Uruguay vs Argentina Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 21 March 2025
🔊 Can Argentina extend their lead over their closest rival in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers? In the upcoming clash, Lionel Scaloni's side are not seen as the favorites, with a slight edge given to Uruguay, who will host the match at the Estadio Centenario in Montevideo.
Head-to-Head
In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Argentina hold the advantage with a 65% win rate. Interestingly, in their last 10 encounters, only two ended in a draw. In the first round of the current qualifying campaign, Uruguay pulled off a stunning away victory against Argentina, winning 2-0. It's worth noting that recent meetings haven't been particularly high-scoring. In fact, in 6 of the last 7 games, more than two goals were not scored. Therefore, it might be wise to consider a bet on total goals under 2.5.
Head-to-head statistics Uruguay - Argentina
Uruguay Team Overview
Uruguay's national team has grown stronger in recent years; they secured third place at the recent Copa America, knocking out Brazil in the playoffs. They even led the World Cup 2026 qualifiers for a significant period. However, they've encountered some issues in their latest matches. Since the Copa America, they've played six games but managed to secure a win only against Colombia (3-2). That match was the most prolific during this period, as only three goals were scored across the other five encounters. In November last year, Uruguay held Brazil to a 1-1 draw. Despite their struggle to find the back of the net often, Darwin Núñez is currently second in the top scorers' list.
Match Results: Uruguay
Argentina Team Overview
Following their World Cup triumph in Qatar, Lionel Messi didn't retire from international duty but instead helped Argentina clinch another Copa America title last year. However, he wasn't the hero of the final against Colombia; it was Lautaro Martinez who netted the only goal in stoppage time. In the current qualifying campaign, the Albiceleste haven't been at their best, suffering three defeats already. Nonetheless, they lead the standings, five points clear of Uruguay. In their last outing, Scaloni's squad narrowly defeated Peru 1-0, with Martinez again scoring the decisive goal. Messi tops the qualification scoring chart, but he has not been called up for the current squad due to injury. Injured Montiel, Lo Celso, and Dybala will also miss out.
Match Results: Argentina
🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards
The appointed referee for this clash is Juan Gabriel Benitez from Paraguay. Over the past year, he has officiated in two international matches, including Uruguay's thrashing of Bolivia in the Copa America (5-0), where he issued just one yellow card. In contrast, the Chile vs. Bolivia encounter in the current tournament was much more heated, with Benitez handing out seven cautions.
Uruguay holds the edge in yellow cards this season (2 compared to 1.1). On average, their matches see 3.9 warnings issued. However, their first-round head-to-head saw a total of seven yellows. We anticipate the upcoming match will be equally intense. Thus, a potential bet could be on total yellow cards over 4.5.
⚽️ Goal Prediction
Uruguay triumphed over Argentina in their last head-to-head, yet prior to that, they failed to score against them in six encounters. The hosts might find a way past Emiliano Martinez, who has shown vulnerability recently, but it's unlikely they'll do so more than once. Therefore, we suggest a bet on Uruguay total goals under 1.5.
🚩 Corner Prediction
Uruguay leads in corners this season (5.1 compared to 4.3). Their matches average 8.4 corners, while Argentina's average is slightly lower at 7.8. In their previous head-to-head, the world champions dominated this statistic (8-1). Much will depend on the match's flow, but Argentina total corners over 3.5 seems highly likely to hit.
Editor's Prediction
Uruguay are seen as the favorites for the upcoming clash, largely because they're playing at home. Additionally, Bielsa's squad managed to defeat Argentina in the first round. However, they've been drawing a lot recently, so a draw is quite possible here as well, with a potential scoreline of 1-1.
Darwin Núñez has been struggling with his finishing, particularly noticeable in his recent performances for Liverpool, so it's uncertain if he'll find the net in this match. Argentina will rely on Martínez and Álvarez up front, both in excellent form, and either could make the difference and secure points for their team. Thus, we'll settle on the option that Argentina won't lose.
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Betting Tips: Uruguay - Argentina
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in 12 of last 13 home games (World Cup Qual, CONMEBOL, South America).in 9 of last 10 games (World Cup Qual, CONMEBOL, South America).
in 8 of last 9 games.in 13 of last 15 away games.in 12 of last 14 away games (World Cup Qual, CONMEBOL, South America).in 6 of last 7 games against Uruguay.Comparison of Teams Stats
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