Ajax vs Excelsior Prediction 19 September 2026
📢 Ajax and Excelsior have both made confident starts to the new season and sit in the upper half of the table after six rounds. The hosts have 13 points and are fourth, while the visitors are sixth with 10. Both sides have been hard to beat and have shown well in attack, so Excelsior head into this tough test against one of the strongest sides in the league in decent form.
Head-to-Head
📊 In official matches between Ajax and Excelsior, the two sides have met 26 times. The hosts have won 18, the visitors 2, with 6 draws. Ajax also hold the advantage in goals, having scored 74 against 27. On average, there are 1.77 goals per first half and 2.12 per second half, giving an overall match average of 3.88 goals.
Head-to-head statistics Ajax - Excelsior
Ajax Amsterdam Team Overview
Ajax sit fourth with 13 points and have made a confident start to the new season. They have won seven of their last ten matches and suffered just one defeat. Their attacking output has been particularly impressive over that run, averaging 3.3 goals per game. At home, though, they have been somewhat more restrained - in only one of their last eight matches on their own ground have they scored more than two goals. Despite that trend, their high scoring rate and consistent points haul have kept Ajax among the frontrunners at the start of the season.
Match Results: Ajax Amsterdam
Excelsior Team Overview
Excelsior are not far behind their opponents: ten points and sixth place after the opening rounds. Taking the end of last season into account, they have won six of their last ten matches, drawn two and lost two. Over that period they are averaging 2.5 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, maintaining a decent balance between attack and defence. One thing that stands out is their ability to avoid heavy defeats: in 22 of their last 23 league matches, Excelsior have not lost by more than one goal.
Match Results: Excelsior
Latest news
Ajax Amsterdam
Ajax have a few injury concerns heading into the match: Aaron Baumann is definitely out, while Daley Blind, Ryan Bounouh and Simon Adingra are all close to returning from their respective injuries.
Excelsior
Excelsior come into this match with no injury or suspension concerns.
Total Goals Prediction
Total Goals - Under 4.5 has landed in 17 of Ajax's last 19 Eredivisie matches, pointing to a consistent low trend for this line. On top of that, Ajax's average of goals per match across their last 10 home games is 3.2, and Excelsior average 3 goals per away match - neither of which exceeds the 4.5 threshold. On that basis, Total Goals - Under 4.5 looks a reasonable bet at odds of 1.41*.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm's calculations, the most likely outcomes for this match are 2:1 (7.66%), 2:2 (6.29%) and 1:2 (6.26%). Of these, 2:1 has the highest probability, though the other options are close in likelihood. This distribution reflects the potential for goals and an exchange of scoring from both sides.
Reliable Bet
Total Goals - Over 2.5 has landed in 10 consecutive head-to-head matches between these two sides, which points to a consistent trend. Both teams are also scoring freely this season - Ajax are averaging 3.17 goals per match and Excelsior 2.17. That makes Total Goals - Over 2.5 a reliable option at odds of 1.25*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Ajax are clear favourites for this match given their higher quality and home advantage, but Excelsior have also made a strong start to the season. The visitors have kept the margin to under two goals in 22 of their last 23 league matches, while Ajax have scored more than two goals only once in their previous eight home matches. There are therefore fewer grounds for a heavy home win than the difference in class might suggest. Our bet is Excelsior - Handicap +2.
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Betting Tips: Ajax Amsterdam - Excelsior
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