 9;
- yellow cards: 1 vs 3;
- shots on target: 3 vs 4.
📊 Head-to-head stats from official meetings between Mirassol and Gremio:
- 4 matches played;
- home wins - 4, away wins - 0, draws - 0;
- goals scored - 10 vs 4;
- average first-half total - 2.25, second-half - 1.25;
- average match total - 3.5.
Head-to-head statistics Mirassol - Gremio
Mirassol Team Overview
Their last official match was played in the Série A (Mirassol at home, Remo Belém away). Final score: 2-1.
Match stats (Mirassol vs Remo Belém):
- possession: 54% vs 46%;
- corners: 6 vs 3;
- fouls: 15 vs 5;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 2;
- shots on target: 4 vs 2.
Rafaël Guanaes's side got past Bragantino in the previous round (1-1, 2-1). Since then, Mirassol played eight matches across all competitions - four wins, one draw, three defeats.
They arrive at this match on the back of a decent run in Série A, though: beat Grêmio 2-1, drew 1-1 away at Vasco da Gama, then won at home against Remo 2-1.
At José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol are a different proposition - seven wins and one draw in their last eight home matches. Add in a strong head-to-head record against Grêmio, and the hosts are the clear favourites going into the first leg.
Match Results: Mirassol
Gremio Team Overview
The away side's last official match was played in the Copa Sudamericana (Gremio at home, Bolivar away). The match ended 0-1.
Match stats (Gremio vs Bolivar):
- Possession: 65% vs 35%
- Corners: 11 vs 1
- Fouls: 16 vs 9
- Yellow cards: 3 vs 1
- Shots on target: 11 vs 6
Luis Castro's side comfortably got past Confiança (2-0, 3-0) in the Copa do Brasil Round of 32 - Confiança being a Série C outfit. Since then, the Immortal Tricolors have played nine official matches across all competitions: two wins, three draws, four defeats.
Grêmio arrive in Mirassol on the back of a rough run. They're out of the Copa Sudamericana knockout stage, and in their last three Série A rounds they've managed just one point from two defeats. Six matches without a win now.
That said, writing them off completely would be premature. Grêmio have scored in nine of their last ten matches, and Mirassol have conceded in nine of their last ten. Castro's side will get chances going forward.
Match Results: Gremio
Prediction for the 1st half
Head-to-head:
- matches played - 4;
- first-half wins for the home side - 2; for the away side - 0; draws - 1;
- average first-half total: 2.25;
- today's hosts average 1.75 goals in the first half, the visitors - 0.5.
First-half stats: Mirassol (home) vs Grêmio (away)
- matches played in the tournament: 1 vs 1;
- wins: 0 (0%) vs 1 (100%);
- losses: 0 (0%) vs 0 (0%);
- draws: 1 (100%) vs 0 (0%);
- average goals scored: 2 vs 1;
- average goals conceded: 1 vs 0.
Last 10 matches (overall):
- wins: 4 vs 2;
- losses: 1 vs 3;
- draws: 5 vs 5;
- average first-half total: 1.2 (scored - 0.8, conceded - 0.4) vs 1.4 (scored - 0.6, conceded - 0.8).
- Grêmio have conceded in the first half in 6 of their last 7 matches.
Total Prediction
Head-to-head matches (average total):
- at home side - 2.5, away side - 1;
- in head-to-head matches - 3.5;
- both teams scored: all time - 3 times; at the home team's ground - 3 times.
Average total stats: Mirassol vs Gremio
- in the tournament: 2.5 vs 2.5;
- goals scored: 1.5 vs 2.5;
- 1st half: 1 vs 0.5;
- 2nd half: 0.5 vs 2;
- Mirassol: at home in the tournament - 2;
- Gremio: away in the tournament - 3;
- last 10 matches: 1.2 (home - 1.6) vs 1.6 (away - 1.75).
- Mirassol have conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches.
- Gremio have scored in 9 of their last 10 matches.
Corners Prediction
Head-to-head
- average total corners in head-to-head matches - 9 (2.75 for the home side, 6.25 for the away side);
- average total corners at the home side's ground - 9 (2.67 for the home side, 6.33 for the away side).
Mirassol: Stats
- season: average total in the competition - 2.5; at home - 2;
- last 10 matches: average total - 4.4; at home - 5.
Grêmio: Stats
- season: average total in the competition - 6.5; away - 2;
- last 10 matches: average total - 5.7; away - 3.75.
- Total corners over 8.5 has landed in 6 Mirassol matches in a row.
- Total corners over 8.5 has landed in 9 Grêmio matches in a row.
Both Teams To Score Prediction
Head-to-head:
- matches played - 4;
- both teams scored - 3 times overall;
- at the home team's ground - 3 times.
- Gremio have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
Correct Score Prediction
Most common scorelines this season:
- most frequent result in the tournament: 1-1 (20/126, 15.9%);
- Mirassol at home most often finish matches: 2-1 (1/1, 100%);
- Grêmio away most often play: 0-3 (1/1, 100%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1-1 - 12.53% (odds 5.5)
1-0 - 8.93% (odds 5)
0-1 - 8.42% (odds 7.5)
- Mirassol have won 2-1 at home in 3 of their last 4 matches.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Grêmio has already become something of a "familiar opponent" for Mirassol: the head-to-head record and the current form of both teams point in favor of the hosts. However, Rafael Guanaes' side still cannot be considered completely reliable at the back.
Grêmio have both scored and conceded in six of their last seven matches, making a game with goals at both ends a likely scenario. Our main prediction is Both Teams to Score (Yes). At the same time, Mirassol's outstanding home form suggests that the hosts should edge this encounter. Predicted score: 2:1.
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Betting Tips: Mirassol - Gremio
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