Burnley vs Derby Prediction 19 September 2026
🔊 Burnley and Derby County meet early in the season in a match between two sides already in the relegation zone. Both teams are struggling badly for points: the hosts are yet to win in seven matches, while the visitors have just one victory. The table makes this a must-focus fixture - Burnley are just one point from safety, and Derby County are among the bottom clubs. With both sides highly motivated, a tense, result-driven contest is expected.
Head-to-Head
📊 The two sides have met three times in official matches, with a combined goal tally of 2-1. On average, 0.67 goals were scored in the first half and 0.33 in the second, giving an average of 1 goal per game.
Head-to-head statistics Burnley - Derby
Burnley Team Overview
Burnley have made a dreadful start to the season: they have lost four of their last five matches and drawn three times in that same period. Across the previous ten games they managed just one win from five defeats, which is reflected in their scoring numbers - only one goal scored per game against 1.8 conceded over that ten-match stretch, and even higher across the season as a whole (2.29).
The weakness in attack is backed up by a consistent trend: under 1.5 goals in each of their last seven matches in a row. Defensively, the problems are systemic - Burnley are conceding a lot of chances at their own end, which makes things difficult even against sides in the lower half of the table.
Match Results: Burnley
Derby Team Overview
Derby County are in a prolonged slump of their own: five defeats in their last five league rounds and just one win in a ten-match stretch highlight the team's fragility both in attack and without the ball. Their scoring rate is low - 1.1 goals scored and almost two conceded per game across their last ten matches - and their season-wide average is even lower, at 0.86 goals scored per game.
The club are fighting to stay in the league, currently sitting among the bottom three in the table. High motivation to avoid relegation does not always translate into points, due to problems with converting chances.
Match Results: Derby
Total Goals Prediction
In matches involving Derby County, Total Goals - Under 3.5 has landed in 8 of their last 9 games, reflecting the team's low scoring output. Both sides have also been unproductive this season: Burnley average 1.14 goals per game, while Derby County average 0.86. On that basis, the pick here is Total Goals - Under 3.5 at odds of 1.36*.
Corners Prediction
Burnley have taken fewer than 6.5 corners in 8 of their last 9 matches - a consistent trend both at home and across the season as a whole. With that in mind, the Burnley Team Total Corners - Under 6.5 at 1.55* looks a reasonable bet.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Burnley have scored and conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches, which points to a high likelihood of goals at both ends. The season statistics also show that both sides concede regularly: Burnley average 2.29 goals against per game, Derby County 1.86. On that basis, Both Teams to Score - Yes at 1.73* is worth considering.
Reliable Bet
Burnley have been highly consistent in attack, scoring in 9 of their last 10 matches. Given that record, the bet on Burnley Team Total - Over 0.5 at odds of 1.18* looks reliable.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm's calculations, the most likely outcomes are 1-0 (11.68%), 1-1 (11.02%) and 2-1 (8.43%). These three scorelines reflect the cautious nature of both teams' play and are consistent with their current scoring levels. The 1-0 result has the highest probability, though the gap between the first and second options is minimal.
*Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.*
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Both sides come into this match with notable attacking problems, yet neither has been reliable defensively either. Burnley have scored under 1.5 goals in seven consecutive matches - a trend clearly supported by their average of one goal per game over their last ten. Yet even with that weak attack, the hosts concede regularly: their defence makes frequent errors, and their average goals conceded per game across the season exceeds two. Derby County are also not clinical in front of goal, but both teams have been consistently vulnerable at the back. With both sides having plenty to play for, the scenario points towards goals at each end - Burnley's run of nine consecutive home matches in which both teams have scored reinforces that view. The main prediction is Both Teams to Score - Yes. Predicted score: 2-1.
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Betting Tips: Burnley - Derby
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