Athletic vs Alaves Prediction 19 September 2026
🔊 Athletic got an unexpected free midweek. Their match against Levante was due to be played in Valencia, but the weather and the state of the pitch intervened and the La Liga fixture was postponed. As a result, the hosts return to San Mamés after a full week without football. Alavés were not so fortunate: on Tuesday the side played a gruelling 90 minutes against Valencia and lost 0-1.
For the Basque derby, Athletic's extra freshness could prove important. This is especially the case after the draw with Elche, which left Edin Terzić dissatisfied. In that match Athletic spent a lot of time around the opposition penalty area but struggled to fill it effectively and rarely converted their pressure into dangerous shots. They have now had more time to work on those mistakes than originally planned.
Athletic: Derby edge, but lacking attacking flair
📊 The two clubs have met 31 times in head-to-head fixtures. Athletic have won 17 of those, Alavés seven, with seven draws. Athletic have won more than half of the head-to-head meetings, though high-scoring encounters are rare. The average total stands at just 2.23 goals, and both teams scored in only 39% of matches. So Athletic have a clear edge over the distance, but they tend to achieve it through control rather than open exchanges.
Head-to-head statistics Athletic - Alaves
Athletic: a timely break arrives just when needed
Edin Terzić's side have seven points from five matches and a goal difference of 7:6. It has been an inconsistent start, but before the break Athletic showed just how difficult they can be at San Mamés: they comfortably beat Atlético 3-0, then created enough chances against Elche, even if they had to settle for a draw (1-1).
The postponement of the trip to Levante has slightly changed their situation. Instead of a second match in four days, the Basques have had a normal training week and the chance to come into the derby fresh. For their style of intensive football, that is a meaningful advantage.
Match Results: Athletic Bilbao
Alavés: Bright Start Stalled by Back-to-Back Defeats
Alavés are sitting comfortably - 10 points and sixth place after six rounds. They have also conceded just six times. Even when things haven't clicked going forward, they have rarely allowed opponents too much.
However, after a promising August, the first problems have emerged. Alavés have lost two matches in a row. Now, with barely any time to recover, they face a trip to Athletic, where the hosts will surely look to test their visitors' freshness from the first minute.
Match Results: Deportivo Alaves
Latest news
Athletic Bilbao
❌ Dani Vivian and Payo Canales have not been included in the squad for the rescheduled match against Levante and remain under medical supervision.
Deportivo Alaves
🚑 Mikel Rodríguez is out for an extended period with a cruciate ligament injury. Facundo Garcés and Aitor Mañas are also unavailable.
⚽ Goals Prediction
Both sides have been defensively solid so far. Athletic have conceded 6 goals in five rounds, while Alavés have conceded the same in six. For the visitors, that is particularly telling - even with two recent defeats, their defence is one of the reasons they remain in the top half of the table.
The derby's own history rarely produces chaos either. The average number of goals in head-to-head meetings barely exceeds two, and both teams scoring has happened in fewer than half of those encounters. We are more likely to see a long battle for the first goal than open football from the off. The pick: Total Goals - Under 2.5 at 1.90*.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Athletic average 6.4 corners per match. They earned at least 6 in three of their five league rounds, and at San Mamés their average is close to seven. The derby setting should add to that volume. Alavés tend to sit deeper and cede territory, while Athletic are happy to stretch defences down the flanks. Our selection: Athletic Club Team Total Corners - Over 5.5 at 1.58*.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
Alavés have picked up 14 bookings and committed 82 fouls in six rounds; Athletic have 10 bookings and 53 fouls in five matches. That means the visitors foul roughly 1.5 times more often per match. Away from home, that tendency could be even more pronounced. The hosts will control possession and drive forward quickly down the flanks, so their opponents will have to do a lot of defensive work and regularly stop transitions. We are taking Alavés to receive more yellow cards.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐️ Editorial Prediction
The Basque derby comes at a convenient time for Athletic. The team have had an unplanned rest, they are at home, and they will surely want to make up for the draw against Elche. But that does not mean an automatic thrashing is on the cards. Alavés concede few goals and like to keep things tight. The hosts are also unlikely to open up unnecessarily, especially if they take the lead first. Predicted score: 1-0. Main bet: Total Goals - Under 2.5.
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Betting Tips: Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alaves
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