Athletic vs Alaves Prediction 11 May 2025
🔊 Do the Basques have any morale left after their trip to Manchester? One of the standout fixtures in Sunday's La Liga schedule is the clash between Athletic and Alaves. The stage is set at San Mames for a captivating encounter. Both clubs are highly motivated as the season draws to a close: the Lions are eyeing a spot in the Champions League, while the Glorious aim to maintain their status in the top tier of Spanish football. Let's take a look at the bookmakers' early odds: a win for the hosts is at 1.85, while a victory for the visitors stands at 4.9.
Head-to-Head
📊 Alaves have been unable to secure a victory at San Mames since 2005. Since then, the Basques have remained unbeaten in 12 consecutive home head-to-heads. Earlier this season, the teams couldn't determine a winner at Mendizorrotza, ending in a 1-1 draw.
Head-to-head statistics Athletic - Alaves
Athletic Bilbao Team Overview
🔴 The past week has been a tough one for Athletic, filled with disappointing moments. First, the Basques suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat at the hands of Manchester United on their home turf. This was followed by a challenging away match at the Reale Arena, where the Lions struggled to find their rhythm. Over the course of 90 minutes, Ernesto Valverde's squad managed just one shot on target with a total xG of 0.17. Finally, their visit to Old Trafford last Thursday turned into a complete debacle, ending in a 4-1 loss. Now, it's crucial for Athletic to focus on their objectives in the domestic league. Currently, the Basques sit within the Champions League spots, holding a four-point cushion over their nearest rival.
Match Results: Athletic Bilbao
Deportivo Alaves Team Overview
🔵 Alaves are on a three-match unbeaten run. Currently, the "Glorious" sit three points clear of the relegation zone. In their last outing, Eduardo Coudet's squad managed to hold Atletico to a goalless draw at Mendizorrotza. While the clash lacked flair, it was filled with intriguing tactical maneuvers. A quick look at the expected goals tells the story: 0.7 to 0.54 in favor of Alaves. The Argentine coach favors a 4-2-3-1 formation, focusing on wing play and vertical football. However, the "Bean Destroyers" have failed to score more than once in each of their last six matches.
Match Results: Deportivo Alaves
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Athletic Bilbao
📣 After the setback at Old Trafford (1-4), Ernesto Valverde praised his team's performance: "We played very well and kept our chances alive for 80 minutes, staying close to their penalty area and putting pressure on the opponent. But the last 10 minutes were extremely poor, and football is a 90-minute game, not 80 or 75."
🔝 The club's standout performer this season is Oihan Sancet, who has netted 15 goals in the current La Liga campaign.
❌ Unfortunately, Oihan Sancet is still recovering from a muscle injury, complicating Athletic's task this coming Sunday. Also sidelined are Iñaki Williams (muscle injury) and Nico Williams (pelvic injury). Due to an accumulation of yellow cards, Ernesto Valverde will have to manage without Alejandro Berenguer and Andoni Gorosabel.
Deportivo Alaves
📣 Ahead of the derby at San Mamés, Argentine center-back Facundo Garcés spoke to the media: “I'm very pleased with how our team is performing defensively. By securing our own goal, we always have a chance to turn the game in our favor. We just need to convert our chances into goals, being effective in the opponent's half. I'm convinced that emotions will be running high in the upcoming derby. Nonetheless, our team is capable of challenging such a formidable opponent and achieving success at San Mamés. We shouldn't be afraid; we need to showcase our individuality and competence in team interactions.”
🔝 This season has been particularly successful for 35-year-old Kike García. While the Spanish veteran managed just three goals last campaign, he has already netted 12 times this season.
❌ The "Bean Destroyers" have only one player in the infirmary: Abdel Abqar. However, the loss of the Moroccan defender, an irreplaceable part of the club's defensive setup, has been a significant blow for Eduardo Coudet.
🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards
The main referee for this matchup will be Jose Montero. He has officiated Alaves games twice this season, and interestingly, "the Glorious" have not secured a win in either. On average, the Spanish referee issues 5.18 warnings per game and awards 0.41 penalties. In 4 of the last 5 encounters involving the club from Vitoria-Gasteiz, there have been at least 5 yellow cards shown. We suggest focusing on the following bet - total yellow cards over 4.5.
⚽️ Goal Prediction
In the last 6 matches featuring Alaves, there have been no more than 2 goals scored. Eduardo Coudet's side plays cautious football, emphasizing compactness in their positional defense, which is a key reason for this trend. A similar pattern is evident in the last 9 head-to-head meetings between "the Lions" and "the Bean Destroyers." Our recommendation is under 2.5 total goals.
🚩 Corner Prediction
The absence of the Williams brothers due to injuries will undoubtedly affect Athletic's wing play. We anticipate a slow-paced match, resulting in numerous vertical passes and long balls. In 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches between these teams, there have been no more than 10 corners taken. This trend is also consistent with most of each club's recent games. Our pick is under 10.5 total corners.
Editorial Prediction
In the upcoming clash, expect a hard-fought battle with few goals scored, as indicated by the trends from the teams' previous encounters. The under 2.5 goals bet has hit in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these sides, as well as in nine of Alavés' last ten La Liga matches. We don't anticipate a change in this pattern.
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Betting Tips: Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alaves
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