Leones Neg. vs Atletico Morelia Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 15 November 2026
📢 Leones Negros and Atlético Morelia are still battling for a place in the Liga de Expansión MX final. The first leg ended 0-1, so the tie remains open ahead of the return leg. Both teams had good regular seasons, finishing second and third respectively. Atlético Morelia arrive in good form, with four wins in their last five matches, while Leones Negros have been less consistent. However, playing at home could be important in deciding who becomes the tournament’s second finalist.
Head-to-Head
Atlético Morelia beat Leones Negros 1-0 in their most recent Liga de Expansión MX meeting on 13 November 2026. Despite having less possession, the home side had 18 shots to the visitors’ 6 and scored the only goal after a goalless first half.
In 39 official meetings, Leones Negros have won 18 times, Atlético Morelia 15 times, and the other 6 matches ended in draws. Leones Negros also have a better goal difference, 46:38. At home, they have won 9 of their 19 meetings with this opponent.
Head-to-head statistics Leones Neg. - Atletico Morelia
Regularly scores and concedes at home
Leones Negros lost 1-0 away to Atlético Morelia in their last Liga de Expansión MX match on 13 November 2026. The visitors had 59% possession but managed only 6 shots to the hosts’ 18, with just one shot on target.
Leones Negros are in a difficult position after losing the first leg of the semi-final 0-1. They now need to overturn the deficit at home, drawing on their attacking potential. In their last five matches, the hosts have recorded three wins and two defeats, while in their last ten they have won five times and lost four. They average 2.13 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per match, pointing to a prolific attack but also a defence that is not entirely reliable. Leones Negros have also scored and conceded in six consecutive home matches. The need to overturn the deficit could force the hosts to play even more aggressively.
Match Results: Leones Negros
Advantage ahead of the second leg
Atlético Morelia beat Leones Negros 1-0 at home in their most recent Liga de Expansión MX match on 13 November 2026. After a goalless first half, the home side scored the only goal. They had 18 shots to their opponents’ 6 despite having less possession: 41% to 59%.
Atlético Morelia took an important step towards the final with a 1-0 win in the first leg of the semi-final. They go into the return leg in good form, with four wins and one defeat in their last five matches. Their record over ten matches is also fairly solid: five wins, two draws and three defeats. They average 1.69 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per match, suggesting a reasonable balance between attack and defence. Atlético Morelia do not need to force the issue now, as even a draw would preserve their aggregate lead. However, pressure from opponents who need to overturn the deficit could make the away side’s task considerably harder.
Match Results: Zacatepec
Match Result Prediction
Leones Negros have not lost at home in seven of their last eight head-to-head meetings with Atlético Morelia. This season, they have avoided defeat in five of their seven home matches. However, Atlético Morelia have won four of their eight away matches, so the outcome is uncertain. The prediction is Double Chance - 1X (Leones Negros to win or draw) at odds of 1.60*.
Total Goals Prediction
There were more than 1.5 goals in 24 of Leones Negros’ last 25 matches. In their last 10 home matches, they scored an average of 3 goals and conceded 1.75, while Atlético Morelia scored an average of 1.4 and conceded 1.6 in their last 10 away matches. The counterargument is that 9 of Atlético Morelia’s last 10 matches had fewer than 3.5 goals. Total Goals - Over 2.5, at odds of 1.70*, remains a justified option.
*Odds are approximate and may vary between bookmakers.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm’s calculations, the top three scorelines are 1:1 (10.56%), 1:2 (8.17%) and 2:1 (7.5%). Our predicted score is 2:1.
⭐ Editor’s Pick
The bookmakers see no clear favourite for the second leg, reflecting how evenly matched the two teams are. Both sides have good attacking potential but are not always reliable defensively. Leones Negros’ record is particularly telling: they have scored and conceded at least one goal in six consecutive home matches. Atlético Morelia also score regularly and are unlikely to focus solely on defending. The editor’s main pick is therefore Both Teams to Score - Yes.
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Betting Tips: Leones Negros - Zacatepec
in 7 of last 8 home games against Zacatepec.in 24 of last 25 Leones Negros games (Liga de Expansión MX).in 11 of last 12 Zacatepec games.in 10 of last 11 Zacatepec games (Liga de Expansión MX).in 21 of last 23 games (Liga de Expansión MX).in last 12 home games (Liga de Expansión MX).in last 9 games.in last 8 games (Liga de Expansión MX).in 13 of last 14 games.in 12 of last 13 games (Liga de Expansión MX).in last 6 home games (Liga de Expansión MX).in last 16 games.in last 15 games (Liga de Expansión MX).in last 8 away games (Liga de Expansión MX).Comparison of Teams Stats
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